By Admin 
The results of Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 are being eagerly awaited. Meanwhile, most of the exit polls have claimed the return of Nitish Kumar led NDA to power with an average victory of 125 seats. At the same time, the opposition Grand Alliance has been given an average of 87 seats. Now the question arises that how much should exit polls be trusted? What does history say?
Let us know how accurate and wrong the exit polls were in the last two and a half decades and four assembly elections.
When exit polls were proved wrong in Bihar Assembly elections 2020
In the year 2020, an average of 11 exit polls had predicted that the Grand Alliance led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) would form the government, albeit by a small margin. During that time, many exit polls had claimed that the Grand Alliance had won 125 seats, which was three seats more than the majority figure (122). At the same time, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JDU) was said to get 108 seats.
In 2020, these average 11 exit polls proved wrong. NDA got 17 more seats and Grand Alliance got 15 seats less. Contrary to the exit poll figures, the NDA government came to power. The end result was that the NDA crossed the majority mark in the House by a very small margin. The ruling coalition party NDA got 125 seats (BJP- 74, JDU- 43), while the Grand Alliance got 110 seats (RJD- 75, Congress- 19).
How many exit polls were correct in 2015?
In the year 2015, Nitish Kumar’s JDU was a part of the grand alliance and BJP was leading the NDA. Other local parties were also included in NDA. At that time, six big exit polls had claimed that there would be an equal contest between the Grand Alliance and the NDA, but the government would be formed by the Grand Alliance. Exit polls had estimated that the Grand Alliance could get 123 seats while the BJP-led NDA could get 114 seats.
At the same time, three other exit polls had given the Grand Alliance victory by a huge margin and two exit polls believed that the NDA would form the government. Apart from this, there was an exit poll which indicated the possibility of a hung assembly.
After this, what happened was that the Grand Alliance came to power by winning two-thirds of the seats with a huge margin. That is, the exit poll gave the correct victory figures, but the Grand Alliance brought more seats than expected.
In the Bihar Assembly elections 2015, the Grand Alliance won 178 seats (RJD- 80, JDU- 71, Congress- 27), while the NDA could win only 58 constituencies (BJP- 53).
Where were the exit polls lagging behind in Bihar Assembly elections 2010?
In the 2010 assembly elections, exit polls had claimed the victory of NDA but had underestimated the wave of Nitish Kumar. BJP and JDU were part of NDA, while LJP contested the elections in alliance with RJD. JDU got 115 seats, while BJP got 91 seats. Apart from this, RJD had won 22 seats, Congress 4 and LJP 3 seats.
What happened in Bihar Assembly elections 2005?
Exit polls had predicted a victory for the NDA, and most exit polls had given the NDA 120 to 130 seats, while the RJD+ was projected to get between 90 and 100 seats.
What was the result?
JDU won 88 seats, BJP won 55 seats, while RJD won 54 seats. Whereas, LJP got 10 seats and Congress got 9 seats. Even during this period, the exit polls were lagging far behind in the figures.