The Middle East has dictated the direction of the global oil market for decades. Wars, sanctions, OPEC decisions and geopolitical tensions have been affecting crude oil prices. After the Ukraine war, Russia also emerged as a big player in the energy market. But the recent oil crisis arising from the Iran war has revealed a new truth. This time the biggest impact on the oil market came from a country which was not present at any of the negotiating tables. That country is China.

China becomes the most influential player in Iran crisis
While America and Iran are working towards an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and normalize oil supply, analysts believe that China can now decide the direction of the next phase of the oil market. According to experts, China is not only becoming the world’s largest oil buyer but also the largest country controlling energy consumption.

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China had accumulated huge oil reserves before the crisis
China had been increasing its reserves for many years by purchasing oil from Russia and Iran at discounted rates. It is estimated that China has more than one billion barrels of crude oil in strategic and commercial reserves. When global supply was affected, China did not need to make additional purchases in the market. Instead, Chinese refineries met the need by extracting oil from their reserves.

China reduced imports, market got relief
According to analysts, during the crisis, China reduced crude oil imports by about 3 million barrels per day. This quantity is so large that it can affect the global oil balance. Energy experts say that China only purchased less and used its reserves when needed. At the same time as the world was facing a supply crisis, China’s demand decreased, which helped prevent a larger rise in oil prices.

Electric vehicles also reduced oil demand
China’s influence is not limited to oil reserves only. Electric vehicles are being promoted rapidly in the country. Nearly half of new passenger cars sold in China today are electric or hybrid. According to International Energy Agency estimates, China’s electric vehicle fleet reduced demand for oil by about 1 million barrels per day last year. Apart from this, China also limited fuel export quotas and refineries reduced processing rates, which reduced the need to buy additional oil.

China’s strategy became the ‘invisible force’ of the market
Analysts believe that during the crisis, China adopted a strategy of retreat instead of aggressively competing for scarce oil. This brought relief to the global market on the demand front. Many countries including India also benefited from this because the pressure on oil prices reduced.

China may soon become the biggest buyer again
However, this situation will not last long. The oil reserves that have been used up during the crisis will have to be replenished in the future. Experts say that if oil prices fall further, China may return to the market as a big buyer. It will be necessary to refill the oil reserves that were used during the crisis.

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The entire oil equation may change in 2027
If Hormuz opens completely and production in the Middle East returns to normal, supply in the oil market may increase. The International Energy Agency has already warned that by 2027, concerns about excess supply may arise instead of concerns about shortage in the oil market. The supply will increase when additional oil comes into the market from Gulf countries and Iran. But how much impact this additional oil will have will largely depend on China’s purchases.

If China starts filling its reserves on a large scale, the excess oil can be easily consumed. If China does not do this, there may be continuous pressure on oil prices.

What does it mean for India?
This situation has brought both relief and learning for India. Relatively soft crude oil prices have helped keep import costs under control. Analysts believe that one reason for this was reduced purchases by China. However, experts suggest that India should further strengthen its energy security and strategic oil reserves. He believes that countries with reserves of several months instead of a few weeks can play a more influential role in the global market.

UAE’s exit from OPEC: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Tuesday (April 28) has announced to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Due to this, crude oil prices in the global oil market have reached their highest level in 3 weeks.

This step will be effective from May 1. UAE has taken this decision at a time when there is already an atmosphere of instability in the global oil markets due to the war between America and Iran.

How much have oil prices increased?

Today WTI crude has reached an intraday high of $ 100.36 per barrel. At the same time, Brent crude prices have also increased by more than 1.25 percent to reach $ 104.95 per barrel.

America benefits from UAE’s decision

The supply chain is already badly affected by the war in Iran and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, due to which oil prices have also increased in the past. Now this decision to leave OPEC is likely to increase further pressure on prices.

After Qatar and Angola, UAE’s exit from OPEC shows that now the big oil producing countries want to set their own production limits so that prices can be more stable in future.

