If there is a repeat of 2021 elections in West Bengal, it will be a huge strategic blow for BJP. In 2021, many exit polls had shown BJP close to power. ‘Chanakya’ had given 97 to 119 seats to BJP, while ‘Jan Ki Baat’ had given 162 to 185 seats to BJP. But when the real results came on May 2, 2021, TMC won a thumping majority with 215 seats, while BJP was reduced to just 77 seats. If the same situation happens in 2026, how big will be BJP’s defeat and what will be the impact on 2027 elections? You will know in the explainer…

First of all, let us know how BJP breathed life into Bengal…

Amit Shah held marathon meetings at night in Bengal

Amit Shah prepared a completely new and highly secret strategy for the 2026 Bengal elections, which was named ‘Silent Mission’ or ‘3 AM Blueprint’. This strategy was completely different from the strategy of 2021, when the party had fought the elections only with the help of big rallies and polarization. This time, along with holding rallies and road shows during the day, Shah also worked to completely revamp the organizational structure of the party in the dark of night. Held marathon meetings from 2 to 3 am late night and analyzed data of all 44,376 polling stations with his team. Booths were divided into three categories – strong, focused (medium) and weak. The focused booths were those where the margin of victory and defeat in 2021 was very less and the party put all its strength there.

BJP also implemented the ‘Panna Pramukh’ system, where a worker was responsible for bringing 30-60 voters to the polling booth. Its micro-management was handed over to veteran leaders like Sunil Bansal and Bhupendra Yadav.

SIR controversy changed the direction of elections

SIR i.e. Special Intensive Revision of Electoral Rolls became the biggest and most controversial issue of the 2026 Bengal elections. Under this process, names of about 91 lakh voters were removed from the voter list of Bengal, which was 11.85% of the total voters of the state. This number decreased from 7.66 crore to 6.77 crore.

The special thing was that most of the names were removed from Muslim dominated and Matua-Rajbanshi community areas. 4.55 lakh names were removed in Murshidabad, 3.25 lakh in North 24 Parganas and 2.39 lakh in Malda. In Nadia, names of only 77.86% voters who came under scrutiny were struck off. In at least 44 assembly seats, the number of names removed was more than the victory margin of 2021. TMC termed it a ‘constitutional crime’. Mamata Banerjee alleged at a rally in Chakdaha that ‘names were selectively removed like lice’ in minority dominated districts.

Mamta Banerjee’s strongest female vote bank breached

Mamata Banerjee’s biggest strength has been her women vote bank, which was the main basis for keeping her in power for 15 consecutive years. This time BJP tried its best to breach this fort. The party released its manifesto in Kolkata on 9 April 2026, in which Amit Shah promised to give Rs 3,000 per month to every woman. This was double of Mamata’s Lakshmir Bhandar Yojana (Rs 1,500).

BJP did not limit the elections only to economic promises…

• After the RG Kar Medical College rape case and Sandeshkhali incidents, BJP made ‘women’s safety’ its biggest weapon.
• In the resolution letter, Amit Shah promised to create a women’s police unit named ‘Durga Suraksha Dasta’, women’s police station in every block and two women’s battalions in the name of ‘Matangini Hazra’ and ‘Rani Rasmani’.
• Also announced the creation of Working Women’s Hostel in every district, 75 lakh ‘Lakhpati Didi’ and 33% reservation in government jobs.

BJP changed the image of Bengal regarding ‘Shakt tradition’ and ‘Mach-Bhat’

In the 2026 elections, BJP made a very deliberate effort to change its image from a ‘North Indian vegetarian Brahminist party’ to a ‘party connected to the soil of Bengal’. This strategy started when Mamata Banerjee said in a meeting in Purulia on 29 March 2026 that ‘if BJP comes to power, they will not allow people to eat fish, meat and eggs.’

In response to this, Union Minister Anurag Thakur and MP Manoj Tiwari publicly ate fish and rice after the press conference, the video of which went viral on social media. Some BJP candidates even took out processions with fish. The party tried to send the message that their Hindutva was compatible with the ‘Shakta tradition’ (worship of the goddess Shakti) of Bengal, where fish is considered not just food but ‘Mahaprasad’.

