India has taken an important strategic step regarding the supply of crude oil. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has started diversifying crude oil sourcing amid increasing international sanctions on Russia and global supply uncertainties.

In this series, IOC has purchased crude oil from Colombia for the first time.

This deal has been done under the alternative supply agreement with Colombia’s government company Ecopetrol. IOC has purchased 2 million barrels of Castilla Grade crude oil, delivery of which is expected by the end of February.

So far the IOC’s dependence has been mainly on Russia and the Middle East.

According to Kpler, India’s Russian oil imports may decline to 12 lakh barrels per day in December. This change reflects India’s energy security strategy.

Russian Crude Oil: After the new sanctions imposed by the US on major exporters of Russian crude oil are fully implemented, energy market experts believe that the import of Russian oil to India will decline rapidly in the near future, although it will not stop completely.

US sanctions have come into effect on Rosneft, Lukoil and their majority-owned companies from November 21. After these restrictions, it has become almost impossible to buy or sell crude oil from these companies.

India imported an average of 17 lakh barrels of Russian oil per day this year. It is expected to increase to 18–19 lakh barrels per day in November, because refineries are buying more and more cheap oil before the ban comes into force. But there is a possibility of a sharp decline in its supply in December and January. According to experts, it can come down to about 4 lakh barrels per day.

How did India’s dependence on Russian oil increase?

India, traditionally dependent on West Asian crude, started buying large quantities of oil from Russia after the Ukraine war started in February 2022. Due to Western sanctions and reduced demand from Europe, Russia started selling crude oil at a huge discount. As a result, India’s Russian oil imports increased from 1% to almost 40% of total imports. Even in November, Russia remained India’s largest oil supplier, accounting for about one-third of total imports.

Decline certain in December-January

Kpler research analyst Sumit Ritolia said that we expect a clear decline in Russian crude oil flows to India in the near future, especially in December and January. “Deliveries have slowed since October 2021, but given Russia’s capacity as intermediaries and alternative financial management, it is too early to draw final conclusions.”

Following US sanctions, Reliance Industries, HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Mangalore Refinery have currently stopped purchasing Russian oil. The only exception is Nayara Energy, which is backed by Rosneft and is highly dependent on Russian oil in the absence of alternative sources following European sanctions.

Ritolia said that except Nayara’s Vadiner plant, no Indian refiner is willing to take the risks associated with OFAC-designated entities. “It will take time for buyers to rearrange their contracts, supply routes, ownership structures and payment channels.”

impact on indian market

Cheap Russian oil has been a major source of profit for Indian refiners in the last two years. Due to this, the retail prices of petrol and diesel have remained stable despite the instability in the international market. India meets 88% of its oil requirements through imports.

Now that US sanctions have come into full force, India’s Russian oil imports have entered an unstable and uncertain phase. Experts believe that there will be no complete stoppage of oil from Russia, but there will be a clear and sharp decline in its supply in the near future.

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India To Cut Russian Crude Oil Imports: India is going to cut direct purchases of crude oil from Russia from the end of November. This step is being taken in view of the new US sanctions imposed on two major Russian oil companies – Rosneft and Lukaoil – from November 21. According to news agency PTI, analysts say that these restrictions may force Indian refinery companies to change their oil purchasing patterns.

Major Indian companies will reduce purchases of Russian oil

Three major companies that account for more than half of India’s total Russian oil imports – Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), Mangaluru Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) and HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited (HMEL) – are set to reduce direct purchases of Russian oil in compliance with the new US sanctions. Reliance has a long-term supply agreement with Rosneft, while MRPL and HMEL have decided to postpone future Russian oil shipments.

America has announced that strict economic sanctions will be imposed on Rosneft and Lukaoil from November 21. All American assets and financial transactions of these companies will be banned. Apart from this, if institutions of other countries also do large transactions with them, then “secondary sanctions” can also be imposed on them.

In the first half of the year 2025, India had imported about 18 lakh barrels per day of crude oil from Russia, in which RIL, MRPL and HMEL had more than half the share. However, the Gujarat-based Vadinar refinery (Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft has a partial stake) will continue its existing Russian oil procurement pattern, as it is already under EU sanctions and is primarily dependent on Russian crude.

