17 days after the war between America, Israel and Iran, today the world is standing at the brink of an energy crisis that has never happened before. The main route for oil and LPG supply was the Strait of Hormuz; tanker traffic on it has almost reduced to zero. About 400 ships are anchored outside the Gulf of Oman and do not have the courage to go further.

Iran has kept this as its biggest weapon, but its strategy with this weapon is even more advanced. Do you understand how Iran has planned to close, one by one, every route through which oil reaches the world?

The first route closed – Hormuz, it is just a 33 kilometer wide route between Iran and Oman and 20 million barrels of oil passes through it every day, which is 20 percent of the world’s total oil consumption. The oil of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar goes through this route.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officially announced on March 2 that Hormuz is closed to the US and its allies. Any ship that tries to pass will be attacked and this happened – according to UKMTO, 17 civilian ships have been attacked since 28 February.

After the closure of Hormuz, everyone thought that there are bypass routes and they will use them, but Iran has planned that too. Second route – Fujairah… Sensing the dangers of such a war, the UAE spent 4.2 billion dollars in 2012 and built a pipeline, ADCOP (from Habshan to Fujairah), 380 kilometers long.

It was the insurance policy of UAE that if Hormuz is closed, oil will come out from Fujairah which is directly connected to the Indian Ocean. Its capacity is 1.5 million barrels per day and Iran has also closed that exit. Iranian drones attacked Fujairah’s oil terminal and caused a massive fire, smoke billowing, oil loading halted and shipping company Maersk shutting down all operations in Fujairah. In this way the second option is also closed.

Third route- After Hormuz and Fujairah, Yanbu and Bab-al-Mandab are left. Saudi Arabia had another route for the East-West Pipeline. This is a 1,200 kilometer long pipeline from Abqaiq to Yanbu. Its design capacity is 7 million barrels per day. As soon as Hormuz was closed, Saudi Arabia activated this route. Started sending oil from Yanbu to the Red Sea but to get out of the Red Sea one has to pass through Bab-al-Mandab and this is where the Houthis are sitting.

Announcement of ‘Hour Zero’ at Bab-al-Mandab
Just 30 kilometers wide, the Bab al-Mandab between Yemen and Djibouti connects Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, the only entrance to the Suez Canal. This is the route for 10 to 12 percent of the world’s international maritime trade. Due to Houthi attacks, the oil flow from here had fallen from 8.7 million barrels per day in 2023 to 4.2 million barrels per day in 2025. This road was already half closed.

On March 14, 2026, Houthi officials announced military alignment with Iran and declared ‘Hour Zero’. The Houthis clearly said that closing Bab-al-Mandab is their priority. Experts say that as soon as Saudi Arabia started deliveries from the Red Sea, the Houthis were ready to close that route too. This is part of Iran’s three-step strategy.

If both the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-al-Mandab are completely closed simultaneously, 30 percent of the world’s maritime oil trade could come to a halt in one fell swoop. Goldman Sachs has warned that due to Houthi capture of Bab-el-Mandab, the price of oil could go up to $ 120 per barrel, whereas currently oil has crossed $ 110 and WTI, which was $ 57 at the beginning of 2025, has reached $ 119.

Ships that cannot pass will have to round the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. To go from here, additional fuel of 12 to 15 days is required. Shipping companies have left the field. Companies such as CMA CGM, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have stopped all trans-Suez services from Bab-el-Mandab. Insurance companies have either stopped war risk cover or have made it so expensive that no commercial operator is daring to go on these routes.

What is its impact on India?
India imports 88-89 percent of its crude oil needs. This is the highest level ever. 84 percent of the oil passing through Hormuz goes towards the Asian market of China, India, Japan, South Korea. If both Hormuz and Bab-al-Mandab remain closed for a long time, then petrol, diesel, LPG, air fares all will directly affect your pocket.

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Two ships Shivalik and Nanda Devi are reaching India with 92,712 metric tons of gas through the Strait of Hormuz. The anger of Pakistanis is sky high after hearing this news. Pakistani expert Qamar Cheema has said that the Pakistani government should also talk to the Iranian government as to why Pakistani ships are not coming. Qamar Cheema also says that the Pakistani people are very angry with this.

