Indian Rupee: The war between Iran and the US, which started in February, is still going on. Indian economy is also having to bear the brunt of this. Due to this war, the rupee is falling against the dollar. Crude oil inflation and foreign investment are also major reasons behind this. India imports a large part of its oil requirement from abroad, hence the increase in demand for dollar puts pressure on the rupee.

Whereas in America, due to high interest rates, investors are attracted towards the dollar, due to which there is weakness in the currencies of emerging markets. In such a situation, the Indian rupee is also continuously becoming weak.

Rupee has fallen so much in 12 years

• In the year 2014, 1 dollar was equal to 58.94 Indian rupees.
• In the year 2019, the rupee fell by more than 17% to 69.37 per dollar.
• In June 2024, the rupee had reached 83.38 against the dollar.
• In the year 2026, the rupee will reach around Rs 96 against the dollar.
• The rupee has declined by about 14.75% in the last two years.
• Overall, the rupee has weakened by 62.33% against the dollar in 12 years.

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How has Pakistani Rupee remained stable?
While on one hand the Indian rupee is falling, on the other hand the Pakistani rupee has strengthened by 1.31% against the dollar in the last six months. At present the price of 1 dollar is about 278 Pakistani rupees. The foreign exchange situation in Pakistan has improved somewhat these days. Pressure on the dollar reduced due to current account surplus in the March quarter. Apart from this, investors’ confidence has increased due to Saudi Arabia’s financial help and return to the international bond market.

Vijay Valecha, CIO of Century Financial, told Khaleej Times of Dubai that the main reason for the stability of the rupee is not the domestic economy, but external support and better conditions. If oil prices remain under control, foreign exchange reserves and remittances continue to increase, then the Pakistani rupee may remain strong further.

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Condition of other Asian countries

Thailand
The name of Thailand’s currency is Baht, it has been among the strong performing currencies of Asia. The baht fell below 31 per dollar in January, which was its strongest level since June 2021. The currency has strengthened by more than 10% in one year. Thailand’s current account surplus and growing trade surplus with the US supported the currency. The sharp increase in electronics exports was also a major reason for this. The Thai Baht remained strong despite the soft monetary policy.

China
China’s currency Renminbi (Yuan) reached its strongest level in three years against the dollar. The People’s Bank of China set the daily fixing of the yuan at 6.8467 per dollar in May. America and Europe have been accusing China of keeping its currency weak. According to Goldman Sachs, the yuan is still devalued by about 20% and may strengthen further.

Singapore
The Singapore dollar has strengthened by about 1% in the last five months. Currently, about 1.28 Singapore dollars have to be paid against 1 US dollar. The economy was strengthened by the boom in Artificial Intelligence and Electronics sectors. Singapore’s GDP grew by 6% in the first quarter. Non-oil domestic exports rose 24.5% in April, the fastest growth since 2012. A sharp growth of 66.7% was recorded in electronics exports.