By Admin 
Exit polls of Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 are presenting a clear picture that Congress led UDF is not only ahead but also seems to be standing close to power with a comfortable lead. According to Poll Mantra’s exit poll, the estimate of 88 to 92 seats takes it much above the majority figure of 70. In comparison, the ruling LDF seems to be limited to 42 to 46 seats, which is a sign of its weakness in many areas. NDA and other parties seem to be marginalized this time too, but the story is not just about seats. The real interest is in the leadership race, where the contest still remains open and tough.
What is the wind saying on the ground?
If we talk about Poll Mantra’s exit poll, the signals coming from different parts of the state are not one-sided but definitely show a clear inclination. UDF has gained a strong hold on the narrative in the Malabar region. This increase seems to be increasing further in Central Kerala. There is definitely competition in Travancore, but it is not enough to change the picture of the entire state.
These trends clearly mean that there is no longer a close fight here, rather a clear inclination of public opinion is visible. The LDF still has some strong pockets, but the statewide wave seems to be moving away from it.
Who is making the narrative?
According to Poll Mantra, in the last 60 days the election discussion has not revolved around any one face. Many leaders have together created a political environment. In this period, KC Venugopal (21.4%) has emerged as the most influential leader, who gave direction to the narrative. After him, the influence of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan (18.6%) continues, while V.D. Satishan (16.2%) also remains close. Apart from this, leaders like Shashi Tharoor (12.5%) and Shafi Parambil (10.1%) have also registered a strong presence. Here UDF is ahead not only in seats but also at the level of discussion. At the same time, the influence of LDF seems to be mostly limited to Pinarayi Vijayan.
CM face: open and tough contest
The interesting thing is that despite such a clear lead, the picture regarding the Chief Minister’s face is not clear. According to Poll Mantra’s survey, this contest remains completely open and competitive. V.D. Satheesan is in a slight lead with 21.2%, but Pinarayi Vijayan is close behind with 20.5%. KC Venugopal is in third place with 17.8% and this makes him the ‘dark horse’ of this race. At the next level K.K. Shailaja and Ramesh Chennithala are tied with 11.2%, while Rajeev Chandrasekhar is in the contest with 10.5%.
Political signals of Kerala elections
The biggest indication is that voters are not standing behind any one face. The three top leaders are very close to each other, which means the final decision is still open. This situation can be beneficial for UDF, because it has many strong faces. Whereas LDF still seems to be more dependent on the leadership of Pinarayi Vijayan.
Also read: West Bengal Exit Poll 2026: Congress’s ‘balle-balle’ in this Exit Poll, five times the gain of seats in Bengal, TMC-BJP kept watching