India US Trade Deal: The much awaited trade deal between India and America may happen in the first six months of this year. This has been said by Ian Bremmer, head of Eurasia Group and world renowned risk analyst. He says that American tariff increase on India may not even be included in the list of major risks for India in 2026. According to Bremer, this issue will definitely be big in 2025, but its importance will reduce significantly in 2026.

In an exclusive interview given to NDTV, Ian Bremner was asked about the timeline of the India-US trade deal. On this he clearly said, ‘India-America trade deal will be done in the first half of this year.’

Talks have been going on for several months

Negotiations on India-US trade deal have been going on for the last several months, but in August 2025, relations between the two countries turned sour when America imposed 50 percent tariff on India. This tariff was imposed due to India continuing to buy oil from Russia.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi last spoke to US President Donald Trump on December 11. This conversation took place shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India. After this, after the visit of US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer to India in December, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal had said that talks regarding a trade deal with America are in the advanced stage.

Donald Trump gave a statement

Earlier today, President Donald Trump also said that his relations with Prime Minister Modi are good, but there is disagreement regarding tariffs. Trump said, ‘I have a very good relationship with Prime Minister Modi, but he is not happy with me because India has to pay higher tariffs. However, now India has reduced oil purchases from Russia to a great extent.

Constant changes in the situation regarding trade deals and the absence of any fixed deadline have increased the pressure on Indian exporters, especially before the new financial year. Many domestic export sectors of India have been badly affected by the 50 percent tariff imposed by America. These include leather, chemicals, footwear, gems and jewellery, textile and shrimp industries. These areas are expected to get relief in the coming days.

On one hand, US President Donald Trump has taken military action against Venezuela and imprisoned its President Nicolas Maduro, while on the other hand, he has created a new diplomatic stir by threatening to increase more tariffs on India. After this statement of Trump, the discussion regarding India-America relations has once again intensified. However, the figures that have emerged amid all this may surprise even the American leadership itself.

India’s oil imports from America increased rapidly

Till November in the current financial year, India has increased the import of crude oil from America by about 92 percent. With this, America’s share in India’s total oil imports has increased from 4.3 percent to 7.6 percent. This increase has happened at a time when Washington has been continuously pressurizing India to reduce oil purchases from Russia.

Big decline in oil imports from Russia

On the contrary, India’s oil import from Russia has now come down from 37.9 percent to 33.7 percent as compared to earlier. US Senator Lindsey Graham has also commented on this. He said that about a month ago, in a conversation at the residence of Indian Ambassador Taranjit Singh Sandhu (Kwatra) in Washington, he was told that India has reduced the purchase of oil from Russia.

Still suspense on trade agreement

Despite this, the India-US bilateral trade agreement is still stuck. According to an NBT report, a senior official said that all the issues have been discussed in officer-level meetings and now the solution can be found only at the level of political leadership.

Why is tension increasing?

India has clearly refused to open its agriculture and dairy sector to America. Experts believe that for this reason President Trump’s threat to increase tariffs is being seen as a pressure tactic. However, the latest oil import figures indicate that India has already shown inclination towards the US on the energy front, despite the impasse in trade talks.

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Relations between America and India appear to be strengthening once again. The White House said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold frequent talks, while the business teams of the two countries are also continuing serious and constructive talks.

White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt said in a conversation with reporters, “President Trump respects Prime Minister Modi very much and he talks to him often.” He said that serious discussions are continuously taking place between the two countries regarding trade and economic cooperation, which is an indication that the talks between the two countries are moving in the right direction.

Levitt also told that recently on the occasion of Diwali, Trump had talked to Modi in the Oval Office of the White House. During this time many senior Indian-American officials were also present. He said, “President Trump is very positive about India-US relations and wants to take this relationship forward very strongly.” He also praised US Ambassador Sergio Gore, who is playing an active role in strengthening diplomatic relations on behalf of the US in New Delhi.

