Russian Crude Oil: After the new sanctions imposed by the US on major exporters of Russian crude oil are fully implemented, energy market experts believe that the import of Russian oil to India will decline rapidly in the near future, although it will not stop completely.

US sanctions have come into effect on Rosneft, Lukoil and their majority-owned companies from November 21. After these restrictions, it has become almost impossible to buy or sell crude oil from these companies.

India imported an average of 17 lakh barrels of Russian oil per day this year. It is expected to increase to 18–19 lakh barrels per day in November, because refineries are buying more and more cheap oil before the ban comes into force. But there is a possibility of a sharp decline in its supply in December and January. According to experts, it can come down to about 4 lakh barrels per day.

How did India’s dependence on Russian oil increase?

India, traditionally dependent on West Asian crude, started buying large quantities of oil from Russia after the Ukraine war started in February 2022. Due to Western sanctions and reduced demand from Europe, Russia started selling crude oil at a huge discount. As a result, India’s Russian oil imports increased from 1% to almost 40% of total imports. Even in November, Russia remained India’s largest oil supplier, accounting for about one-third of total imports.

Decline certain in December-January

Kpler research analyst Sumit Ritolia said that we expect a clear decline in Russian crude oil flows to India in the near future, especially in December and January. “Deliveries have slowed since October 2021, but given Russia’s capacity as intermediaries and alternative financial management, it is too early to draw final conclusions.”

Following US sanctions, Reliance Industries, HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Mangalore Refinery have currently stopped purchasing Russian oil. The only exception is Nayara Energy, which is backed by Rosneft and is highly dependent on Russian oil in the absence of alternative sources following European sanctions.

Ritolia said that except Nayara’s Vadiner plant, no Indian refiner is willing to take the risks associated with OFAC-designated entities. “It will take time for buyers to rearrange their contracts, supply routes, ownership structures and payment channels.”

impact on indian market

Cheap Russian oil has been a major source of profit for Indian refiners in the last two years. Due to this, the retail prices of petrol and diesel have remained stable despite the instability in the international market. India meets 88% of its oil requirements through imports.

Now that US sanctions have come into full force, India’s Russian oil imports have entered an unstable and uncertain phase. Experts believe that there will be no complete stoppage of oil from Russia, but there will be a clear and sharp decline in its supply in the near future.

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Russian Crude Oil: The intentions of US President Donald Trump, who is trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war, are now showing results. After American sanctions, India has now gradually started reducing the purchase of cheap crude oil from Russia. After buying oil at concessional rates for almost three years, Indian oil companies may now have to pay higher prices for oil.

great dependence on Russia

HMEL, a joint venture between Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) and Mittal Group, has announced that it will no longer buy crude oil from Russia. HMEL has become the first Indian company to formally announce stop buying oil from Moscow after US sanctions.

India imports about 86 percent of its oil needs. By mid-2022, Russia had become India’s largest oil supplier and was supplying about one-third of the oil to India at cheap prices. India was importing about 1.75 million barrels of oil daily from Russia, which mainly included companies like Rosneft and Lukoil.

What will be the effect?

Recently America has imposed new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. This has had a direct impact on shipping, insurance and trading networks. Banks have now become cautious about these transactions, due to which transaction risk and low profits have become a challenge for Indian companies. Market experts say that now volatility in crude oil prices may increase. According to Rahul Khatri, VP (Commodities), Mehta Equities, due to US sanctions, a situation of uncertainty has arisen in global oil supply.

At the same time, Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, warned that the increase in oil prices could have a direct impact on India’s inflation. He said that “India will have to pay higher prices for oil imports, which may increase economic pressure.” Meanwhile, Reliance Industries and Indian Oil Corporation have stopped new purchases from Russia, while Bharat Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery have started increasing imports from the US and Gulf countries.

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India’s import of crude oil from America has reached its record level since 2022 in the month of October. This is being seen as an important step towards reducing dependence on Russian oil and reducing trade tensions with the Donald Trump administration.

According to the data of energy advisory company Kpler, till October 27, India imported 5.40 lakh barrels of crude oil per day from America, which is the highest level after 2022. By the end of this month, this figure is expected to reach 5.75 lakh barrels per day, while the booking for November is likely to be at the level of 4 to 4.5 lakh barrels per day. This figure is much higher than the average of three lakh barrels per day so far this year.

Purchase increased due to prices and economic reasons

Kepler’s Chief Research Analyst (Refining, Supply and Modeling) Sumit Ritolia said that this increase in US oil imports is mainly due to economic reasons. Due to the increasing difference in prices of Brent and WTI crude oil, competitive price of American oil, and declining demand from China, Indian refineries found it profitable to buy oil from America.

However, Russia still remains India’s largest oil supplier and accounts for about one-third of total Indian imports. Iraq is in second place in this matter, while Saudi Arabia remains as the third major supplier. News agency PTI, citing government and oil industry sources, said that Indian refineries have increased the purchase of American Midland WTI and Mars grade crude oil in recent months.

