There has been no direct conversation between the Presidents of America and Taiwan for almost 47 years. Now US President Donald Trump has indicated that he can talk to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te. This one statement has intensified the diplomatic stir between Washington, Beijing and Taipei. China has called it a ‘wrong message’, while Taiwan is considering it a big diplomatic victory for itself. The question is, what happened in 1979 that direct contacts between the American and Taiwanese leaders almost stopped, and why is Trump now trying to change it?

What happened in 1979 that the US President did not talk to Taiwan?

1979 was the year when America officially recognized China in place of Taiwan. At that time, US President Jimmy Carter established diplomatic relations with Beijing and approved the ‘One China Policy’. This meant that America accepts China’s position in which Beijing considers Taiwan a part of China.

After this America ended formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. This was the reason why public or official talks between the US President and the President of Taiwan almost stopped. However, America did not completely distance itself from Taiwan. In the same year, the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, through which America continued security and defense cooperation with Taiwan.

That means America created a balance. On one hand, it kept giving official recognition to China, on the other hand it also kept giving military and economic help to Taiwan.

What is the difference between America’s ‘One China Policy’ and China’s ‘One China Principle’?

Most of the deception takes place here. China says that Taiwan is its part and the world should accept this. China calls this ‘One China Principle’. But America does not technically ‘recognize’ this claim of China, but only believes that China makes such a claim. America has its own ‘One China Policy’, in which it does not openly support Taiwan’s independence and also does not formally approve China’s occupation. This strategic turmoil has been the basis of American policy for the last several decades.

Donald Trump broke this tradition for the first time in 2016. After winning the presidential election, he spoke on phone to the then President of Taiwan Lai Ching-te. This was the first time since 1979 that a US President or President-elect spoke directly to the President of Taiwan. At that time China had given a sharp reaction and called it against American policy.

However, at that time Trump was before assuming power, so Beijing protested. But now the situation is different because Trump is indicating to talk to the President of Taiwan while in office.

Why did a new controversy arise now?

In recent days, there was a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. During this time, the issue of Taiwan again came into focus. According to reports, Xi Jinping told Trump that Taiwan is the most sensitive issue in US-China relations and if it is mishandled, the conflict could escalate.

A few days later, Trump said that he could talk to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te. He also presented the arms deal to Taiwan as a tool to exert pressure in talks with China.

Why is China in so much trouble?

China considers Taiwan as its part and says that if any foreign government makes official contact with the President of Taiwan, it would be a step like considering Taiwan as a separate country. Beijing considers it against its sovereignty.

China has been reacting aggressively to such cases in the past also. In 2022, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan, after which China conducted major military exercises around Taiwan. This time too China has warned America not to give ‘wrong signals’. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has been continuously saying that America should avoid official contact with Taiwan.

Why is Trump doing this?

Experts give 4 big reasons behind this:

• Strategy to put pressure on China: Trump has been adopting a tough stance against China for a long time. He has often been putting pressure on Beijing on the issues of trade, technology and military influence. Now the issue of Taiwan is also being considered a part of the same strategy. Many reports say that Trump is using Taiwan as a negotiation tool against China.
• Balance of power in the Indo-Pacific: America believes that China’s increasing military influence can change the balance of power in Asia. Taiwan is very important in this strategy because it is located very close to China and is also important for US allies like Japan and the Philippines.
• Semiconductor Factor: Taiwan is one of the world’s largest chip manufacturing powers. Companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company make up a large portion of the world’s advanced semiconductor supply. America does not want China’s influence to increase on this industry.
• Domestic Politics: In America, the tough stance against China has now become popular in both parties. In such a situation, this step of Trump presents him as a strong leader in domestic politics also.

Is America now going to consider Taiwan as a country?

Experts believe that this does not appear to be the case at present. America still officially sticks to the ‘One China Policy’. Trump also did not publicly say that America would recognize Taiwan’s independence. But if there is a direct conversation between the US President and the President of Taiwan, it will definitely weaken the decades-old diplomatic tradition.

Meanwhile, what does Taiwan want?

Taiwan considers itself a sovereign democratic country. The elected government there has been continuously trying to increase international recognition. President Lai Ching-te recently said that if Trump talks to him, he will raise the issues of China’s increasing pressure and regional peace. However, Taiwan also officially says that it wants to maintain the current situation and does not want war.

So what can happen next in this case?

Foreign affairs expert and retired JNU professor A. Of. Pasha says, ‘If Trump really talks directly to the President of Taiwan, then there may be a strong reaction from China. This could include military exercises, economic pressure or diplomatic opposition. US-China relations are already under tension over trade, technology and security issues, so the Taiwan issue could become the biggest flashpoint between the two countries.

But on the other hand, it is also true that security and military cooperation between America and Taiwan is continuously increasing. Arms sales, military training and technology partnerships have increased significantly in the last few years.