Russian oil supply may fall in December

Sumit Ritolia, principal analyst at shipping data firm Kpler, says Russian crude oil shipments will see a decline after November 21 as most Indian refineries will reduce or stop direct purchases from Rosneft and Lukaoil in compliance with US sanctions. Kepler forecasts a sharp decline in Russian oil supplies in December 2025, although the situation could gradually normalize through new trade routes and alternative channels as early as 2026.

To reduce dependence on Russian oil, Indian refiners are now increasing oil purchases from West Asia, Latin America, West Africa, Canada and America. India’s US oil imports stood at 5.68 lakh barrels per day in October — the highest since March 2021.

Ritolia further said that however, the cost of sourcing oil from other countries is higher, which may reduce the price advantage. “Despite this, India’s crude oil sources are likely to become more diverse and balanced in the coming months.” Overall, the US sanctions have triggered the process of reshaping India’s energy strategy, where striking a balance between security, cost and supply stability has become a new priority.

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Russian Crude Oil: The intentions of US President Donald Trump, who is trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war, are now showing results. After American sanctions, India has now gradually started reducing the purchase of cheap crude oil from Russia. After buying oil at concessional rates for almost three years, Indian oil companies may now have to pay higher prices for oil.

great dependence on Russia

HMEL, a joint venture between Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) and Mittal Group, has announced that it will no longer buy crude oil from Russia. HMEL has become the first Indian company to formally announce stop buying oil from Moscow after US sanctions.

India imports about 86 percent of its oil needs. By mid-2022, Russia had become India’s largest oil supplier and was supplying about one-third of the oil to India at cheap prices. India was importing about 1.75 million barrels of oil daily from Russia, which mainly included companies like Rosneft and Lukoil.

What will be the effect?

Recently America has imposed new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. This has had a direct impact on shipping, insurance and trading networks. Banks have now become cautious about these transactions, due to which transaction risk and low profits have become a challenge for Indian companies. Market experts say that now volatility in crude oil prices may increase. According to Rahul Khatri, VP (Commodities), Mehta Equities, due to US sanctions, a situation of uncertainty has arisen in global oil supply.

At the same time, Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, warned that the increase in oil prices could have a direct impact on India’s inflation. He said that “India will have to pay higher prices for oil imports, which may increase economic pressure.” Meanwhile, Reliance Industries and Indian Oil Corporation have stopped new purchases from Russia, while Bharat Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery have started increasing imports from the US and Gulf countries.

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US President Donald Trump has reiterated his claim that India has agreed to stop buying oil from Russia and will do so almost by the end of the year. Congress MP Shashi Tharoor has given advice to America regarding this. He said that US President Trump should not tell the world what India will do because New Delhi does not speak on behalf of Washington DC.

Trump should not tell what India will do: Tharoor

In an interview to news agency ANI, the Congress MP said, “It is not right for Trump to announce India’s decisions. I think India will announce its own decisions. We do not tell the world what Trump will do. I think Trump should not tell the world what India will do.”

Trump’s claim regarding Russian oil

For the last few days, Trump has been claiming that India has assured him that it will reduce oil imports from Russia. He had said on Wednesday (October 22, 2025), “India has told me that they are going to stop buying Russian oil. It is a process, you cannot just stop suddenly… By the end of the year, they will almost stop it, that is, reduce it by about 40 per cent. India is very great. Yesterday I spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He is a wonderful person.”

US ban on Russian oil companies

President Trump said that relations between China and Russia are a little different. He said that relations between Beijing and Moscow were never good before, but this situation has changed due to the policies of previous US administrations. A day after this statement, America on Thursday (23 October 2025) imposed sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. These are the two largest oil companies of Russia and a ban on them could affect Moscow’s economy.

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America has imposed sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. According to sources, India is now preparing to drastically reduce Russian oil imports. Regarding this, Congress targeted the Central Government and described Narendra Modi as a weak Prime Minister. American sanctions are likely to affect Reliance Industries’ crude oil imports from Russia.

