By Admin 
Iran has been boiling for the last 20 days. Millions of people are on the streets against the country’s supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Thousands of people have died. Trump has also interfered in this. America has come with the protesters. Iran’s President Masoud Pajshekian himself is giving statements in support of the protesters. Despite this, no coup has taken place in Iran and there are no remote chances of it taking place.
After all, why is the ongoing protest in Iran against Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei not becoming so fatal that Khamenei bows down? After all, what power does Khamenei have that is saving him? After all, what were the circumstances in 1979 that in similar demonstrations, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini led to Islamic revolution in Iran by overthrowing Shah Reza Pahlavi. After all, what is the difference between then and now?
From the beginning of the year 2024, the people of Iran started getting worried due to rising inflation, falling prices of Rial, disrupted supply of electricity and gas. There was also a shortage of water, which made life difficult for the people. The remaining work was completed during the conflict between America and Iran, when Iran’s nuclear plant was destroyed in the American attack.
What slogans were echoing on the streets of Iran?
After this, Iran became so economically weak that the people there came out on the streets. It started on 28 December 2025 from Tehran, the capital of Iran, where shopkeepers started protesting in the Grand Bazaar which gradually reached the university. Although initially these demonstrations were of very small scale. In this, among the anti-government slogans, another slogan started rising “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, My Life for Iran”,
That means neither Gaza nor Lebanon is concerned. We are Iranians and we should be concerned only with Iran. This slogan was raised because Iran had included itself in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza. Iran was waging an indirect war against Israel through the Lebanese group Hezbollah and whatever the price was, ordinary Iranians were paying it, so they separated themselves from other countries and gave a slogan. “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, My Life for Iran”
Within a week, first the big cities of Iran and then the whole of Iran came out on the streets for the movement. The demands of the protesters changed and now people started demanding independence from Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Then the Iranian army also came down on the road. On the orders of Khamenei, the Iranian army started taking action, started using sticks and when things did not work out, they started firing bullets also.
Death toll crosses 3 thousand
According to the Iranian government, 2500 people have died in army firing, while different figures put the death toll between 3 thousand and 10 thousand. More than 100 army personnel have also been murdered by the mob, after which even more strictness is being imposed on the protesters and for some protesters, the death penalty has also been decided by hanging without any trial.
The attitude of President Masoud Pajshekian himself has also changed and he has started talking about accepting the protesters. Trump himself is instigating the protesters and saying that they should capture government buildings of Iran, America will help in this and that help is on the way. Reza Pahlavi, the son of Shah Reza Pahlavi, who overthrew the Islamic Revolution and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini started ruling Iran, is also advising the Iranian army to join the protesters.
However, despite this massacre, there has not been even an iota of difference in the health of Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. There are some selected reasons for this, which even America cannot ignore, hence it is avoiding direct action.
1. Who is the leader of the protesters inside Iran?
This is the biggest question, due to which the answer is not being found, the health of Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei is not being affected. Because the leaders of the Iranian protesters are both inside and outside Iran and there is no coordination between them. No one knows who is leading the protests where they are taking place, i.e. in Iran. Even if Khamenei leaves power, no one knows who among these protesters will take over the power of Iran.
The reason for this is that whenever there have been demonstrations in Iran and someone has tried to become their leader, he has been crushed by the Iranian government in such a way that he has never been able to emerge. For example, in June 2009, when demonstrations took place in Iran right after the victory of then President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir-Hossein Mosavi became the leader of that demonstration.
Mosavi had previously been the Prime Minister of Iran and was himself a presidential candidate in the 2009 elections, but when Mosavi lost the election, he refused to accept the election results. When the demonstrations started, he became its leader and then in February 2011, he was taken into custody. He was put under house arrest and since then till today he has not been able to come out of the house arrest.
Another leader of this movement was Mahdi Karroubi. He also participated in the protest by refusing to accept the election results. In 2011, he was also put under house arrest, but after 14 years, in March 2025, the Iranian Army has removed his house arrest. Both these examples are witness to the fact that if anyone emerges as a leader in the ongoing protests in Iran, he will meet the same fate as Mosavi or Karroubi, that is why everyone is protesting.
People are gathering through networking. Internet is banned so the crowd is gathering in different groups. There are groups of students, there are groups of businessmen, there are groups of shopkeepers, everyone is coming out on the road in small groups and the crowd is getting bigger. People are also joining the movement by connecting with each other through the gaming app Discord, but they do not have any universally accepted leader. Therefore, Ayatollah Khamenei is not making any difference.
2. Who is the leader of the protesters outside Iran?
No one has any correct answer to this question either. Yes, there is a name, which is communicating with the people of Iran through media and social media, whose name is Reza Pahlavi. Reza Pahlavi is the son of Reza Shah Pahlavi, the Sultan of Iran. When the Islamic Revolution took place in 1979, this same Raza Shah Pahlavi had fled Iran during the movement. Then Ayatollah Khomeini started his rule over Iran. Raza Pahlavi is the son of Raza Shah Pahlavi, who is living in exile in America. He is running the Iran National Council while staying in America.