The move is aimed at diversifying supply sources and signaling cooperation with the US. This change has happened at a time when Western countries’ sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil have become more stringent. Till now many refineries of India have been purchasing oil from these companies only.

trade tension reduction strategy

This increase in American oil imports is also believed to be related to India’s recent strategy to reduce trade tensions with America. In August, the Trump administration had imposed a duty of up to 50 percent on goods imported from India, of which 25 percent was imposed as a penalty for continuing to buy oil from Russia.

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Russian Crude Oil Purchase: India’s crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first fortnight of October, ending the three-month decline from July to September. According to the data related to the movement of ships, Indian refineries are working at full capacity to meet the festive demand, due to which there has been an improvement in imports.

Arrival increased after three months

India’s crude oil imports from Russia had declined from 20 lakh barrels per day (BPD) in June to 16 lakh BPD in September. However, preliminary figures for October indicate improvement. There has been a surge in supplies of Ural and other Russian grades of oil to India, supported by reduced demand in western markets and new discounts.

According to preliminary data from global trade analysis company ‘Kepler’, India’s oil imports in October stood at about 18 lakh barrels per day, which is about 2.5 lakh BPD more than the previous month. However, the company says that the figures for the current month may be revised.

India’s clarification on Trump’s statement

These figures are before US President Donald Trump’s statement on October 15, in which he claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed to stop Russian oil imports. However, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal rejected this claim and said that he was not aware of any such conversation. He said that Russian oil is an important part of India’s energy system.

Kepler’s Chief Research Analyst (Refining and Modeling) Sumit Ritolia says that Trump’s statement appears to be a business pressure tactic rather than any policy change. He said that Russian oil has an important place in India’s energy system for economic, contractual and strategic reasons. Indian refineries have also clarified that no instructions have been received from the government to stop importing Russian oil.

Russian oil imports increased after Ukraine war

Following the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022, India had significantly increased oil imports from Russia. Due to Western sanctions and decline in European demand, Russian oil is becoming available at huge discounts, which has benefited energy importing countries like India.

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yuan For Russian Oil: The crude oil being purchased by India from Russia is now being paid in Chinese currency ‘Yuan’ instead of US dollars. This move may prove to be an uncomfortable news for US President Donald Trump, especially when he has repeatedly criticized the imposition of high tariffs on India and the common currency plan of the BRICS countries.

According to a report by news agency Reuters, Indian refiners buying oil from Russia were asked by Russian suppliers (traders) to pay for recent shipments in yuan instead of US dollars or UAE dirhams.

Trump’s anxiety will increase!

The report quoted sources as saying that Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) — the country’s largest state-owned oil company — has paid for at least two or three Russian oil shipments in yuan.

Traditionally, international oil prices have always been paid in US dollars. But due to Western sanctions on Russia and the complexities of the ruble payment system, the need for an alternative currency is now being felt. In this situation, paying in yuan has become a more convenient option.

Why did the use of yuan increase?

This is not the first time that India has paid for oil purchases in yuan. Even in the year 2023, Indian government companies had paid for some shipments in yuan. However, that practice was banned after tensions increased in India-China relations.

Now, latest developments indicate that India has partially reinstated the permission for payments in Yuan. Private oil companies were already paying in yuan, but now with the involvement of state refiners, this change is considered important for both the international trade balance and the global holding of the US dollar.

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Vladimir Putin once again proved that Russia is a true friend of India. He has said that his government will take measures to reduce the damage caused by tariff to India. Russia can buy more pharmaceutical and agricultural products from India.

Putin has criticized US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 50 percent tariff on India. He has instructed his government to take measures to reduce the trade imbalance being caused to India due to purchasing crude oil from Russia. India buys crude oil from Russia on a large scale, due to which there is a huge imbalance in trade between the two countries. Now due to buying Russian oil, America is putting pressure on India by putting huge tariffs, so Putin wants to reduce trade imbalance between the two countries.

On Thursday (October 2, 2025), Putin said this in the Black Sea Resort in Sochi, Russia, in the International Valdai discussion of the security of 140 countries including India and the International Validai discussion. He said that the loss of India from American tariffs will be repaid by import of Russian crude oil and India will also get a reputation as a sovereign nation.

Russia will buy medicines from India
Putin has indicated that Russia can buy medicines from India to compensate for this loss. He said that this trade imbalance can be reduced by purchasing India’s pharmaceutical and agricultural products. Last month, Trump had announced a 100 percent tariff on India’s patent drugs from October 1, while generic medicines were excluded from it.

Vladimir Putin said that there is no political aspect in the measures he has asked for India to take business, this is an economic calculation. He said that if India leaves Russian resources, then it will cause a lot of damage. He said that different estimates have been made, some say that there may be a loss of 9-10 billion dollars, but if he does not do so, then he will be seated and that loss is going to be the same.

Putin said why India will do this, if it leaves Russian resources, then it will also cause domestic political losses and Indians will never let their insults be insulted. He said, ‘Indian people never give anyone a chance to insult. I know Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he will never take such a decision.

Indians will not allow their insults, said Putin
Putin said on the relations between India and Russia that there was never any problem between us, it never happened that due to some reason there was a tension situation between the two countries. Vladimir Putin said that the relations between India and Russia are strong since the time of the Soviet Union, India was struggling for independence at that time.

