By Admin 
- Crude oil prices fell due to US-Iran agreement and opening of Hormuz.
- Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs reduced estimates to $80 per barrel.
- The peace agreement will normalize oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil: Benchmark Brent crude has slipped below $ 83 per barrel due to the news of peace agreement regarding ceasefire between America and Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, American WTI crude is also trading around $81.
According to Bloomberg report, meanwhile, two global brokerage firms Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have reduced their estimate of crude oil prices to $ 80 per barrel. The interim peace agreement between America and Iran is going to be signed in Switzerland next Friday (June 19). Meanwhile, after the movement of ships through Hormuz started, both these big financial institutions have released their reports regarding the prices of crude oil.
Now that a peace agreement is going to be signed between the two, the global supply of gas and oil through Hormuz will become normal again. If the long-standing blockade imposed by both America and Iran is also lifted, then the uncertainty created regarding energy supply across the world will also come to an end. Due to this, these banks have made huge cuts in their old estimates.
What is the stance of Goldman Sachs?
Goldman Sachs has reduced its estimate of Brent crude for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2026 from the earlier $ 90 per barrel to $ 80 per barrel. Along with this, it has also reduced its average estimate for 2027 from $ 80 per barrel to $ 75 per barrel.
What did Morgan Stanley say?
Morgan Stanley has also in its report reduced its estimate of branded crude for the fourth quarter (Q4) by $ 15 directly to $ 80 per barrel, which was earlier $ 95 per barrel amid the situation of war and uncertainty. Its estimate for the third quarter (Q3) has been reduced by $ 10 from $ 100 per barrel to $ 90 per barrel.
Why is this estimate important for India?
India imports more than 85% of its crude oil requirement from abroad. In such a situation, if crude oil falls to $ 80 per barrel, then India’s import bill will reduce. India largely spends dollars from its foreign reserves to pay for the crude oil purchased from abroad. Due to this, pressure on the rupee increases, inflation starts skyrocketing and current account deficit also starts increasing.
As a result of the increase in the price of crude oil in the last few days, the prices of petrol and diesel in the country have increased by about Rs 7.50 so far. Due to this, expenditure on logistics and transportation has increased and production cost has increased. As a result, prices of many things have increased.
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