Here, experts believe that this decision of UAE will give unexpected geopolitical benefit to US President Donald Trump. America has long considered OPEC a ‘cartel’, which increases oil prices as per its own. The exit of big producing countries like UAE will weaken the organization’s hold on the market, which will strengthen America’s position in reshaping the global oil market.

Will Trump’s policy be strong?

Since, due to tension in Iran, there has been interruption in the supply of oil from Gulf countries. In such a situation, countries around the world are turning to American shale companies to meet their needs. American exporters are benefiting from this.

Here, UAE has good relations with America. In such a situation, it is possible that by leaving OPEC, UAE will come closer to America’s strategies instead of Saudi Arabia. This is in accordance with Trump’s energy policy because Trump wants OPEC’s monopoly in global energy markets to end.

What is OPEC?

OPEC is a powerful grouping of the world’s major oil producing countries, which was established in Baghdad in 1960. Its job is to control the prices of crude oil in the global market and manage the supply. OPEC ensures that oil producing countries get the right price for their oil. Its headquarters is in Vienna, Austria. After UAE, now OPEC mainly includes countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Venezuela.

Impact of UAE’s decision on India?

This situation is no less than a challenge for India, which is heavily dependent on oil imports. The decision of UAE to withdraw from both OPEC and OPEC+ from May 1, 2026 has caused an upheaval in the global oil market. Due to this the prices have also crossed 100 dollars. Now it is obvious that imports will be expensive, which will increase the prices of petrol, diesel and LPG in the country, due to which the prices of many essential commodities will also increase.

If oil prices increase, the government may also have to give subsidy or reduce excise duty. This will increase the burden on the government treasury, which may lead to reduction in expenditure for other development works.

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Tuesday (April 28) has announced its separation from OPEC and OPEC+, the organization of countries producing and exporting crude oil. This decision has come at a time when the energy crisis is deepening across the world due to the ongoing war with Iran. This step of UAE, which has been a part of OPEC for a long time, can have a big impact on the unity of this group led by Saudi Arabia. Now the question is what effect will this have on OPEC, will it disintegrate and how will India benefit? You will know in the explainer…

Question 1: What is OPEC and what is its function?
answer: The full name of OPEC is Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. It was established on 14 September 1960 in Baghdad. Its initial five founding members were Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. UAE joined OPEC in 1967.

The main objective of OPEC is to coordinate and integrate the petroleum policies of its member countries so that oil producers get better and stable prices, consumer countries get efficient and regular oil supplies and investors in the industry get fair returns.

Currently OPEC has 12 member countries, which include Algeria, Congo, Nigeria, Libya, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea apart from the 5 founding countries and UAE. This organization controls about 30% of the world’s total oil production. OPEC+ was formed from 2016, in which non-OPEC countries like Russia, Kazakhstan etc. also joined, due to which the total production reached about 40-41% of the world. OPEC is often called a cartel because it sets production quotas to control oil prices. When prices fall, production reduces and when needed, it increases.

Question 2: Why did UAE leave OPEC?
answer: On 28 April 2026, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) formally announced that it was leaving both OPEC and OPEC+ with effect from 1 May 2026. UAE said that this decision has been taken keeping in mind its ‘national interests’ and ‘long-term strategic and economic vision. The UAE now wants to focus on increasing its domestic energy production capacity and playing a more independent role in the global energy market.

This decision has come amid the Iran war, in which the Strait of Hormuz (the route through which about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG passes) is affected. Diplomatic Advisor to the UAE President Anwar Mohammad Gargash said that the stance of Arab and Gulf countries (GCC) remained very weak during Iran’s attacks. He did talk about logistical help, but expressed disappointment at the lack of support at the political and military levels. This step is a big blow to Saudi Arabia led OPEC. UAE was an important and disciplined member of OPEC.

Question 3: Is OPEC disintegrating, if yes then how big is it?
answer: UAE’s departure is definitely a big blow for OPEC, but complete disintegration cannot be said yet. UAE was OPEC’s third or fourth largest producer. Due to this, OPEC’s production capacity may decrease by about 15%.

