India’s Trade Outlook: India remains at the top among the fastest growing countries not only in South Asia but also in the world. When US President Donald Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on India and an additional 25 percent tariff on buying oil from Russia, i.e. a total of 50 percent, many experts feared a deep negative impact on India’s economy. But the facts that have come to the contrary may surprise even President Trump himself.

Tariff had no effect

US tariffs have had almost no impact on Indian GDP. On the contrary, India’s exports have registered further growth. According to SBI’s research report, despite fluctuations in the global market, India’s exports have grown strongly.

According to news agency ANI, India’s merchandise exports increased to $220 billion during April to September in the financial year 2025-26. In the same period last year, this figure was 214 billion dollars, which means there has been an increase of about 2.9 percent.

Increase in exports to America

Despite the high tariffs imposed by America, exports from India to America have increased by about 13 percent, i.e. 45 billion dollars. However, if seen on an annual basis, the shipments sent to America in September 2025 have declined by about 12 percent as compared to the previous year.

The report said that America is still India’s main export market, but after July 2025, a big decline was recorded in the total exports to America. This reduction reached approximately 15 percent in September 2025. Apart from this, there has also been a significant decline in marine products and precious stones sent to America.

turning to new markets

On the other hand, India has changed the direction of its exports towards countries like UAE, China, Vietnam, Japan, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nigeria. It is noteworthy that American high tariffs have had the biggest impact on Indian products like textiles, jewelery and lobster. To deal with this situation, the government has approved an assistance amount of Rs 45,000 crore to help exporters, which also includes a credit guarantee of Rs 20,000 crore.

Also read: Amidst tariff bitterness from US, India took such a step, neighboring China will be happy to know

US President Donald Trump has once again given a big statement regarding his tariff policy. Trump has said that soon every citizen of America (except the rich) will be paid $2,000. This amount will be given from the tariff revenue collected by his administration.

“People who are against tariffs are fools!” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. He claimed that during his tenure, America became the richest and most respected country in the world, where inflation was very low and the stock market had touched record highs.

Trump made a big claim

Trump also said that the US is earning trillions of dollars from tariffs, which will not only be used to reduce the $37 trillion national debt, but will also be distributed as dividends among ordinary citizens. According to him, every American (except high-income group) will soon get an amount of at least $2,000.

What did Trump write in his post?

He also mentioned the record-breaking achievements of the American economy in his post. Trump wrote, “401K (retirement savings) are at an all-time high. New plants and factories are being built across the country.” However, Trump has not given any clear information regarding the process or timeline for implementing this plan.

US Finance Secretary had said this

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant told CNBC in August that the administration is focused on reducing the $38.12 trillion national debt, for which tariff revenues are being used.

This statement comes at a time when the US Supreme Court is investigating whether Trump had misused his executive powers and imposed overly broad tariffs. Trump described this court investigation as completely baseless and said that tariffs are his most powerful economic weapon. Trump said, “We are earning trillions of dollars. This policy is making America strong, prosperous and self-reliant.”

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There may be a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month in the midst of a ruckus over the tariff. This meeting is going to be held after the SCO Summit in Tianjin recently, due to which the eyes of the world are on it. However, so far no information has been given by the White House regarding this meeting.

If sources are to be believed, it is possible to meet between the two leaders during the APEC summit in South Korea. APEC is considered to be the main platform of discussion on economic cooperation and strategic policies in the Asia-Pacific region. This time the importance of APEC has also increased because due to the tariff of Trump, there is anger among its member countries.

Swords were drawn between China and America over tariff

The trump administration’s anti -China policies, especially tariffs and business restrictions, have been a major cause of tension between the two countries. Trump recently accused China of conspiring against the US with Russia and North Korea. In such a situation, the possible meeting of Trump and Xi can prove to be a new twist of bilateral relationships, not only formalities.

This meeting is also an opportunity for Trump to respond to his critics. Republican Party and international analysts recently questioned Trump on the hosting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un on behalf of China. If Xi Jinping and Trump interacts in APEC, it can also be a sign of possible improvement in America-China relations.

Putin-Modi attended SCO meeting

The presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un caught the world’s attention at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) conference held in China. Trump called this strategic hosting of China as a conspiracy against the US. He made a sharp comment on social media saying that “It seems that we have lost India and Russia to China. However, he tried to partially back with his talk, stating his relations with Prime Minister Modi as strong and friendly. Still it is clear that countries like India, Russia and North Korea have indirect influence on America-China relations at this time.

Also read: ‘Trump will have to go now’, the decision of US President, against which people took to the streets in Washington

Us Donald Trump Tariff on India: According to a new report by CARAEGE ratings, India may face export losses of $ 3.1 billion (about Rs 25,700 crore) due to a possible new tariff to be declared by US President Donald Trump. This figure is equal to about 0.1 percent of India’s GDP (GDP), which can become a matter of concern for the Indian economy.

According to Smita Rajpurkar, director of CARAIGE Ratings, increasing tariffs may have a serious impact on India’s major export areas, including many areas. For example, textile and garment industry, automobiles and auto parts include IT and pharmaceuticals. Explain that a huge amount of cloth is exported to America from India, which will be affected by increasing tariffs. The Indian auto sector is already facing recession, so it can be further affected by the new tariff. India’s IT and pharmaceutical companies make good profits from the US market. Increasing tariffs will increase cost, which can reduce the competitive capacity of Indian companies.

Possible impact of tariff on India
If US President Donald Trump announces a tariff on India, then many types of major effects can be seen, which is not being considered right for the Indian economy in any way.

Exports fall: Increased tariffs will cost Indian companies to send goods to America, which can reduce their demand.
Putstation in currency: Indian rupee can weaken due to increasing business tension with America, which will make imports expensive and inflation can increase.
Investment reduction: Global investors can avoid investing in India due to increasing trade stress, which can affect Indian stock market.
Business war threat: The report also warns that if the global trade war broke out, it can increase the instability in the Indian economy and negatively affect financial stability.

Can India overcome this crisis?
India will need to adopt some strategies to overcome this crisis, such as focus on other export markets. Along with this, insisting on increasing trade with Europe, Africa and Asian countries by reducing dependence on America. The local industry will have to provide subsidy and tax relief so that they can withstand the impact of the new tariff and maintain competition. India will have to talk to the US on new business treaties, so that economic balance can be maintained.