Most parts of the country are experiencing intense heat since the month of April. Because of this people are very worried. In many areas of North, Central and Eastern India the temperature has reached 43 to 44 degrees Celsius. India Meteorological Department i.e. IMD has also warned of increasing heat in the coming days. However, amidst this scorching heat, a relief news has also emerged. New weather forecasts are suggesting that this year the south-west monsoon may arrive before the normal time. Due to this, there may be good rains in many parts of South India by the end of May.

According to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast i.e. ECMWF, there are indications of an early onset of monsoon. Last year also in 2025, it was estimated that monsoon would reach Kerala between 27th and 29th May, but it had advanced even before that. Similarly, this time also there are indications that monsoon may arrive before the scheduled time. Monsoon reaches Andaman and Nicobar Islands first. This time it is estimated that monsoon may start here between 18th to 25th May. Currently, weather models are showing that the moisture-laden winds coming from the Indian Ocean are intensifying, which are forming over the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Due to these winds, these areas may receive 30 to 60 mm more rainfall than normal at that time.

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How are tropical systems formed?

There is also a 20 to 40 percent chance of a tropical system forming north of Andaman. Such systems generally help advance the monsoon, as they draw in more moisture and speed up the rain process. After this, the monsoon is expected to advance further between May 25 and June 1. During this period, strong westerly winds may blow over the south-east Arabian Sea, which will carry the moisture directly towards the south-west coast of India. Due to this, there may be more rain than normal in southern parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

Important news for South India

This news is very important for South India, because many areas here depend on monsoon for agriculture and water. If it rains early, people will get relief from the heat and farming work will also be able to start on time. Some major reasons affecting the weather also seem to be in favor of monsoon this time. One of these is the Indian Ocean Dipole i.e. IOD. When the water in the western part of the Indian Ocean is warmer than the eastern part, it is called positive IOD. In such a situation, more moisture comes towards India and the monsoon is generally stronger. This time it is estimated that IOD may be in favor of monsoon.

Effect of intense heat on monsoon

The extreme heat at the beginning of this year may also have an impact on the monsoon. Due to excessive heat, winds coming from the sea may become active earlier, due to which the chances of early arrival of monsoon increases. Meteorologists say that if there is no major change in the condition of the ocean and atmosphere, then monsoon can knock in India around May 25. The indications so far suggest that this year the monsoon may arrive earlier than normal. Although there is no respite from the heat in many parts of the country, but if these estimates prove to be correct, then the people of South India may get great relief in the coming days.

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