After trade dispute, now there are signs of improvement in relations

During his visit to South Korea last week, Trump had said that he wants to make a new trade deal with India. This statement has come at a time when relations between the two countries had soured in the last few years. In fact, Washington had increased the tariff on Indian imports from 25% to 50% due to India continuing to purchase Russian oil.

America made this increase on July 30 and a week later an additional 25% duty was imposed. However, after new US sanctions were imposed on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, Indian oil companies have reduced the import of Russian crude oil.

Analysts believe that this development indicates new warmth in India-US relations. It is also clear from the recent statement of the White House that the trade partnership and strategic cooperation between the two countries can gain further momentum in the coming months.

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US President Donald Trump has once again taken a tough stance on India and said that if India continues to import crude oil from Russia, it will have to pay heavy import tariffs. Trump gave this statement while talking to journalists in his plane Air Force One. He said, ‘I spoke to Prime Minister Modi. He said that India will not buy Russian oil. If they do not do so, they will have to pay heavy tariffs.

The Trump administration believes that the countries buying oil from Russia are indirectly providing financial support to the Ukraine war, that is why America is continuously putting pressure on the countries buying energy from Russia. In the past months, America had requested many countries including India to reduce or stop Russian oil imports.

India has rejected Trump’s claim

Trump has already claimed that PM Modi has assured him that India will no longer buy oil from Russia. However, Trump’s claim has been rejected by the Indian Foreign Ministry. External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal had said that the aim of India’s energy policy is to protect the interests of its consumers. He said that India is a responsible energy importer. We take our decisions independently so that prices remain stable and supply remains diverse. India reiterated that its priority is to maintain economic balance and meet domestic needs and not to come under any political pressure.

Trump’s tariffs affected India

The Trump administration had increased the import duty on many Indian products earlier this year. This includes clothes, medicines and agricultural products. Indian industry organizations say that this policy has had a negative impact on exports. If a new tariff is imposed on the issue of Russian oil, India-US trade relations may sour.

Controversy over Modi-Trump conversation

Trump claimed in his statement that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised him not to buy Russian oil. Although the Indian government has clarified that there is no official record of any such conversation, when journalists raised questions on this, Trump said that if they did not agree, they would have to pay heavy tariffs.

India’s energy strategy

India is the third largest oil importer in the world. New Delhi says its goal is to maintain affordable, sustainable and diverse energy supply. India currently buys oil from Saudi Arabia, America, Russia and United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, a senior official of the Energy Ministry said that oil from Russia is proving to be the cheapest deal economically, hence India considers it a part of its energy security strategy.

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Us-India tension: America has increased India’s pressure further over the purchase of oil from Russia. The White House has now appealed to European countries to impose the same ban on India, which the US itself has imposed. The Trump administration wants Europe to completely stop the purchase of oil gas from India and put secondary tariffs.

The issue is expected to rise specially during the meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at the SCO summit to be held in Tianjin.

‘Russia is getting help from India’

The US alleges that India is providing financial assistance to Moscow by purchasing Russian crude oil and thus indirectly Ukraine War is getting “fuel”. Washington has imposed 50% tariff on India. In response, India accused Western countries of double attitude and said that both China and Europe are buying oil and gas on a large scale from Russia, but they did not have any punitive action.

Europe’s silence and Trump’s anger

According to India Today reports, many European leaders appear to be publicly supporting President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the war, but secretly Alaska Trump Putin is trying to weaken the progress in Putin Summit. American officials believe that the pressure of European countries for the “better deal” on Ukraine is lengthening the war. This is why the White House is angry with the leaders of Europe.

There will be important talks in Tianjin

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit to be held in Tianjin in the next two days. Diplomatic sources say that the American tariffs on India and the Russia Ukraine War Tianjin will have the main issues of discussion.

Democrats of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee have criticized President Donald Trump and his administration. He says that only India is being targeted to buy oil from Russia, while big buyers like China are exempted.

Tariff damage to America and relations
Democrats say that 50% of tariffs on Trump’s Indian imports have damaged Americans and are damaging Indo-US relations made up of the last two decades of bipartite attempts. He said that “instead of banning China or other countries, only targeting India is weakening the US-India relations. It is almost as the case is not related to Ukraine.”

