Assembly elections are to be held in the Union Territory of Puducherry along with the states of Assam and Kerala on 9 April. Voting is in Tamil Nadu on 23rd April. Assembly elections in West Bengal will be held in two phases, voting is on 23rd and 29th April. Before this the opinion poll has arrived. Know here who seems to be gaining in which state, which party can win how many seats and whose government can be formed.

Opinion poll of Assam assembly elections 2026

Elections will be held in one phase in Assam. Voting is on 9th April. Chanakya Strategy has predicted a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress in vote share. According to this, BJP can get 83 to 90 seats. BJP alliance can once again form government in Assam. Talking about vote share, Congress is likely to get 39 to 44 percent votes, while BJP is likely to get 45 to 48 percent votes.

Chanakya Strategy Survey has shown the formation of BJP government in Assam. According to the survey, Bharatiya Janata Party can win 83 to 90 seats, while Congress can win only 30 to 36 seats. Others are expected to get 3 to 6 seats.

Opinion Poll of Kerala Assembly Elections 2026

According to Matriz Opinion Poll, Left Democratic Front (LDF) may get 62 to 68 seats in Kerala. United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to get 67 to 73 seats. BJP can win only 5 to 8 seats, while others are expected to get 3 seats. That means Bharatiya Janata Party is not seen in competition in Kerala.

The Congress led United Democratic Front will be happy to see this survey. Let us tell you that LDF is in government in Kerala for the last decade. The total assembly seats in Kerala are 140, of which 71 is the majority figure.

West Bengal Opinion Poll 2026

Opinion poll has increased the concern of Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. According to the survey, there is a contest between BJP and TMC in the state. According to the opinion poll of MATRIZE, BJP can win 140-160 seats. TMC is expected to get 130-150 seats, while other parties can win 8 to 16 seats.

There are total 294 assembly seats in West Bengal. This time the election is a close contest. If we look at the vote share, the survey has estimated that Bharatiya Janata Party may get 41 percent votes and Trinamool Congress may get 43 percent votes. Although in the survey TMC can form the government once again, but BJP is not far behind and anything can happen.

Opinion Poll of Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026

NDA is likely to get majority in Tamil Nadu. DMK alliance may suffer loss. According to the opinion poll of MATRIZE, DMK alliance can get 102 to 115 seats, while NDA alliance can win 107 to 120 seats. TVK is expected to get 5 to 12 seats and others 1 to 6 seats.

There are 234 seats in Tamil Nadu, elections for which will be held in one phase. Voting is in Tamil Nadu on 23 April.

Bengal Election Opinion Poll: Even before the elections, the contest in West Bengal politics has reached a very interesting turn. Matriz’s latest opinion poll has clearly indicated that this time the fight is going to be straight, tough and will drag on till the last vote.

According to the survey, in vote percentage, Trinamool Congress may get 43% support, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may get 41% support and other parties may get 16% support. That means TMC definitely has a slight lead, but this difference is so small that the electoral picture can change at any time.

The special thing is that this difference of 2% can prove to be decisive on many seats. Whereas 16% ‘other’ votes can play the role of kingmaker in this election. In such a situation, it is clear that this time the contest in Bengal is going to be very tough.

‘Others’ played – whose game will it spoil?

In this close contest of Bengal, 16% vote share of ‘Others’ has become the biggest suspense. This camp includes parties like Congress, Left and Owaisi’s AIMIM, which are not directly fighting for power, but can have a big impact on the results.

Political equations show that these votes are traditionally considered anti-BJP, but their presence in many seats can also make a dent in TMC’s vote bank.

Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has also warned about this. He said, ‘In the last assembly elections, polarization of votes had cost us the price of defeat.’

This time AIMIM is contesting the elections in alliance with the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) formed by Humayun Kabir. It is believed that the AIMIM-AJUP alliance can affect the vote share in Muslim dominated seats.

