Currency Update: The effect of increasing tension between America and Iran is now visible on India’s pockets as well. On Thursday, the Indian rupee opened at 96.2475 against the dollar. It has reached very close to its lowest level of 96.96 made in May. The rupee has weakened by about 1.7% so far this month.

Why is the rupee weakening?

The biggest reason for this is the rising prices of crude oil. After increasing US-Iran tension, Brent crude has reached above $ 85 per barrel. There is a fear that if the situation worsens, the oil supply from Hormuz may be further affected. A large part of the world sends oil through this route. India buys more than 85% of its crude oil needs from abroad, hence as soon as oil becomes expensive, the demand for dollars increases and the rupee starts weakening.

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Why did the market panic due to increasing tension?

On Wednesday, America attacked Iran’s coastal defense and missile bases. After this, Iran warned of further reducing energy exports. In such a situation, the world fears that oil supply may be affected. For this reason, investors turned towards the US dollar which was considered safe, which further increased the pressure on the rupee.

Why is the effect of RBI’s efforts not visible?

A few weeks ago, when crude oil became cheaper, the Reserve Bank had taken several steps to increase the inflow of dollars. It was expected that the rupee would strengthen but now oil has become expensive again. Due to increase in demand for dollars in the market, the effect of those steps of RBI has weakened.

What effect will it have on your pocket?

• Both weak rupee and expensive oil can increase the expenses of common people.
• Petrol and diesel can be expensive.
• Due to cost of air fuel, flight tickets may become expensive.
• The prices of mobiles, laptops and other imported goods may increase.
• Expenses for studying abroad and traveling abroad may increase.
• Many imported food items can also become expensive.

If the pressure on both oil and rupee continues for a long time, inflation may increase. In such a situation, it may be difficult for RBI to reduce interest rates, which may affect loans and EMIs.

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What will happen next?

Now the whole world is eyeing the next step of America and Iran. If tensions increase, crude oil may become more expensive and the rupee may remain under pressure. If the rupee goes below the level of 96.96 then it will be the weakest level ever against the dollar.

Rupee Rise Against US Dollar: The war between the US and Europe, which started in February, on which a 60-day ceasefire was imposed a few days ago, has now started again. After the ceasefire, people took a sigh of relief but now with the start of war once again, tension has increased. Meanwhile, while on one hand the prices of crude oil are increasing, on the other hand the Indian rupee has established its dominance.

rupee became stronger
After the war started again, crude oil prices have increased and the dollar has strengthened. Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Indian rupee strengthened by 1 paise and closed at 95.47 against the US dollar. However, the beginning of the day was weak for the rupee. The rupee opened at 95.52 per dollar, which was 4 paise weaker than the previous trading day.

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ups and downs continue
During trading it kept fluctuating between 95.28 to 95.58 and finally closed at 95.47. Earlier on Wednesday, the rupee had closed at 95.48 with a huge fall of 52 paise. Regarding this, analysts say that the possible intervention of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and selling of dollars by government banks has provided support to the rupee. However, rising crude oil prices and strengthening dollar still remain under pressure on the rupee.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, showing the strength of the dollar against 6 major currencies of the world, increased by 0.01% to 100.77. At the same time, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.46% to around $ 78.40 per barrel. There was a rise in the domestic stock market on Thursday. Sensex closed 238.22 points higher at 76,741.82 and Nifty closed 80.75 points higher at 23,962.80.

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RBI on Rupee News: Rupee is among the worst performing major currencies this year. This year its price has fallen more than the dollar. A big statement from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra has come out regarding the sharp fall in the rupee against the dollar. He has said that after the current fall, the rupee is no longer expensive but may become undervalued.

So far in the year 2026, the Indian Rupee has weakened by about 7% against the US Dollar. Even before the war between Iran and America, there was pressure on the rupee due to withdrawal of money by foreign investors, but due to increasing Middle East tension and rise in crude oil prices, the fall accelerated.

What is undervalued currency?

First of all, it should be noted that a currency is considered undervalued when its market transaction rate yield is weaker than the required rate as per the basic fundamentals. In simple words, if the rupee is trading below its fair or equilibrium value, economists can call it undervalued.

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In an interview given to the media, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, after the recent fall of the rupee, this currency is not going to look very expensive. Rather, it could be a low value i.e. undervalued currency. These days the rupee has fallen significantly against the dollar and has crossed 90. It is the market forces that decide what the correct value of the rupee should be. RBI does not target any particular level.

Reason for falling rupee?

