India’s Trade Outlook: India remains at the top among the fastest growing countries not only in South Asia but also in the world. When US President Donald Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on India and an additional 25 percent tariff on buying oil from Russia, i.e. a total of 50 percent, many experts feared a deep negative impact on India’s economy. But the facts that have come to the contrary may surprise even President Trump himself.

Tariff had no effect

US tariffs have had almost no impact on Indian GDP. On the contrary, India’s exports have registered further growth. According to SBI’s research report, despite fluctuations in the global market, India’s exports have grown strongly.

According to news agency ANI, India’s merchandise exports increased to $220 billion during April to September in the financial year 2025-26. In the same period last year, this figure was 214 billion dollars, which means there has been an increase of about 2.9 percent.

Increase in exports to America

Despite the high tariffs imposed by America, exports from India to America have increased by about 13 percent, i.e. 45 billion dollars. However, if seen on an annual basis, the shipments sent to America in September 2025 have declined by about 12 percent as compared to the previous year.

The report said that America is still India’s main export market, but after July 2025, a big decline was recorded in the total exports to America. This reduction reached approximately 15 percent in September 2025. Apart from this, there has also been a significant decline in marine products and precious stones sent to America.

turning to new markets

On the other hand, India has changed the direction of its exports towards countries like UAE, China, Vietnam, Japan, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nigeria. It is noteworthy that American high tariffs have had the biggest impact on Indian products like textiles, jewelery and lobster. To deal with this situation, the government has approved an assistance amount of Rs 45,000 crore to help exporters, which also includes a credit guarantee of Rs 20,000 crore.

Also read: Amidst tariff bitterness from US, India took such a step, neighboring China will be happy to know

GST Collection: Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection is likely to cross Rs 2 lakh crore in the month of November. The surprising thing is that despite the reduced GST rate and projections regarding revenue loss, there is an expectation of a jump in GST collection this month. In November last year, GST collection had reached Rs 1.82 lakh crore.

It was being estimated that after the change in indirect tax in the beginning of September, GST collection may be slightly less in the first few months. However, SBI Research, a think tank of State Bank of India, has said that the gross domestic GST collection with IGST and cess on imports can cross the Rs 2 lakh crore mark in November. After the 56th meeting of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council, new rates came into effect from September 22, under which many things used in common life became cheaper.

GST collection crosses Rs 2 lakh crore

A report by SBI Research said, “Our analysis shows that the gross domestic GST collection for November 2025 could reach about Rs 1.49 lakh crore, which is 68 percent more than last year. Also, with Rs 51,000 crore of IGST and import cess, the GST collection for November may cross Rs 2 lakh crore, which is due to the peak demand in the festive season due to lower GST rate and increased compliance. Many states are getting the benefit of this. “In credit cards, merchant categories like auto, grocery stores, electronics, furnishing and travel showed huge growth in the e-commerce channel, where 38 per cent of spend was on utilities and services, followed by supermarkets and grocery at 17 per cent and travel agents at 9 per cent.”

How much GST collection was done from which state?

• Jammu and Kashmir – 551 (25 October) – 584 (25 November)
• Himachal Pradesh – 722 (25 October) – 697 (25 November)
• Punjab – 2,311 (25 October) – 2637 (25 November)
• Uttarakhand – 1,604 (25 October) – 1751 (25 November)
• Haryana – 10,057 (25 October) – 11479 (25 November)
• Delhi- 8,538 (25 October) 9120 (25 November)
• Rajasthan – 4,330 (25 October) – 4883 (25 November)
• Uttar Pradesh – 9,806 (25 October) – 10412 (25 November)
• Bihar – 1,652 (25 October) – 1685 (25 November)
• Assam – 1,440 (25 October) – 1316 (25 November)
• West Bengal – 5,556 (25 October) – 4705 (25 November)
• Jharkhand – 2,518 (25 October) – 2654 (25 November)
• Odisha – 4,824 (25 October) – 4894 (25 November)
• Chhattisgarh – 2,598 (October 25) – 2471 (November 25)
• Madhya Pradesh – 3,449 (25 October) – 3672 (25 November)
• Gujarat – 12,113 (25 October) – 12348 (25 November)
• Maharashtra – 32,025 (25 October) – 37248 (25 November)
• Karnataka – 14,395 (25 October) – 13367 (25 November)
• Kerala- 2833 (25 October)- 2641 (25 November)
• Tamil Nadu- 11588 (October 25)- 10624 (November 25)
• Telangana – 5726 (25 October) – 7583 (25 November)
• Andhra Pradesh – 3490 (25 October) – 3082 (25 November)

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