In the past years too, many members have come and gone, such as Indonesia, Qatar, Ecuador, Angola etc. left or suspended membership. But the departure of a strong and compliant member like UAE has a different meaning.

Experts say that this weakens the unity of OPEC and raises questions on the leadership ability of Saudi Arabia. If other Gulf countries like UAE also follow the same path, then the influence of OPEC may further reduce in future. Right now this is the departure of one member, but amidst the Iran war and geopolitical tensions, it is a worrying sign for the organization.

Question 4: Who will be harmed by this disintegration?
answer: This scarcity will cause 4 major losses:

• Loss of OPEC and especially Saudi Arabia: The power to set production quotas and control prices will be reduced. Saudi Arabia, which is the de-facto leader of OPEC, may have to bear more of the burden alone.
• Oil exporting countries: If OPEC weakens, oil prices may become more volatile, which will affect their income.
• Advantages and disadvantages of oil consumers around the world: UAE can now produce more oil, free from quotas, which is likely to increase supply and lower prices. Due to Iran war, currently Brent crude is above $111 per barrel. UAE’s exit may stabilize or bring down prices in the long run. Big importing countries like India (which import more than 80% of oil) may get relief.
• For the Trump Administration: Many reports are calling it a diplomatic victory for US President Donald Trump. Trump has long been accusing OPEC of looting the world by deliberately increasing oil prices. UAE’s departure weakens OPEC and could increase America’s influence in the energy market.

Question 5: Then what can happen next in this case?
answer: UAE’s departure will not have an immediate impact on oil supplies as the Strait of Hormuz is still affected, but in the long run it will challenge the unity of OPEC+. If prices fall, the budget deficit of Saudi Arabia and other members could increase.

Experts are saying that this step is a sign of UAE moving towards its own energy diversification and independent policy. Uncertainty has increased in the world oil market. On one side there is Iran war, on the other side there is weakening of organizations like OPEC.

Amidst the ongoing conflict between America and Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+, the organization of oil producing countries. The UAE said that considering the economic outlook and the changing energy scenario, it decided to withdraw from this alliance after 60 years. OPEC is an alliance (cartel) of major oil-producing countries that coordinates production policies to influence global oil supply and prices.

UAE out of OPEC

UAE said in a statement that it is also withdrawing from OPEC+. Russia is also included in OPEC+. This step is being considered a big blow for OPEC and its key member Saudi Arabia. This group collectively produces about 36% of the world’s oil and controls about 80% of oil reserves globally.

The UAE has long been demanding higher production quotas within OPEC, as it wanted to expand its production capacity beyond the limits set by the cartel. OPEC was founded in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Kuwait. UAE joined it after 7 years. The UAE is among the world’s top 10 largest oil producers and contributes about 3% to 4% of global oil production.

OPEC will be affected due to UAE’s exit

Experts believe that due to UAE’s exit, OPEC has lost about 15 percent of its production capacity and has also lost one of its most disciplined (rules following) members. According to the latest OPEC data, the UAE produces about 2.9 million barrels of oil every year. At the same time, the production of Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, is about 9 million barrels of oil.

It will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to keep the remaining OPEC members united and it will have to bear most of the burden of internal compliance and market management alone. Other members of OPEC can also follow the same path. This situation reflects a fundamental geopolitical reshaping in West Asia and global oil markets. Now this alliance includes countries like Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Congo.

What impact will UAE’s decision have on India?

With UAE’s exit from OPEC, questions are also being raised that what effect will it have on the world and India? First, due to the situation on Hormuz due to the Middle East war and now due to this decision of UAE, there are fluctuations in the prices of crude oil. However, it is too early to say whether this will be a relief for countries like India. If UAE increases oil production then the price of oil will reduce.