In December 2024, Reliance had signed an agreement with Russian company Rosneft to import 5 lakh barrels of Russian oil per day for 25 years. According to a Reuters report, a Reliance spokesperson said, “Russian oil imports are being re-evaluated. Reliance will adjust the purchase of Russian oil as per government guidelines.

PM Modi busy in obeying Trump’s order

Congress taunted about this and said that Narendra has once again surrendered before Trump’s threat. Congress said, “Trump ordered to stop buying oil from Russia, Modi immediately started following the order. Now the news is that Reliance will reduce buying oil from Russia. Reliance used to buy maximum crude oil from Russia. Trump has already told that by the end of this year, India will stop buying oil from Russia.”

Narendra Modi is weak Prime Minister: Congress

Congress said, “One thing is clear that Narendra Modi is a weak Prime Minister. This is the reason why India’s decisions are now being taken by Trump. Russia has been an old ally of India and under the pressure of Trump, Modi is spoiling relations with Russia. Narendra Modi has caused a lot of harm to the country with his ‘pappy-hugging’ foreign policy.

India will soon reduce buying Russian oil: Trump

US President Donald Trump once again reiterated that India has agreed to stop buying oil from Russia and will do so almost by the end of the year. Along with this, Trump said that this is a process and it will take some time. The US President also said that he will try to persuade China to do the same. China and India are the two largest buyers of Russian crude oil.

According to the report, Reliance has purchased a large consignment of crude oil from the Middle East and Brazil, which can be used to compensate for the Russian supply. Before America’s move, Reliance was considering stopping Russian oil imports for one of its two refineries.

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Russia has reacted strongly after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the measures would be “counterproductive” and would harm the global economy more than Russia.

Russia’s warning – ‘Sanctions will be ineffective’
Zakharova said that these punitive measures of America will not be able to force Russia to compromise on its national interests. He said that Russia is ready for talks, but this conversation should be through diplomatic channels instead of media rhetoric. He said, ‘This step is completely counterproductive and will make the possibility of any meaningful negotiations towards a resolution of the Ukraine conflict even more difficult.’ Zakharova also said that Russia has developed a strong deterrence against Western sanctions and the country will continue to develop its economic and energy potential with confidence.

China also gives advice to America
China also expressed strong objection to these new restrictions of America on Thursday. Beijing said these were ‘unilateral steps that have no international legal basis.’ China asked America to adopt the path of dialogue instead of the policy of pressure or coercion. China also criticized the EU’s recent sanctions, which have been imposed on some Chinese companies based on allegations of helping Russia. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo said, ‘China is neither the creator of the Ukraine crisis, nor its supporter. We oppose all measures that harm the legitimate interests of Chinese companies.

Analysts believe that this joint response of Russia and China can create a strong front against America’s increasing sanctions. Both countries are already working towards reducing dependence on the dollar and developing alternative trading systems. Experts say that if Russia and China together strengthen energy and trade cooperation, it may impact the economic policies of Western countries and may also see a change in the global balance of power.

America has imposed sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. These are the two largest oil companies of Russia and the ban is likely to affect Moscow’s economy. The Trump administration has accused these companies of funding Russia for the ongoing war in Ukraine. Amidst all this, the biggest question remains that what impact will the US sanctions on two leading Russian oil companies have on India?

Russian economy will be affected

The new sanctions are likely to hit the Russian economy, as taxes from the oil and gas industries account for about a quarter of Moscow’s budget. China-India are the largest buyers of Russian oil and energy. Last year, China bought a record more than 100 million tons of Russian crude, accounting for about 20 percent of Beijing’s total energy imports. India has become the largest buyer of Russian crude oil after Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022. This year, India has imported 17 lakh barrels of oil per day from Russia in 9 months.

Government refineries busy reviewing documents

According to Reuters report, Indian government refineries are reviewing their Russian oil trade documents. This is being done to ensure that India will not get oil supplies from these two Russian companies after the US sanctions. Government refineries including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals are reviewing the bill of lading documents for Russian crude.

What will be the impact of US sanctions on India?