At the same time, this election is mainly being seen as a direct contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In such a situation, this vote share of ‘others’ can become a factor that complicates the contest more than making any one party win. Now the focus is on in whose favor this 16% vote tilts and in whose favor it spoils the game.

16% of ‘Others’-Who is the kingmaker?

This pre-poll survey of ABP-Matrize is not just statistics but an indication of electoral trend. This shows that this time in Bengal, there is a direct fight between TMC and BJP, where no party can register a comfortable victory. At the same time, it is also clear that the final results will completely depend on the last stages of voting and the mood of the voters.

The most important role in this entire electoral equation is believed to be the 16% vote share of ‘Others’. This is the part that can ultimately decide the stance of power. Small parties and independent candidates, who are often ignored, can become real game changers this time. If this vote tilts towards any one big party, then the entire mathematics of seats can change in a moment.

Experts believe that this 16% vote will play an important role in giving a decisive lead in a close contest. This is the reason why big parties are now making different strategies to woo these voters – from local issues to regional equations, every aspect is being focused on.

It is clear that this time the victory will not be decided only by the big vote share, but by getting this decisive part of ‘others’ in our favor. This means that instead of strengthening one side, this vote share can play a more important role in spoiling the game of the other. Now the big question is whether the ‘other’ votes will spoil the equation this time too or will it give a decisive lead to any one party?

Increase in votes, but game stuck in seats

Interestingly, there is no direct correlation between the vote percentage and the estimates of seats. The figures indicate that the contest is as close in seats as it is in votes. According to the survey, Trinamool Congress may get 140 to 160 seats, while Bharatiya Janata Party may get between 130 to 150 seats. Whereas other parties are expected to get 8 to 16 seats.

This means that despite the lead, the path does not seem easy for TMC. BJP is very close and even a little vote can change the entire arithmetic of swing seats.

It is clear that this election is not going to be a story of one-sided victory, but is indicating a tough competition that will continue till the last stage, where the decision of every seat will be very important.

Difference of 2% votes, but decision of power

There seems to be a difference of only 2% votes between Trinamool Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party, but this small gap can become the key to power. In electoral politics, sometimes small differences become the cause of big upsets, and Bengal is not an exception to this. On many seats in the state, victory or defeat has been decided by very few votes. In such a situation, a swing of 2% can change the mathematics of dozens of seats. This is the reason why both the parties are now in no mood to give any relaxation.

The campaign on the ground has intensified – from booth management to micro-level strategy, work is being done in detail on every aspect. It is clear that this time the contest will depend more on strategy and last-minute trends than on statistics, where every vote can prove to be decisive.

Also read: Assam Assembly Election 2026: ‘Women will get reservation, government called a special session of Parliament,’ PM Modi made a big announcement from Assam.

Opinion Poll 2026: There is intense political activity regarding the assembly elections to be held in four states of India – West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Meanwhile, opinion polls of the four states have come out, in which it has become clear which party or alliance is getting the lead in these four states. Elections are going to be held in two phases on 294 assembly seats in West Bengal, where CM Mamata Banerjee’s ruling party Trinamool Congress (TMC) is contesting with the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while in Assam, which has 126 assembly seats, the Congress party is in the fray against the ruling BJP.

CM Stalin’s party DMK is going to compete with the NDA alliance of BJP and AIADMK for 234 assembly seats in Tamil Nadu, while the ruling left alliance LDF, UDF alliance with other parties including Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party are in the electoral fray to win 140 assembly seats in Kerala.

Whose government is being formed in Bengal according to the opinion poll?

According to the latest opinion poll of Matriz, the contest in West Bengal politics has reached a very interesting mode even before the elections. The figures revealed in the opinion poll are shocking for all the political parties. According to Matriz’s survey, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) may get 140 to 160 seats in the West Bengal Assembly elections with 43 percent votes. At the same time, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can win 130 to 150 seats with 41 percent votes, while other parties of the state can win 8 to 16 seats with 16 percent votes. The majority figure in West Bengal is 148. In such a situation, TMC definitely has a slight lead of 2 percent in the opinion poll, but this difference is so small that the electoral picture can change at any time.

