India GDP Growth: S&P Global Ratings has projected India’s economy to grow at 6.5 percent in the current financial year 2025-26 and 6.7 percent in the next financial year 2026-27. The rating agency said that tax cuts and relaxation in monetary policy will boost consumption-led growth.

India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow at the fastest rate in five quarters at 7.8 percent in the April to June period of the current financial year.

Information given in the report

Official data of GDP growth estimates for the second quarter (July-September) is scheduled to be released on November 28. “We estimate India’s GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY 2025-26 (ending March 2026) and 6.7 per cent in FY 2026-27, with risks balanced on both sides,” S&P said in its ‘Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Report’. Despite the impact of US tariffs, domestic growth remains strong, driven by strong consumption.

RBI estimate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has estimated India’s GDP growth rate to be 6.8 percent in the current financial year. Which is better than the growth rate of 6.5 percent in the last financial year 2024-25. “Lower Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates will boost middle-class consumption and complement the income tax cuts and interest rate cuts introduced this year,” S&P said. “With these changes, consumption may become a bigger driver of growth than investment in the current financial year and the next financial year.”

The government has increased the income tax exemption from Rs 7 lakh to Rs 12 lakh in the budget for the financial year 2025-26, due to which the middle class has got a tax relief of Rs 1 lakh crore. Apart from this, RBI had reduced the key policy rates by 0.5 percent in June, bringing them to a three-year low of 5.5 percent.

At the same time, GST rates were reduced on about 375 items from September 22. Due to which the items of daily consumption have become cheaper. S&P said the increase in effective US tariffs on India is impacting the expansion of export-oriented manufacturing in the country. There are indications that America may reduce tariffs on Indian products.

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