A big upheaval seems to be taking place in the politics of Kerala. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) seems to be heading towards a landslide victory in the assembly elections. According to the latest survey of Poll Mantra Intelligence Report, UDF can get 88-92 seats in the 140-member assembly, that is, it can comfortably cross the majority mark of 70.

This is not just a prediction of victory, but a clear indication of change of power.
According to the Poll Mantra Intelligence report, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to be reduced to 42-46 seats. The report says that this decline is visible even in its traditional strongholds. At the same time, the position of NDA is looking weaker, which is expected to get only 0-2 seats.

The survey claims that this could be a “one-sided election result”, which is not a game of scattered votes but the result of “voter shift”. It is clear that this time the election winds have changed and the biggest reason for this is said to be anti-incumbency.

The 10 year old left government will fall!
According to the survey of Poll Mantra Intelligence Report, if we understand the mood of the voters then the picture becomes more clear. “Desire for change” has emerged as the biggest factor with 22.8%. This is followed by welfare schemes (17.6%), ideology (16.2%) and leadership (14.6%). This means that the public is now not just looking for schemes, but is looking for change and better leadership.

The vote percentage figures also strengthen this story. UDF seems to be getting a lead of more than 8% with 41.5% vote share, while LDF is at 33.4%. NDA is expected to get 17.2% votes and others are expected to get 2.3% votes. Only 5.6% of voters are still undecided—pointing to a stable and clear public opinion.

Who will become the Chief Minister?
Talking about Chief Minister faces, VD Satheesan is ahead with 21.3%, while the current Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is at 18.5%. Ramesh Chennithala (17.2%) and KC Venugopal (15.1%) are also in the race. The real issues in this election are also clear. Inflation and cost of living is the biggest issue with 24.5%. Employment and youth migration is at 20.2%. That means about 45% voters are directly affected by economic pressure. Corruption, health services and law and order also remain important issues.

If we look at it regionally, UDF is leading in every area. Out of 60 seats in Malabar, UDF may get 41-43 seats, while LDF may get limited to 15-17. Out of 41 seats in Central Kerala, UDF is expected to get 25-26 seats and LDF is expected to get 12-13 seats. The contest is a bit tough in Travancore, but here also UDF is ahead with 22-23 seats.

The Election Commission on Sunday (15 March) announced the dates for the assembly elections of West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry. This year, voting is to be held on 824 assembly seats in five states. This time elections will be held in Bengal in only two phases instead of eight. Whereas elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will end in a single phase. Just after the announcement of the elections, an opinion poll also came. According to this, Bharatiya Janata Party can get a strong lead in Bengal. Similarly, the mood of the people of all the states has been gauged.

With the announcement of the dates of assembly elections, the opinion poll of IANS-Materize has come out, in which the opinion of the people of both the states has been taken regarding whose government will be formed in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Regional parties continue to dominate both the southern states, but new contenders seem to be challenging their supremacy. TVK led by actor-turned-politician Vijay seems to be attracting a large section of voters, while the BJP-led NDA in Kerala is expected to get double digit votes. However, this is not expected to have any significant impact on the election results.

How many seats can Vijay’s party get in Tamil Nadu?

According to the opinion poll, the AIADMK alliance seems to be getting the lead in Tamil Nadu and may get 114 to 127 seats, while the DMK alliance is expected to get 104 to 114 seats. Actor Vijay’s party TVK may get 6 to 12 seats. In vote share, AIADMK is expected to get around 39-40 percent votes and DMK is expected to get 37-38 percent votes.

Who can form the government in Kerala?

There is a tough contest between LDF and UDF in Kerala, but LDF seems to be getting a slight lead. According to the survey, LDF may get 61 to 71 seats and UDF may get 58 to 69 seats. The BJP led NDA is expected to get around 12-13 percent votes, but may get only around two seats.

BJP may get a strong lead in Bengal

Voting for 294 assembly seats of West Bengal will be held in two phases on 23rd and 29th April, while the results will be declared on 4th May. According to opinion polls, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC can return to power in the state for the fourth consecutive time. In the survey, TMC is expected to get 155 to 170 seats and 43-45 percent vote share, while BJP may get 100 to 115 seats and 41-43 percent vote share. Other parties are expected to get 5 to 7 seats and 13-15 percent votes.

Will BJP get an edge in Assam or will Congress become stronger?

According to the opinion poll, the BJP alliance seems to be getting a clear lead in Assam and it is expected to get 96 to 98 seats. Whereas Congress alliance can get 26 to 28 seats and others can get 2 to 8 seats. In vote share, NDA is estimated to get 43-44 percent, Congress alliance 39-40 percent and others 18-20 percent.

Also read: BJP released its first list for Kerala elections, fielded Rajeev Chandrashekhar and V Muraleedharan from this seat.