Clean sweep for BJP in Assam in opinion poll

According to the survey conducted by Matrize and Chanakya, the BJP-led NDA alliance is in a strong position in the upcoming assembly elections in Assam and its chances of coming back to power or retaining power appear high.

According to the matrix, if we talk about vote share, BJP+ alliance can get 46 percent votes, Congress+ alliance can get 36 percent votes and others can get 18 percent votes. Talking about seats, BJP+ alliance is likely to get 92 to 102 seats, Congress+ alliance is likely to get 22 to 32 seats and others are likely to get 4 to 7 seats.

At the same time, according to Chanakya’s survey, in Assam, Bharatiya Janata Party alliance may get 83 to 90 seats, Congress+ alliance may get 30 to 36 seats and others may get 3 to 6 seats.

NDA’s star can shine in Tamil Nadu

According to the MATRIZE opinion poll shown on India TV, this time the star of AIADMK led NDA can shine in the Tamil Nadu assembly elections. According to the opinion poll, MK Stalin’s party DMK may get 102 to 115 seats in the elections. Whereas the NDA alliance of BJP and AIADMK is likely to get 107 to 120 seats. At the same time, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) of actor-turned-politician Thalapathy Vijay may get 5 to 12 seats and others are likely to get one to six seats.

Who will get power in the three-way contest in Kerala?

According to the MATRIZE opinion poll shown on India TV, the ruling Left alliance in Kerala is likely to get 62 to 68 seats, while the Congress-led UDF alliance is seen getting a lead in the elections with 67 to 73 seats. Whereas in the state, Bharatiya Janata Party can win 5 to 8 seats with 15 percent vote share and others are likely to win zero to three seats.

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There are elections next month in 4 states including West Bengal and one Union Territory, the dates of which have been announced. Elections will be held in Bengal in 2 phases (23-29 April). Before this, latest opinion poll has come out, which is in favor of Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress. According to the pre-poll survey released by CNN-News18 and Vote Vibe, Trinamool Congress can form the government for the fourth consecutive time in West Bengal. This poll has revealed that Mamata Banerjee’s popularity as Chief Minister remains intact.

There are a total of 294 seats in the West Bengal Assembly, in which more than 148 seats have to be won to achieve majority. In the survey conducted before the elections, it has been estimated that Trinamool Congress under the leadership of Mamata Banerjee can win 184 to 194 seats, which is more than the majority figure. TMC has also got lead in terms of vote share. According to the survey, 41.9 percent people have supported Trinamool Congress and 34.9 percent people have supported BJP.

Mamta Banerjee’s popularity continues

According to opinion poll, Bharatiya Janata Party can win 98 to 108 seats in West Bengal, which is less than the majority figure. According to this, Mamata Banerjee remains the basis of TMC’s victory. In the survey, 48.8 percent people chose Mamata Banerjee as the Chief Minister, 33.4 percent people chose BJP’s Subhendu Adhikari.

43.3 percent people rated the work of the state government as good or very good. Whereas the number of people who said that the work of the government was very bad was 20.6 percent, 18.3 percent said that the work of the government was bad. There were 36.5 percent people who said that they would once again vote for the present TMC MLAs.

What is caste statistics?

Mamta Banerjee’s fame remains in the Muslim community. 44.2 percent people described the work of the Trinamool government as very good, while the most critical were the Scheduled Tribe and upper caste Hindu voters. 26.6 percent of both the groups described the work of the current government as very bad.

Opinion polls show that the weakness of the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal is the division within the party. In the survey, 19.9 percent people pointed towards fighting and factionalism within BJP. 12.5 percent believe that the party does not know the culture of Bengal and 17.2 percent believe that BJP lacks a state-level leader.