BJP also prepared the narrative of ‘Kaaba vs Maa Kali’. TMC MP Sayani Ghosh sang the song ‘Mere dil mein hai Kaaba aur meri aankhon mein Madina’ in a rally during the election campaign, the video of which went viral. On this, Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath launched a sharp attack and said, ‘TMC may have Kaaba-Medina in its heart, but only Maa Kali and Maa Durga reside in the heart of Bengal.’

Question 1: Despite this, if BJP loses, how big will this defeat be?

answer: This defeat will be much more than a normal election defeat. Home Minister Amit Shah conducted a ‘silent mission’ by camping in Bengal for 15 days, deployed ‘Panna Pramukhs’ at every booth, took the controversial step of removing names of about 91 lakh voters under SIR, promised Rs 3,000 per month to woo women, created narratives like ‘Shakta Hindutva’ and ‘Kali vs Kaaba’.

If despite such huge capital, 21 rallies of Prime Minister Modi and late night marathon meetings of Amit Shah, the party is not able to cross the figure of 77 seats in 2021, then it will be proved that BJP cannot bloom in Mamata Banerjee’s state. This will underline the political limits of the party in the state.

Question 2: Which big leaders will toe the line in case of defeat?

answer: If BJP has to face defeat even after trying hard, then many big leaders will come in its grip…

1. State President Samik Bhattacharya: The first and direct accountability will be of the State President. Samik Bhattacharya was given this responsibility in place of Sukant Majumdar in July 2025. He took command of the entire election and claimed that the party would win with a ‘comfortable majority’.

2. Leader of Opposition Subhendu Adhikari: There will also be a lot of pressure on Shubhendu Adhikari, who is leading in the race for the post of Chief Minister and is presenting himself as the biggest rival of Mamata Banerjee. He contested elections from both Nandigram and Bhawanipur. This time, if he is unable to improve the performance of the party even in the areas under his control, his candidature for the post of Chief Minister will be dealt a major blow.

3. Sunil Bansal and Bhupendra Yadav: One is – BJP’s National General Secretary Sunil Bansal, who is considered close to Amit Shah and who was made in-charge of Bengal. The second is Union Minister Bhupendra Yadav, who handled the micro-management of ‘Shakti Kendra’ and ‘Panna Pramukh’ systems. The roles of both will also be thoroughly reviewed. They were specially sent to Bengal so that there is no lapse at the booth level like in 2021 and if there is still a defeat then their strategic failure will come to light.

Question 3: What impact will Bengal’s defeat have on the 2027 assembly elections?

answer: The impact of the second consecutive major defeat in Bengal will go far beyond the borders of the state and will affect the assembly elections of many states in 2027 and the national politics of BJP.

• Shock to the image of ‘invincibility’: The biggest loss will be to the BJP’s narrative in which it presents itself as a successful machine that wins every election. After 2021, defeat in Bengal for the second consecutive time in 2026 will prove that there is a limit to the party’s expansionist strategy. In 2027, opposition parties contesting elections in big states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat and Maharashtra will stand strong.
• Rethinking cultural strategy: In Bengal, BJP moved away from the ‘Satvik Hindutva’ of North India and adopted a local model of ‘Shakta Hindutva’. If this cultural format also fails, the party will have to rethink its cultural strategy in states like Odisha, Telangana and Karnataka.
• Questions will be raised on Amit Shah’s election strategy: If Shah’s ‘3 AM Blueprint’, which was earlier successful in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, fails in Bengal, it will give rise to a major strategic debate within the party. Can a similar electoral model be implemented in every state? Do regional leaders and local issues need to be given more importance? This question will directly affect the way preparations are made for the 2027 elections.
• Role of RSS: In case of defeat, the role of RSS and its affiliated organizations will also be reviewed, which had worked to create contacts and atmosphere at the grassroots level. Differences may emerge between the party and the Sangh regarding election strategies.
• Organizational Disadvantages: The most tangible loss will be to the morale of the workers. Defeat after so much hard work will depress the workers and make it even more difficult for the party to re-establish the booth level structure in the 2027 elections.