There are many reasons behind the weakening of the rupee. The biggest reason is the increasing demand for dollars. Foreign companies and investors are buying dollars. Besides, the prices of crude oil have increased in the international market. India imports most of its oil from abroad. In such a situation, the need for dollars increases and a fall in the rupee is inevitable.

RBI’s preparation amid inflation war

Sanjay Malhotra said, the objective of RBI is still to control inflation. He said that the Central Bank is currently maintaining its Neutral Policy Stance and is fully prepared to take action as per the situation if needed. According to the Governor, despite rising crude oil prices and global tensions, India’s economic condition remains strong.

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Challenge for RBI

Despite the weakening of the rupee, RBI’s policy is clear that there is no fixed level for the rupee. There is confidence in the depth of the market. The Governor said that the Indian banking system is now stronger than before. Forex reserves are at a good level. With this, now economists will have to accept that the rupee should be completely left on the market. Excessive interference may reduce the stock. At present the rupee is above 90 but in the long run it can be stable due to India’s strong fundamentals.

Dollar vs Yuan: There is a war going on between Iran and America for the last several months. The impact of this war is so much on the global market that the Indian rupee is continuously losing its value against the dollar. Not only the Indian rupee but the currencies of many countries are succumbing to the dollar. Meanwhile, there is one country whose currency is shining very brightly at the global level. This currency is ‘Yuan’.

Yuan beats dollar
In fact, China’s central bank People’s Bank of China said on Thursday that the yuan is continuously strengthening against the US dollar. In its released data, the bank said that the daily reference rate of yuan has been fixed at 6.8349 per dollar, which is the strongest level since February 2023. This clearly indicates that China wants to keep its currency stable and strong.

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Yuan shines globally
After this news came out, now many big banks in the global market are looking very positive about Yuan. On the other hand, there is pressure on the US dollar. For this reason, the confidence of investors is gradually increasing towards the Chinese currency. The offshore yuan has also strengthened continuously and on Thursday it was seen trading at around 6.803 per dollar.

Due to this the value is increasing
Let us tell you that China’s exports have strengthened since last year, which is benefiting the Yuan. Apart from this, investor confidence regarding China’s economy has also improved. The expectation of stability in relations between America and China is also supporting the Yuan. According to a report by Bank of America, the yuan may strengthen to 6.70 per dollar by the end of this year. The bank also believes that if the ongoing tension in the Middle East remains low and China continues its policy of currency stability, then the yuan may see further rise.

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The Indian Rupee is currently under heavy pressure and is continuously touching new record lows. On May 19, 2026, it reached the level of 96.52 against the dollar, which is the lowest level till date. At the beginning of the year 2026, the rupee was around 89, but till now it has weakened by 6-7%. There are many global and domestic reasons behind this decline. Tension between Iran and America has pushed crude oil prices above $105-107 per barrel. India imports 85% of its oil needs, hence rising oil prices have increased the import bill and the demand for dollars has increased. On the other hand, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are withdrawing money from Indian markets. So far Rs 2.65 lakh crore has been withdrawn in 2026.

In such a situation, there is only one question in everyone’s mind – will the rupee cross 100? Talking about this, many experts have given their opinion. Let us know the opinion of 5 experts, out of which 2 are in favor of the rupee crossing Rs 100, 2 are against and 1 is of neutral opinion…

In favor: These experts believe that the rupee can cross 100

Speaking to ANI, former UN advisor and economist Santosh Mehrotra said, ‘In the last three months, the rupee has fallen from below 90 to around 96 per dollar. This will have its own impact on inflation. He further warned, ‘If the current pressure continues, the rupee can very easily touch Rs 100 per dollar in the next quarter.’ His opinion strengthens the possibility of the rupee crossing Rs 100.

Currency expert K.N. Dey also does not rule out the possibility of the rupee crossing Rs 100. Speaking to ANI, he said, ‘The speed at which the rupee has fallen since May 11 has shocked the market, yet both the regulator and North Block are silent.’ He further said, ‘Since there is no bottom in sight, estimating the stability point is just a guess. Psychological slide towards 100 is also possible now. His statement explains the sudden turmoil in the market and the rapid pace of decline.

In opposition: These experts do not believe that the 100 mark is likely to be crossed any time soon.

Finance analyst and FX strategist Dheeraj Nim believes that RBI will not allow the rupee to reach the level of 100 anytime soon. Talking to a TV channel, he said, ‘We do not think that RBI will allow the rupee to go to the level of 100 at the moment.’ ANZ Research expects the rupee to end the year at 97.5 per dollar, indicating a move away from the 100 mark despite weakening from current levels.