The companies have not yet issued any statement on this matter. Anyway, Indian government refineries do not buy Russian oil directly from Rosneft and Lukoil. India purchases Russian crude oil through middlemen. According to the report of news agency PTI, US sanctions are likely to affect Reliance Industries’ crude oil imports from Russia, while government refineries can continue purchasing through middlemen for now.

Reliance Industries likely to be affected

The government is reportedly assessing the risks of these sanctions, but is unlikely to immediately stop the flow of Russian crude as they buy all the oil they need from traders, the majority of whom are European traders (who are outside the scope of the sanctions). Reliance Industries Limited may have to rebalance its imports as it buys crude oil directly from Russia’s Rosneft.

In December 2024, Reliance had signed a term agreement with Russian company Rosneft (which is now banned) to import 5 lakh barrels of Russian oil per day for 25 years. It also buys oil from middlemen. The two companies on which America has imposed sanctions export 31 lakh barrels of oil daily. Rosneft alone exports six percent of global oil production and almost half of Russia’s total oil production.

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Crude Oil Price Jumps: Crude oil prices have seen a rise following new US sanctions against Moscow’s major oil companies and reports of a review by Indian oil companies on purchasing cheap crude oil from Russia. According to Reuters report, an increase of about 3 percent was recorded in the price of crude oil on Thursday.

According to reports, America, which is trying to stop the Ukraine war, has imposed sanctions on two big Russian oil producing companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. After this, Indian refiners are reconsidering their plans to buy cheap oil from Moscow.

Rise in crude oil prices

Brent Crude Futures: $64.71 per barrel, an increase of $2.12 or 3.4%. While US West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $60.59 per barrel, an increase of $2.09 or 3.6%. It is noteworthy that from 2022, India is buying large quantities of crude oil from Russia. During the first nine months of this year, about 1.7 million barrels (17 lakh barrels) of oil were imported daily.

Reports say that Reliance Industries, the biggest buyer of cheap oil from Russia, has considered cutting oil purchases or stopping imports. However, most of the Indian government oil companies buy Russian oil through intermediaries, which will reduce the impact of the direct ban.

America’s new warning

America has warned that if Moscow does not agree to a ceasefire, new steps will be taken against Russia. Last week, Britain also imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, while the European Union approved the 19th sanctions package. Under this, there will be a complete ban on Russian LNG imports. However, market experts believe that the effect of this rise in crude oil will not last long.

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Trump Claims on Russian Oil: US President Donald Trump is once again in the headlines for his controversial statements. Even before this, he has created tension in India-US relations with his statements and claims – such as his attempt to give himself credit for stopping the Pahalgam attack. Now Trump has made another big claim about India amid efforts to stop the Ukraine war.

What is Trump’s new claim?

Trump has said that India has agreed to stop buying oil from Russia and will ‘almost stop’ this import by the end of the year. He says this is a ‘process’ which will take some time. He also said that now he will try to persuade China to do the same. Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said that India has told him that they are going to stop buying Russian oil. This is a process, you cannot stop suddenly… By the end of the year they will almost stop it, that is, reduce it by about 40 percent.

America believes that New Delhi’s purchase of crude oil from Moscow is tantamount to indirectly providing financial assistance for war to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Relations between New Delhi and Washington have been strained in recent times due to high tariffs and Trump’s statements. The Trump administration has imposed 50 percent high tariff on Indian goods. Among these, the basic tariff is 25 percent, while due to the import of oil from Russia, an additional tariff of 25 percent has been imposed as a penalty. However, India has termed Trump’s move as unfair, unjust and impractical.

Is there any merit in Trump’s claim?

Trump also said that he will soon meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and discuss ways to end the Russia-Ukraine war. He said he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would talk primarily about how to end the war between Russia and Ukraine — whether through oil, energy or any other means.

Trump alleged that due to the policies of former Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama, China and Russia have come closer to each other. Trump will meet Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in South Korea later this month.

Defending his trade policy, he said that America is a strong country today because of tariffs. Earlier these were used against us, due to which America became weak and the debt reached 37 trillion dollars. Now tariffs have made us prosperous and also helped prevent conflicts. He claimed to have stopped eight wars, “five or six of which were stopped just because of tariffs.” Trump also reiterated that he had played a role in stopping the recent military tensions between India and Pakistan.

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