India-UAE relations have evolved into a major strategic partnership over the last few years. UAE has emerged as India’s third largest trading partner and a major source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

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There has been turmoil all over the world since America’s war on Iran on 28 February 2026. In this, America is suffering more losses than Iran. The world order has been shaken by competing with the world’s most powerful country, a country with a non-nuclear power. Experts believe that now America’s unipolar image is breaking and all countries are moving towards multipolarity. So will Russia replace America and how will a multipolar world order be created? Understand in explainer…

Question 1: How is the US-Iran war changing the world order?
answer: Before the war between America and Iran started, it was being predicted that if such a war happened, the balance of power in the world would change forever. This is what is happening now. Iran attacked 27 American military bases, in which at least 17 were badly destroyed. Advanced missile defense systems like THAAD were damaged. American aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford had to retreat. Iran separated from the dollar and started trading in yuan. The world’s energy supply was affected by 20% due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

outcome? Many countries are not fully trusting America for their security, that is, now America’s unipolar image has been broken.

Question 2: Why is Russia’s name rising in the US-Iran war?
answer: Russia is already a big energy player despite the Ukraine war. On April 5, 2026, in the Hormuz crisis, Russia and Saudi Arabia decided in the OPEC+ meeting that both will contribute more than 60% in increasing oil production from May 2026. Russia is calling Saudi and other Gulf countries as ‘good friends’. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia wants to strengthen relations with the Gulf countries. Russia is helping to create a balance against America in the Iran war. Russia-India-China coordination is increasing on forums like BRICS and SCO. Because of Russia, a multipolar world is rapidly taking shape, where America will not walk alone.

Question 3: What are India and Saudi Arabia discussing with Russia?
answer: India is talking about increasing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports from Russia due to the Hormuz crisis. Earlier the share of Russian oil in India was 39%, now with the closure of Hormuz, Russia has again become an important source.

Saudi Arabia is also deciding to produce oil together with Russia in OPEC+. Both countries are looking to Russia for energy security. Russia-India partnership is strong in defence, energy and diplomacy. Saudi Arabia is also creating a balance by leaning towards Russia to reduce its dependence on America.

Question 4: What was the meeting of 60 countries and what was its purpose?
answer: On 2-3 April 2026, a virtual meeting of more than 60 countries was held under the leadership of Britain. India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Mishri was included in this. France, Germany, Italy, Canada and UAE also participated. The purpose of the meeting was to prepare ‘Plan B’ for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

In this meeting, emphasis was laid on ‘secure and continuously open Hormuz’. India stressed on ‘unimpeded navigation’. Experts believe that this meeting clearly shows that countries no longer want to rely on America alone. If America withdrew, then ways were found to restore shipping through diplomatic and economic means without American help.

Question 5: How is this change affecting the old world order?
answer: The old world order is breaking down. Iran showed that even a small country can challenge a superpower. Countries like Russia, China and India are creating a new balance through BRICS+ and SCO. Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia are now doing ‘multi-alignment’. Same with America, also with Russia-China.

According to the report of Muslim Mirror, this is an economic war, where questions are being raised on the strength of the dollar. The world is now moving towards ‘regional spheres of influence’, but middle powers like India are maintaining a balance in between.

India imports 80-85% of LPG from the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic LPG was kept safe during the crisis, but the commercial sector is under pressure. Delhi increased the daily allocation of 4500 cylinders on 26 March. Relief is being provided by increasing oil and LNG from Russia. India played an active role in the meeting of 60 countries. PM Modi said in Lok Sabha that imports from 41 countries are being diversified for energy security. The old friendship between Russia and India is now becoming stronger.

Question 6: So will the world order change from unipolar to multilateral?
answer: Foreign affairs expert and retired JNU professor A. Of. Pasha says, ‘The impact of the war will remain for 10-12 months after the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Talks between Russia, India and Saudi Arabia will continue. Efforts like the meeting of 60 countries will increase, that is, the world has now moved towards multipolarity to a great extent. Trump has a big role in America losing the title of Unipolar. They played games ranging from promises to stop many wars to tariffs. The entire country suffered loss in this. Now it is clear that no one country will do.