Qamar Cheema said that the Iranian Ambassador to India has said that Indian ships can go through Hormuz. Now that Iran has stopped all the traffic, is the facility provided to India also available to Pakistan or not? He also said that secondly, if Pakistan is taking LNG and other things from Qatar and if Qatar has stopped their production, then these things will not be able to reach Pakistan.

Iran will never anger India, said Pakistani expert
Qamar Cheema said that there may be shortage of cooking gas within India also. Iran can also shut down India’s kitchens because that is the way, but it will not do so. He said that Iran will not get involved in these things. Iran wants to take advantage of this time to strengthen its ties because now it is emerging as a regional player, so it wants to use it. He said that if these ships are coming to India from there, then the question is being raised in Pakistan also that 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran has given relief to India.

Qamar Cheema said, ‘India has called the President of Iran and what is our government doing? Pakistan condemned the attacks on Iran. Also expressed regret over the death of Ayatollah Khamenei and what did we get? I do not have clarity on whether our ships are being allowed to come from Hormuz or not because our government is not saying anything.

Pakistanis got angry when India got exemption
Pak expert Qamar Cheema said that now Pakistanis are feeling very bad that we spoke against Israel, we supported Iran in the war and Iran is allowing India to take oil and gas. He said, ‘Iran will never anger India, it wants to manage India because India is a big country, Iran has to do business with it. Pakistanis feel bad, but there is nothing to feel bad about. Here you have to balance relationships.

Pakistan’s relations with Iran are not good, said Pak expert
Qamar Cheema said, ‘I feel that the efforts that Indians were making were to be traditionally close to Iran and use its Chabahar port to distance Pakistan and Afghanistan and give Afghanistan an alternative route. Iran was also happy with this. Pakistan’s relations with Iran have not been good, it thinks that India suits them in terms of business. He said that Iran just takes political and diplomatic support from Pakistan. Iranians also know that Pakistan has a defense deal with Saudi Arabia, so that is also one thing.

Pakistan government should talk to Iran, Pak expert appealed
Qamar Cheema said that the Pakistan government should also talk to the Iranian government as to why our ships are not coming from there. The government should talk about this because this war is long. He said that the Government of Pakistan is giving subsidy of 2300 billion dollars on LPG cylinders and things like this, but if all this continues then the government will be able to give subsidy for one, two or three weeks, then after that it will have to come forward. He said that the government cannot give so much subsidy, the government does not have so much money, then Pakistan has to take more loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF tells us that you people cannot do this. This is a big issue with Pakistan.

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Due to the war between America, Israel and Iran, there is an outcry in the whole world regarding oil and gas. Especially in countries like India and Pakistan. Arab countries send oil and gas to the international market through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran has closed this route. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that only tankers and ships of the ‘enemy and its allies’ are not allowed to pass through here.

Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many gas and oil ships are stranded, but Iran has maintained friendship with India and two Indian ships Shivalik and Nanda Devi are about to reach India with 92,712 metric tons of LPG. Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar has told how Indian ships have been allowed to come through Hormuz.

Speaking with the Financial Times, Jaishankar said Iran’s permission to two Indian-flagged ships to pass through Hormuz shows that diplomatic efforts between the two countries have yielded positive results. Jaishankar said that certainly from India’s point of view it is better to act logically rather than doing nothing. Coordinate among yourselves and find a solution. Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar spoke to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on phone four times.

Jaishankar said that India has not got permission for its ships to go through Hormuz in exchange for any deal with Iran. Iran has not made any demand from India in return. He said that India and Iran have a special relationship.

Jaishankar said that this is just the beginning, there are other Indian ships there. This is a welcome step and continuous talks will continue with Iran on this. The External Affairs Minister also clarified that this is not a blanket arrangement with Iran for Indian flagged ships, the movement of each ship is an individual event. When Jaishankar was asked whether European countries can also adopt a system like India, he said that every country’s relationship with Iran is important in itself. It is difficult to compare it directly.

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