Crude oil: Benchmark Brent crude has slipped below $ 83 per barrel due to the news of peace agreement regarding ceasefire between America and Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, American WTI crude is also trading around $81.

According to Bloomberg report, meanwhile, two global brokerage firms Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have reduced their estimate of crude oil prices to $ 80 per barrel. The interim peace agreement between America and Iran is going to be signed in Switzerland next Friday (June 19). Meanwhile, after the movement of ships through Hormuz started, both these big financial institutions have released their reports regarding the prices of crude oil.

Now that a peace agreement is going to be signed between the two, the global supply of gas and oil through Hormuz will become normal again. If the long-standing blockade imposed by both America and Iran is also lifted, then the uncertainty created regarding energy supply across the world will also come to an end. Due to this, these banks have made huge cuts in their old estimates.

What is the stance of Goldman Sachs?

Goldman Sachs has reduced its estimate of Brent crude for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2026 from the earlier $ 90 per barrel to $ 80 per barrel. Along with this, it has also reduced its average estimate for 2027 from $ 80 per barrel to $ 75 per barrel.

What did Morgan Stanley say?

Morgan Stanley has also in its report reduced its estimate of branded crude for the fourth quarter (Q4) by $ 15 directly to $ 80 per barrel, which was earlier $ 95 per barrel amid the situation of war and uncertainty. Its estimate for the third quarter (Q3) has been reduced by $ 10 from $ 100 per barrel to $ 90 per barrel.

Why is this estimate important for India?

India imports more than 85% of its crude oil requirement from abroad. In such a situation, if crude oil falls to $ 80 per barrel, then India’s import bill will reduce. India largely spends dollars from its foreign reserves to pay for the crude oil purchased from abroad. Due to this, pressure on the rupee increases, inflation starts skyrocketing and current account deficit also starts increasing.

As a result of the increase in the price of crude oil in the last few days, the prices of petrol and diesel in the country have increased by about Rs 7.50 so far. Due to this, expenditure on logistics and transportation has increased and production cost has increased. As a result, prices of many things have increased.

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India’s Growth Rate: S&P Global Ratings has increased India’s GDP growth forecast for the upcoming financial year 2026-27 to 7.1 percent. According to the agency, private consumption, investment and exports will be the main drivers of this growth. However, due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, the increase in energy prices may put pressure on the financial situation.

In its latest Asia-Pacific economic report, the agency said rising geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties could impact India through commodity prices, trade and capital flows. If crude oil prices remain high, fuel could become expensive, although the full impact is unlikely to reach consumers.

Estimate of 7.1 percent growth

The agency estimates that real GDP growth will be 7.1 percent in the financial year ending March 31, 2027, while it may be 7.6 percent in 2025-26. Strong private consumption, improvement in investment and strength in exports will be the main reasons for this. S&P has raised growth estimates for 2025-26 by 0.4 percentage points and for 2026-27 by 0.2 percentage points.

Regarding inflation, the agency estimates that it may increase to 4.3 percent in the financial year 2026-27. Higher crude oil prices are likely to widen the trade deficit, although exports of services may help keep the current account deficit under control.

On the policy front, the Reserve Bank of India has been said to keep interest rates stable for the time being and will maintain a ‘neutral’ stance. However, if oil prices rise too much, the central bank may have to take strict measures.

domestic demand weak

The report also says that the crisis in West Asia will affect the economies of the Asia-Pacific region, because these countries are dependent on energy imports. High energy prices reduce people’s purchasing power and weaken domestic demand. The subsidy burden may also increase in countries like India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia and Thailand.

According to the agency’s base case, the price of Brent crude may average $ 92 per barrel in the April-June quarter and around $ 80 per barrel in 2026. However, if supply is disrupted and the crisis deepens, the price could rise to $185 per barrel in the June quarter and $130 in 2026. In such a situation, if inflation increases, RBI can increase the interest rate by 0.25 percent in the second half of the year.

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America has praised India’s role amid the sanctions imposed on Russian oil. US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said that India has behaved responsibly in the matter of Russian oil. He described India as a very good partner and indicated that the US may consider relaxing some more restrictions on Russian oil to keep the global oil market stable.

Scott Besant said during a conversation in a program that America has allowed India to buy Russian oil, which was already en route by sea. He said that America had earlier asked India to stop purchasing banned Russian oil by the end of this year and India also complied with this request.

America gave permission to buy oil

Scott Besant said that India had planned to buy American oil instead of Russian oil, but to avoid a sudden reduction in the oil supply in the world, America gave India temporary permission to take the Russian oil already present on the ships. He said that the purpose of this step was to prevent the shortage of oil in the global market. This decision has come at a time when due to tensions related to Iran, pressure on oil prices has increased in the world and there is a possibility of supply being affected in the Middle East. There has been increased concern especially about the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, because a large part of the world’s oil passes through this route.

What did Scott Besant indicate?

Scott Besant also pointed out that if needed, the US could consider lifting some restrictions on additional Russian oil to bring more oil into the market. He said that this step can be taken to keep the global supply balanced. Meanwhile, according to the report of news agency Reuters, the prices of heavy crude oil from the American Gulf Coast have increased. Due to the conflict related to Iran and supply disruption in the Middle East, many buyers are now turning to American oil.