By Admin 
Delimitation Bill is no longer just a legal process. This has become one of the hottest issues of Indian politics. In April 2026, this bill was defeated by 54 votes, but now new political equations are being created. There has been rebellion in Trinamool Congress (TMC), DMK has separated from the INDIA alliance and NDA’s strength is expected to increase in Rajya Sabha. The question arises whether these changes will be able to change the numbers game so much that the Modi government can cross the magical figure of 360? Come, let’s delve into the world of numbers and understand the whole game…
What is Delimitation Bill and what is included in it?
The Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill 2026 aims to increase the number of Lok Sabha seats from the current 543 to 850 and delimit constituencies on the basis of the 2011 census. One of its major objectives is to implement 33 percent reservation for women under the Nari Shakti Vandan Act. This bill was defeated in April 2026 because apart from the opposition, many regional parties including TMC and DMK also strongly opposed it.
How many marks are required to pass?
This bill is a constitutional amendment, hence ‘special majority’ is required to pass it. Under Article 368, two conditions must be fulfilled for this:
- First condition: Majority of the total members of the House.
- Second condition: Two-thirds (2/3rd) majority of the voting members.
At present three seats are vacant in the Lok Sabha, hence the effective strength of the House is 540. In this situation, 360 votes are required for two-thirds majority. The total number of members in Rajya Sabha is 245, where 164 votes are required for two-thirds majority.
What is the full mathematics of the current number in the Lok Sabha?
The biggest change has come in TMC since the defeat of the bill. Let us understand through numbers where NDA stands and how far it has to go:
- Basic premise of NDA: At present NDA has 293 MPs. This includes 240 MPs from BJP, 16 from TDP, 12 from JDU and other allies.
- TMC rebellion: Trinamool Congress MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar has claimed that about 20 of the party’s 29 MPs are with her and all of them together have requested to make arrangements for the Lok Sabha Speaker to sit separately. If these 20 TMC MPs support NDA, then NDA’s tally will increase from 293 to 313.
- DMK’s position: DMK has left the INDIA alliance, but 22 MPs are not ready to support the delimitation bill. The party says it opposes the bill in its current form ‘in principle’ and will continue to fight for the rights of the states.
- No support for Shiv Sena (UBT): There was speculation in some media reports that 6 out of 9 MPs of Shiv Sena (UBT) may break away. But the reality is that the support of Shiv Sena (UBT) is not visible far and wide.
- Short of just 12 votes: If we add to the rebel TMC MPs (313) the additional 5 MPs who supported the NDA in April, then the figure reaches 318. In this way the government can reach approximately 348 MPs. That means NDA is still about 12 votes away from the figure of 360.
Are the numbers being fulfilled in Rajya Sabha?
NDA currently has 149 MPs in Rajya Sabha. Here the two-thirds majority figure is 164. Elections are to be held on 25 Rajya Sabha seats in 10 states on June 18, 2026. The number of NDA MPs is expected to increase after the election results. However, in Rajya Sabha also, NDA will need more than 15 seats to get absolute majority.
Will Modi government be able to pass the bill?
This is the biggest question. The answer depends on how many TMC MPs support the government. Whether DMK gives issue-based support or not and how many seats does NDA get in Rajya Sabha elections.
Even if the government gets the full support of 20 TMC and 22 DMK MPs, it will still need 12-19 extra votes to reach 360. These votes may come from some independent MPs. However, all this is not completely certain and these MPs may also be accused of ‘horse trading’.
Why is this path not so easy?
This path of NDA is full of thorns and there are many big challenges ahead, which cannot be ignored…
First challenge- No official support from rebel TMC MPs yet
At present, the rebel TMC MPs have only requested for separate seating arrangements. Although there is speculation that these MPs may give ‘unconditional support’, they have not yet formally announced their support to the government.
Second challenge- Strong opposition from DMK and southern states
DMK has made it clear that it opposes the Delimitation Bill in its current form ‘in principle’. The party says that it will not compromise at any cost to protect the interests of the southern states. The government hopes that perhaps DMK can be persuaded by making some changes in the bill. However, southern states like Kerala, Telangana and Karnataka are openly opposing this bill. Their concern is that delimitation on the basis of population will reduce their seats, because they have been successful in controlling population.
Third challenge- Shiv Sena (UBT) not opening any front.
Apart from a few media reports, there is no indication of Shiv Sena (UBT) breaking away or supporting the NDA. Despite speculations, the party is maintaining distance from the government and getting its support seems difficult.
Fourth Challenge- Separate path of ‘ONOE’ and regional parties
Many regional parties have different opinions from the government on issues like ‘one country, one election’ and ‘delimitation’. Apart from DMK, other parties are also against the bill. Even after the Rajya Sabha elections, NDA will need about 15 more seats to get absolute majority. The path to getting these seats is not easy.
The numbers game is not over yet
The new political equations have increased the expectations for NDA, but the reality is that despite getting support, BJP will still be about 12 votes away from its target. NDA can get a big benefit from the rebellion in TMC, yet it is very difficult to pass the bill. However, opposition from DMK and other parties has made this difficult for the government. In the coming days, change in the attitude of rebel TMC MPs and stubborn attitude of DMK will play the most important role. Only then will we know whether Modi government is able to win this numbers game or not.
According to government sources, as soon as the NDA is likely to have the required majority in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, the government can call a special session even before the monsoon session. The monsoon session is likely to begin from the second week of July, but if the numbers are met, the government will not shy away from calling a separate session for it.