America also wants Reza Pahlavi and Raza also has the support of Israel, but it is not yet decided that if the Khamenei rule ends, monarchy will return in Iran and Reza Pahlavi will become the new king. Because the Republican and left groups in Iran are opposing Khamenei as well as Reza Pahlavi. In such a situation, Ayatollah Hosseini Khamenei is not able to see Reza Pahlavi as a problem for himself.
3. Who is the leader of Mujahids of Iran?
There is also an organization of Mujahideen in Iran, whose name is People’s Mujahideen Organization. Its Persian name is Mujahideen-e-Khalq Organization. In short form it is also called MEK or MKO. This is the leftist organization of Iran, which also carried out bombings in the movement against Shah Reza Pahlavi in 1979. Even when America intervened in Iran in the 70s, these Mujahids fought against America, but they were never contenders for power. Because during the war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, this organization supported Iraq and the common people of Iran can never forgive Mujahideen-e-Khalq for this.
The leader of this group has been Masood Razavi, who was exiled from Iran and first went to France and then to Iraq. He has never been seen for the last 20 years. His wife Maryam Razavi is running an organization regarding Iran which is being called National Council of Resistance, but its reach is limited to western countries like France and Albania.
There are other small groups that are involved in the protests or have been involved in the protests in the past, but there is no Pan-Iran acceptance of them that Ayatollah Khamenei would be in any danger from them. For example, in 2022, when the Iranian police killed Mahsa Amini in the Hijab controversy in Iran, after that the Iranian people sitting outside Iran formed a front which was named Secular Democratic Republic in Iran.
Story of coup in Iran
This front advocated separation of religion and state, advocated free elections, established an impartial judiciary and media, but the people of Iran did not recognize this front and this front could not do anything. Rest of the people in Iran are some Kurds, some Baloch, some people from Azerbaijan. They all have their own groups, but they are not in a position to have any influence on the power of Iran. As a result, Khamenei is relaxed on their behalf.
Now the question is what happened in 1979 that just a few days after the beginning of the movement, Shah had to flee and there was a coup in Iran. In fact, even though Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was in exile at that time, he was also the only hero of the revolution about whom there was no doubt in Iran. Another major reason was the health of Sultan Mohammad Raza Shah Pahlavi, due to which his activity had reduced. He was suffering from cancer at that time and had to leave Iran again and again for treatment. During the protest, Raza Shah Pahlavi went abroad for treatment, due to which no attempt was made to crush the movement.
The police of Iran were maintaining social order. The army which was engaged in protecting the border. Shah’s intelligence organization SAVAK was trying to suppress the movement, but it was not effective and when Shah went abroad, no one tried to suppress the movement. Everyone just had to do their own thing and then what was supposed to happen happened. When Khomeini returned to Tehran, a crowd of millions of people gathered and the Shah was overthrown in Iran.
Khamenei does not have the option to leave Iran
Whereas despite being old, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei’s hold not only on the intelligence system but also on the army and police remains intact. After the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the system in Iran was made such that the entire power of the army was concentrated in the office of the supreme religious leader i.e. Ali Khamenei.
The bigger thing is that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei does not have the option of fleeing the country like Reza Shah Pahlavi, because Ayatollah Ali Khamenei not only represents Iran but he also represents a large section of Islam, Shia. Rohella Khomeini, who has been replaced by Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, had gained power in Iran through the Islamic Revolution.
If Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei leaves Iran in the meantime to save his life, then a different message will be sent to the entire Islamic world and in the Islamic world divided between Shia and Sunni, it will again be said that the leader of Shia Muslims, who called himself the leader of Islam as well, who called himself the Rahbar-e-Inquilab of Iran, has left the war and run away.
Why is Khamenei not bowing down to American threats?
At the last stage of his life, when Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei has turned 86, he does not want to stick such a stain on his forehead. In such a situation, even in the face of war, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei would prefer martyrdom instead of running away to be recorded in history and this is what he is saying, even if he is not giving the reason for this.
This is the reason why even at this stage of his age he is not bowing down to the American threat. He is saying that Iran is ready for war and he is ready to sacrifice his life in this war, but despite so much rhetoric, Trump is not directly interfering in Iran. They are waiting.
The wait is that if Khamenei leaves on his own or if he is killed in the war, then who will take his place. Because Khamenei’s last day will also be the last day of Iran being an Islamic Republic and without deciding what will happen to Iran after that, Trump will try to keep himself away from Iran.
Yes, the spark will keep burning. Trump will continue to fan that spark, but from a distance. Because there is a danger of getting burnt in the fire that will come out of that spark and Trump, apart from being the American President, is also a businessman who never plays with risks.