Mitul Kotecha, Head of FX and EM Macro Strategy Asia (Barclays), told Business Standard, ‘It is not our forecast that the rupee will touch Rs 100 per dollar.’ However, he also admitted that the pace of rupee depreciation has been much faster and more shocking than he had anticipated. He said, ‘We have already crossed the levels which were earlier considered to be a forecast of recession.’ Nevertheless, he has clearly said that the level of 100 is not included in his official forecast.

Neutral: This expert does not consider controlled decline a matter of concern

Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, takes a balanced view on the rupee crossing Rs 100. In an interview to ANI, he said, ‘One day will we see the rupee going into three digits? There is a lot of possibility. However, his emphasis is on how this degradation occurs. He said, ‘If this is systematic depreciation, it ensures that our economy continues to compete.’ He believes that ‘rupee keeps falling against foreign currencies’ and if this happens without major changes and in an orderly manner then it is not a matter of concern, but a coordination has to be done to keep the economy competitive.

RBI’s role is important amid the fall of rupee

Whether the rupee will cross 100 or not will largely depend on oil prices and the trend of foreign investment. If tensions in West Asia ease, the rupee may come back to the level of 92-93. At the same time, RBI still has foreign exchange reserves of about 700 billion dollars, on the basis of which it can prevent excessive fluctuations in the rupee. However, if global conditions worsen further, the psychological level of 100 could become a real possibility.

At present, experts’ opinions are divided, but everyone agrees that the coming months are going to be very challenging for the Indian economy.

Dollar vs Rupee: The rupee continues to decline against the US dollar. Today on May 19, the rupee fell 2 paise against the dollar and opened at 96.37, which is its lowest level till date. This is the eighth consecutive session when the rupee is witnessing a decline.

During trading yesterday, the rupee had reached its lowest recorded level of 96.39 and today as soon as the market opened, it reached close to the same historical low. During this period, the price of Brent crude remained around $110 per barrel. Foreign exchange traders say that the situation of the rupee remains delicate due to rising prices of crude oil in the international markets and obstruction in the import of oil from Gulf countries due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Rupee’s decline since last 8 days

date	Price of 1 dollar (in rupees)	reason for decline
8 May 2026	Rs 94.42	Beginning of decline due to tension in Gulf countries
11 May 2026	Rs 95.39	Rupee crosses psychological level of Rs 95 for the first time
12 May 2026	Rs 95.63	Pressure due to rise in US bond yields
13 May 2026	Rs 95.70	Selling pressure from foreign investors
14 May 2026	Rs 95.71	Trump’s secret trade revealed on OGI website
15 May 2026	Rs 95.99	Crude crossed 110 dollars
18 May 2026	Rs 96.27	Pressure of blockade on Hormuz
19 May 2026	Rs 96.37	lowest level ever today

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Iran War Negatively Impacts the Rupee: The rupee lost its initial gains during trading on Monday and crossed the 95 level to fall at 95.22 against the US dollar. The domestic currency is under pressure due to rising crude oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and strong dollar environment.

Although the rupee started with gains, it later lost its initial gains. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 93.62 per dollar and then rose to 93.57 per dollar, showing an increase of 128 paise from the previous closing level.

Global market shaken due to Iran war

However, this gain could not be sustained and the rupee fell to an all-time low of 95.22 against the US currency in intraday trading. The ongoing war in Iran and increasing tension in the Middle East have shaken the global markets, whose direct impact is being seen on the Indian currency. Earlier on Friday, the rupee fell by 89 paise and closed at a record low of 94.85 per dollar.

What will be the impact on the common man?

The weakening of the rupee means that now everything coming from abroad will become expensive. This means that India will now have to pay more dollars for crude oil, due to which the prices of petrol, diesel and LPG (LPG) may increase in the coming days.

There will be a rise in the prices of everyday goods!

Not only this, the prices of mobile phones, laptops and other gadgets whose parts come from abroad may increase. Along with this, students who are studying abroad or those who are planning to travel abroad will now have to spend more money to buy dollars. Transportation of goods will also be expensive, due to which the prices of food items and everyday items may also rise.

Rupee Hits Record Low: A big fall in the rupee is being seen today amid increasing tension between America and Iran, rising price of crude oil and global uncertainties. Today, on March 27, the rupee has fallen to its lowest level in history against the dollar and has crossed Rs 94.28 per dollar.

Why is the rupee lagging behind the dollar so much?