A. Of. Pasha believes that in such a situation, India will have to increase energy partnership with Russia, and will also have to negotiate with Saudi Arabia and UAE for energy. This crisis is not just about oil, it is the birth of a new world order. Russia is becoming important again. India needs to strike a balance in a smart way.

February 1974… Peggy Galgano, an 18-year-old nursing student in the small town of Pleasantville near New York, had to return to college. She came to Pleasantville because of her mother’s ill health, but due to the 1973 oil crisis, there was a shortage of oil and gas in America. She took the car and set out in search of a gas station, but was unsuccessful. Peggy told the New York Times that stations used to turn off the pumps as soon as they saw a queue of trains. After 53 years, the same situation has returned all over the world, this time also the reason is Israel and America… oil and gas shutdown. Rising inflation and echo of explosions in war. Is this time the oil crisis bigger than the 1973 crisis? What happened 53 years ago? Let us understand in the explainer…

Question 1: What exactly was the 1973 oil crisis and why did it start?

answer: It was the year 1973, when the Oil Exporting Organization of Arab Countries (OPEC) had imposed a complete oil embargo on America and its allied countries. The reason was the Yom Kippur War. In this war, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel to regain the areas lost in the Six-Day War of 1967. At that time, America gave emergency aid of 2.2 billion dollars to Israel, due to which the Arab countries got angry and stopped the supply of oil.

In the 1970s, the Middle East produced 50% of the world’s oil. OPEC reduced production by 5% every month and banned America, Netherlands, Portugal and South Africa. outcome? Global supply decreased by 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd), i.e. about 7% of the total supply at that time.

Question 2: How much did oil prices increase in 1973 and what was the impact on the world?

answer: In 1973, oil prices had increased four times in a few months. In America, one barrel went from $3 to $12, which is around $80 today. Petrol stations dried up. Fuel rationing was imposed in America, speed limits were reduced and daylight saving time was kept throughout the year.

Europe and Japan were also badly affected by the oil crisis. Three-day work week started in Britain, driving on Sunday was banned in Europe. Inflation increased, industrial production fell and many countries fell into the grip of stagflation i.e. inflation and recession. There was recession in America and Britain from 1973-75.

At that time there was no direct ban on India, but the impact was very deep. India’s oil import bill was 414 million dollars in 1973, which increased to 1,350 million dollars in 1974, i.e. three times. A four-fold increase in prices created a storm of inflation; railway workers organized the biggest strike of two million workers in May 1974.

The government sought help from the World Bank and IMF, but there were conditions. All this created a hostile environment. Jayaprakash Narayan’s movement set Bihar on fire and finally on June 25, 1975, Indira Gandhi’s government imposed emergency in the country.

Question 3: What is today’s global oil crisis in 2026 and is it different from 1973?

answer: In March 2026, America-Israel started war on Iran. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes. As a result, the supply of 20 million barrels of oil daily was stopped.

There was a shortage of 4.5 million barrels in 1973, today there is 20 million less, that is, four times more supply shock. The price of Brent crude crossed $66 to $100 per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA), formed after the 1973 oil crisis, has said that this is ‘the biggest energy security threat in history’.

IEA has asked its 32 member countries to withdraw 400 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve, but experts say that if the war continues for a long time, gas, diesel and jet fuel will all become expensive.

Question 4: Why does today’s crisis seem more dangerous than that of 1973?

answer: The supply shock today is bigger than in 1973. Kiel Institute economist Klaus Jürgen Gern says that in the 1970s the supply had decreased by only 5%, today it has decreased more. Shipping expert Lars Jensen says, ‘The impact could be much bigger than in the 1970s.’

Yet prices did not quadruple because:

• Today the oil market is more diversified (OPEC’s share dropped from 50% to 36%).
• America is the largest oil producer today and added 90% of new oil to the global supply in the last decade.
• The world has a record reserve of 8.2 billion barrels.
• The market expects the war to end in a few weeks.