NYT report cited
The panel, citing the report of the New York Times, said that if the Trump administration had imposed a secondary ban on every country buying oil from Russia, the matter was different. But by focusing only on India, this has become the most confused policy result, because China is still buying Russian oil at a discount after getting discounts.

New tariffs and effects
The attack of Democrats came when the additional 25% tariffs (above 25% applied) applied by Trump became effective. In this way the tariff rate has doubled. Trump has linked it to India’s Russian oil trade.

According to the Government of India, these tariffs will have an impact on export of $ 48.2 billion. Officials have warned that new duties can make the US a commercially non-practical, which can reduce employment and slow the economic growth.

Modi government’s attitude
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has clarified that India will not bow under pressure. However, the US has exempted some sectors such as pharmaceuticals and electronic goods, which has given partial relief to India.

Status of trade relations
Indo-US trade relations have been strengthened in recent years, but they are still affected by controversies on market access and domestic political pressures. India was in early countries that started trade talks with the Trump administration, but so far no agreement has been reached as America has been demanding more reach in India’s agriculture and dairy sector.

India to Boost Russian Oil Purchase: Buying oil from Russia is passing by India. Donald Trump, who is trying to shut down Ukraine War, is adopting every tactic to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin under pressure. But all his efforts so far have gone in vain. For this reason, President Trump has applied an additional 25 percent tariff penalty over India.

But according to the reports of news agency Reuters, India is now going to increase and increase the purchase of crude oil from Russia. Oil procurement in September may increase by 10 to 20 percent in September.

India will increase the purchase of oil and increase

This decision has been taken by India to buy oil at a time when the Russian refinery has suffered tremendous damage in the drone attack on Ukraine. With this, the processing capacity of his refinery has reduced. In such a situation, oil prices have been reduced by Russian exporters so that more sales can be increased.

It is worth noting that after the ban on Moscow in 2022, India has become a big buyer of Russia. Cheap oil has helped Indian refiners to keep oil prices normal. However, it has also been criticized for not getting the benefit of this cheap oil to the people.

Trump’s anger turned out on oil

This is the reason that since this week i.e. 27 August 2025, tariff rates on Indian goods like clothes, jewelery have been increased to 50 percent. This is a major step to financially ban India in recent times.

However, officials say that there is still talks on the tariff dispute with the Trump administration. At the same time, PM Modi is constantly engaged in doing further better with Russia and China.

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US President Donald Trump on Friday (August 1, 2025) reacted to the news of a possible restriction on India’s probability ban on purchasing oil from Russia. However, he also admitted that he is not sure about the truth of this information.

The news agency ANI was asked whether any special fine would be imposed on India or whether there is any conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump said that I have heard that India will no longer buy oil from Russia. I do not know whether it is right or wrong. This is a good step. Let’s see what happens. This statement comes at a time when the US is under international pressure to limit Russia’s earnings between Ukraine War.

India is the third largest country to buy oil from Russia

India is the third largest oil importer in the world and since 2022 it has been a major buyer of concessional Russian crude oil. At the same time, according to recent reports, Indian government refineries have temporarily stopped the purchase of oil from Russia due to decreasing discounts and logistic challenges. The Government of India has not given any official statement on this. America considers this business wrong from a geopolitical perspective and wants India to stop purchasing energy and weapons from Russia.

America has imposed 25 percent tariff on India

Recently, the US has announced that it will impose 25% tariffs on all exports from India. A fine will also be imposed for continuing energy trade from Russia. Trump criticized India in his Truth Social Post last week, in which he said that India buys energy and military equipment from Russia and puts a lot of tariffs on American products, due to which there is a lot of problems in business.

What did India say on Trump’s statement?

On behalf of the Government of India, Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal reacted and said that there is a stable and time-time partnership between India and Russia. Indo-US relations are based on common interests, democratic values and strong public relations. India made it clear that it wants to maintain a balanced relationship with both countries and will not compromise on its strategic interests.

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