• There is no sign of the war between America, Israel and Iran ending. Due to the fear of war and its prolongation, the prices of Brent crude in the international markets have crossed $ 100 per barrel. India imports about 88 percent of its oil needs. In such a situation, the demand for dollars has suddenly increased.
• In this environment of global uncertainty, investors are withdrawing money from risky investments like Indian stock market and investing it in US dollars. Due to this the demand for dollars has also increased. The dollar is seen as a ‘safe haven’.
• Foreign institutional investors are continuously exiting by selling Indian shares. Since the start of the war in Iran, foreign investors have sold about $5 billion to $8 billion from the Indian market.
• Iran has placed before America the condition of sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s threat to close this important sea route has raised questions about energy supply, which is scaring investors.

impact on common man

• If the rupee weakens against the dollar, then goods ranging from crude to edible oil, mobiles, electronics will become expensive because India imports these things on a large scale, for which payment is made in dollars. If the rupee weakens, India will have to pay more against the dollar.
• Generally, if inflation increases, then to control it, RBI can increase the repo rate in the coming time. Due to this, your EMI on the loan may become expensive.
• Due to falling rupee, expenditure on foreign travel and study abroad or medical treatment may increase because now more rupees will have to be paid against the dollar.

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Dollar vs Rupee: Due to tensions related to Iran, the Indian Rupee is under heavy pressure and it has reached near the level of 94. On Wednesday, the third trading day of the week, while on one hand the stock market opened with strength, on the other hand the rupee continued to fall. In early trade, the rupee fell by 20 paise to reach 93.96 against the US dollar.

Why is the rupee falling?

Investors’ concerns have increased due to continuous withdrawal of foreign capital. Forex traders say that the fall in global crude oil prices, slight weakness in the dollar and strong start of the domestic stock market have limited the fall of the rupee to some extent. However, the rupee remains under pressure due to uncertainties related to the West Asia crisis and selling by foreign investors.

In the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market, the rupee opened at 93.94 per dollar, which shows a decline of 18 paise from the previous closing price. A day earlier i.e. on Tuesday, the rupee had fallen by 23 paise and closed at 93.76. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the US dollar’s position against six major currencies, fell 0.15 per cent to 99.28.

strength in stock market

Strength was seen in the domestic stock market. BSE Sensex rose 1,161.61 points or 1.57 percent to 75,230.06, while Nifty rose 372.85 points or 1.63 percent to 23,285.25. Internationally, the price of Brent crude fell by 4.4 percent to $ 99.89 per barrel. According to stock market data, foreign institutional investors sold shares worth Rs 8,009.56 crore on Tuesday.

According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, there is pressure on the rupee due to withdrawal of foreign capital and strengthening of the US dollar. He told that in this month alone the rupee has fallen by about 4.5 percent and in the near future it may remain in the range of 93.65 to 94.25.

Whenever the rupee depreciates, it has a direct negative impact on the economy. This increases inflationary pressure, because imported goods become expensive. Apart from this, GDP growth rate is also affected. Besides, the possibility of increase in trade deficit also increases due to increase in import bill.

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Dollar vs Rupee: A major decline has been recorded in the Indian rupee amid increasing tension in the Middle East. At the beginning of the first trading day of the week, the rupee fell by 41 paise and reached its lowest level of 93.94 per dollar. There is huge pressure on the domestic currency due to the ongoing war in West Asia, high global crude oil prices and the strength of the US dollar. Forex traders say that the continuous withdrawal of foreign capital and the initial fall in the domestic stock markets have further weakened the rupee.

Big fall in rupee

The rupee opened at 93.84 per dollar in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market and later fell to a record low of 93.94, showing a decline of 41 paise from the previous closing price. Earlier on Friday also, the rupee had gone below the level of 93 for the first time and fell by 64 paise to close at the all-time low of 93.53.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the US dollar’s position against six major currencies, rose 0.02 percent to 99.66. In the domestic stock markets, Sensex fell 1,306.27 points or 1.75 percent to close at 73,226.69 and Nifty fell 418.25 points or 1.81 percent to close at 22,696.25.

Internationally, the price of Brent crude fell by 0.60 percent to $ 112.90 per barrel. At the same time, according to stock market data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 5,518.39 crore on Friday.

Effect of war on currency

On the ongoing weakness in the rupee, Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said that the rupee had improved for some time due to the bonds issued by SBI and the intervention of RBI, but the continuous decline remains a matter of concern. According to him, RBI does not want the rupee to weaken further and go below the level of 92.

This big fall in the Indian rupee is being seen at a time when the possibility of the ongoing war in the Middle East getting prolonged has increased. The tension between America, Israel and Iran has now reached its fourth week. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump and Tehran are continuously warning each other, indicating that this conflict is not going to end soon.

This war has had a direct impact on the prices of crude oil, which has created tremendous pressure in the global market. So far this month, crude oil prices have seen an increase of up to 50 percent, the impact of which is clearly visible on the Indian economy and the rupee.

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