In 1973 no one knew when the ban would be lifted, so prices remained high for a long time.

Question 5: What impact can the crisis of 2026 have on India and Asia?

answer: India is still a heavy oil importer. Like 1973, the import bill will increase and inflation will occur. The countries of Asia, which import oil, will be most affected, but there will be no political upheaval like in 1973 because today there are reserves, energy efficiency is high and some sanctions on America-Russia-Iran are being temporarily removed.

The crisis of 1973 was a deliberate policy and lasted a long time. The crisis of 2026 is the result of war. Supply shock is big, but reserves and diversification have kept prices under control for now. If the war ends quickly, there will be no long recession like 1973, but if the oil infrastructure is damaged, it could lead to global inflation, industrial slowdown and a new crisis of energy security, especially in India and Asia.

1973 taught the world how dangerous oil dependence is. The same lessons are being repeated in 2026, but now with reserves, American production and faster response mechanisms. Still, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a reminder that the Middle East is still the world’s oil pipeline.

OPEC+ Decisions on Crude Oil: There is now going to be a brake on oil purchases from Russia, which supplied cheap crude oil to India amid the Ukraine war. Due to US sanctions, Indian companies have decided to stop purchasing crude oil from two major Russian oil companies for the time being. Meanwhile, the decisions taken in the recent meeting of OPEC Plus, a group of oil producing countries, have further increased India’s concerns.

Two big decisions of OPEC Plus

According to the New York Times report, OPEC Plus countries took two important decisions in the meeting held on Sunday – daily oil production will be increased by 1.37 lakh barrels from December 2025. However, this increase is very minor compared to global demand. There will be a complete brake on production growth in the first quarter (January–March) of the year 2026. This means that there will be no increase in production during this period and the market situation will be closely monitored.

Difficulties may increase for India

OPEC Plus is an alliance of 22 major oil producing countries of the world, which has a major impact on global oil production and prices. If production remains limited, international prices of crude oil may increase. For India, which imports about 85% of its oil requirements, the import bill is set to rise. Due to this, there is a possibility of increase in both fiscal deficit and inflation. Also, due to increase in demand for dollar, pressure on rupee may also increase.

America has recently imposed new sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, due to which India has had to stop the purchase of cheap Russian crude oil. Now Indian companies are preparing to source crude oil from alternative suppliers – like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, but the prices there are relatively high.

According to experts, if OPEC Plus limits the increase in production and reduces imports from Russia, then in the coming months India may see an increase in petrol and diesel prices, increase in inflation and weakening of the rupee.

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Crude oil prices: OPEC+ is going to increase the supply of oil from the month of August. Its 8 members have agreed to increase the supply of crude oil by 548,000 barrels per day. Earlier, OPEC had announced an increase of 411,000 barrels in the supply of crude oil in May, June and July. The purpose of this decision of OPEC+ is to fulfill the increasing demand as well as reduce the prices of crude oil.

The impact of this decision of OPEC+ will be seen in markets around the world. Oil prices in India can also be reduced. India imports a large part of its oil needs and OPEC is a major supplier. Recently, countries involved in OPEC+ decided to increase their production before August.

India will benefit greatly

Experts say that sudden increase in oil production may reduce prices further. This can also provide relief in the prices of petrol, diesel and other petroleum products in India. Now it is obvious that if the prices of oil are low, then the general public of the country will get the benefit. This will affect the prices of transport and everyday things. This can also strengthen the country’s economy, because the import bill will decrease.

What is OPEC and OPEC+?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Country) is an organization of 14 countries exporting petroleum, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela, Libya, Indonesia, Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, UAE, Equatorial Gaana, Congo, Angola, Ecquore and Gabon. It was established in 1960. At the same time, OPEC+ includes non-OPEC countries like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Russia, Mexico, Oman and Sudan. It was formed in 2016.

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