Us economy slowdown: Due to the tariff war raised around the world towards US President Donald Trump, his own country has been hit by it. In such a situation, the question is arising whether this is not a call for the recession coming in the world’s largest economy America?

The condition of America has become the condition today that during the first quarter of the last three months from January to March, the American economy has slipped down 0.3 percent. This situation has been seen for the first time during the last three years. It is reported in the estimate issued by the US Department of Commerce.

One reason for this slow pace and decline of this economy in the first quarter is that American companies imported a lot of goods from outside due to fear of Trump’s tariff. If we compare the decline in American JDP between January and March since 2024, then the US economy had increased by 2.4 percent at that time.

American economy bad condition

According to the AP report, the import in the US increased by nearly 41 percent, which is the highest since 2020. Consumer spending also saw a decline with a decline and it declined to 1.8 percent as compared to 4 percent from October to December last year.

The direct impact of this decline in the economy is being seen on the American stock market there. As soon as GDP data released, Dow Jones dives 400 points. On the other hand, S&P 500 also slipped 1.5 percent. While Nasdaq Composite has seen a decline of 2 percent.

For the first time in American, it has been imported for the first time 1972 and its bar Corona Kaal and after that. However, in the second quarter, it can be seen upside down and the pressure on GDP may be reduced. Pod Ashwarth of Capital Economics believes that economy can return by growing 2 percent between April-June.

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Us recession: At this time, there is a lot of discussion about the American economy worldwide. There is also a special reason for that. When there is a recession in America, then its threat resonates all over the world. Amid the pressure in global trade due to the imposition of tariffs by President Donald Trump, India is trying to normalize its business relations with both countries China and America. In such a situation, even if there is a recession in the American, it is going to have very little effect on India’s growth rate.

Let us know what economists and investors are saying about this-

1- How many near recession America?

On 7 April in the Economist Poll of Reuters, it was said that there is a 45 per cent probability of recession in the next 12 months, which is the highest since December 2023. The reason for this is the forecast of GDP regarding 2025 and the fall of the Capex plan. Moody’s analyst Mark Jindi said in the podcast of March 2025 that by the end of 2025, there is about 40 percent of the recession. In the Opinion of Bloomberg, Author John said that such decisions are being taken by the wrong policy of 2008.

2-Will the global recession come from American recession?

If there is a recession in America, then its effect will be global in a situation when financial shock will be received like 2008. If this does not happen, then its effect will be less. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) dismissed the possibility of global recession, saying that the US recession in 2001 did not affect globally. The world’s GDP was growing at a speed of 2.5 per cent, but business growth had fallen.

The global recession was covered between 2007-09, which for the first time after the First World War, when GDP moved to 1.3 percent in 2009. However, due to the lockdown in 2020, the global GDP came to 3 percent, which happened for the first time since 1945. Obviously, even if there is a slowdown in America in such a situation, then experts believe that India will have the least impact.

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