He said that the people of India have not forgotten it even today, they know our relationship and appreciate it. We praise that India never ignored its relationship with Russia. Putin appreciated the Nationalist Government of India led by PM Modi and described PM Modi as a balanced, intelligent and nation -friendly leader.

Russian crude oil import: US President Donald Trump has imposed 25 percent penalty on India for import of crude oil from Russia. With this, the tariff on India has increased to 50 percent. The US believes that India and China are the biggest reason for the Russian attack on Ukraine. If it stops buying oil from Russia, then the attack on Ukraine will stop immediately.

Trump says that it is promoting the attack in Ukraine by purchasing oil from Russia. Trump has even said that India is funding Russia for an attack in Ukraine by purchasing oil from Russia. Due to this, the US government is constantly pressurizing India to stop buying oil from Russia and now it seems that the effect of this pressure is also visible somewhere.

Shocking revelation in the report

In the month of September, India bought less oil from Russia than in August. However, this decline is very minor. According to the tracking data of global real time data and analytics provider Capler, India’s oil imports from Russia in September stood at 1.60 million barrels per day, lower than a 5.4 percent level of August. According to Kepler’s report, in September, India’s government companies had crude oil imports from Russia on an average of 605,000 barrels (BPD), which is 32 percent lower at the average of April-August.

Did India really come under Trump’s pressure?

How many oils are to be supplied from Russia to India, it is made six-eight weeks before the contract delivery. That is, how many barrels of barrel oil are to be exported in September, it is decided in the contracts held in July and August. In July, Trump started publicly targeting India for the purchase of oil from Russia and by the first week of August, he also announced to impose penalty on India. Now only after the supply of oil from Russia in October, it will be clearly understood whether the pressure of the Trump administration has had some special effect or not?

What is the reason behind this?

Kepler said that a major reason for this can be the cost of transportation from Russia to India, in which there has been no decrease. The cost of freight from Russia to India from Russia increased by the end of September and early October. The discount on the purchase of oil has also decreased compared to earlier. Apart from this, there may also be a reason for increasing risks of US pressure from Russia and the need to diversify supply for government companies.

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Russian crude imports: At this time 50 percent tariff is placed on India with America. In addition to the base tariff of 25 percent of these, 25 percent of 25 percent has been applied as penalty due to purchasing cheap oil from Russia. In such a situation, India has asked the US that if it allows New Delhi to import oil from Iran and Venezuela, then India will stop purchasing oil from Moscow.

Russia, facing international sanctions amidst the Ukraine War, started offering cheap oil. India imports about 90 percent of its needs. In such a situation, the purchase of oil at cheap prices from Russia has helped India to reduce the import bill to a great extent.

India’s condition in front of the US

However, India can also get similar cheap oil from Iran and Venezuela. According to a Bloomberg report, during the US visit this week, Indian authorities strongly put their stand on the issue of oil imports before the Trump administration.

He said in his suggestion that Indian refiners would need to allow the permission to import oil from Iran and Venezuela from Washington to cut the procurement of oil from Russia. Because these two countries are currently imposed international restrictions.

India’s aggressive side

Significantly, this visit of Indian officials has taken place at a time when Washington has put a huge tariff of 50 percent on New Delhi. However, despite the penalty, the purchase of cheap oil from Russia is still going on by India.

At the time of tour of New York, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal indicated that India wants to increase the purchase of oil and gas from the US. He said that America will contribute to our energy security goals. Significantly, since the war between Ukraine and Russia started in 2022, India has increased a tremendous increase in the purchase of crude oil from Moscow.

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Russian crude oil: Indian port officials on Thursday (March 27, 2025) stopped an old tanker filled with Russian crude oil from taking entry due to insufficient documents. Sources familiar with the case have given this information. This does not usually happen. This indicates strictly checking of ships carrying dandruff oil.

Indian Oil Corporation had to deliver

India is the largest buyer of Russian crude oil. Oil is supplied to India from Russia to the sea. In 2024, India has imported about 35 percent of the total amount of crude oil. India is the largest importer and consumer of crude oil worldwide.

According to shipping data, there was a loading of about 100,000 metric tonnes (or about 800,000 barrels) of Russian oil company Lukoil in the Northern Russian port Marmansk in the Andaman Skyz with Tanzania flags. For delivery to the Indian Oil Corporation, the ship was moving towards the Wadinar Bandgar in Gujarat. According to information received from sources, this ship was sent back.

Earlier this ship came to India in December

According to the port admission rules in India, ships more than 20 years old are required to receive maritime qualification certification from a member of the International Association of Classification Society or a unit authorized by the maritime administration of India.

Sources said that the Andaman Skyz, built in 2004, had come to India in December earlier. At that time, it had a Dakar class certification. It is India based, but it has not been recognized by Indian shipping officials. Let us know that due to the US sanctions imposed on Russia in January, the demand for Russian crude oil from big buyers like India and China has decreased. The purpose of this ban imposed by America was to directly attack the economy of Russia.

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