BJP has continuously strengthened its hold in the country’s politics since forming the government at the Center under the leadership of Narendra Modi in 2014. During this period, the party not only achieved election victory, but also successfully executed the strategy of breaking the leaders, MLAs and MPs of other parties and joining them. This strategy is known in political circles as ‘Operation Lotus’. So let us also know how many MPs and MLAs have joined BJP in the last 12 years…

How many MLAs and MPs joined BJP in the last 12 years?

The biggest success of BJP after 2014 has been to increase its presence in the assemblies. According to the Times of India report, in 2014, BJP had a total of 1,035 MLAs across the country. This number continued to increase and by 2025 it would reach 1,654. That means the number of BJP MLAs has increased by about 600 in a decade.

BJP has made huge gains not only at the level of MLAs but also at the level of MPs. According to the report of the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), 500 MPs and MLAs defected in the elections held between 2014 and 2021. BJP benefited the most from these. According to the report, during this period, 173 MPs and MLAs left other parties and joined BJP. At the same time, only 33 MPs-MLAs separated from BJP.

According to media reports, the most discussed figure of defection between 2022 and 2026 is that of 168 MPs and MLAs. Of these, 82 percent i.e. about 138 people joined BJP. This means that the destination of more than three out of every four defector leaders was BJP.

Which party suffered the most loss?

The ADR report clearly shows that Congress had to bear the biggest brunt of the defection. Between 2014 and 2021, 177 MPs and MLAs left Congress. Apart from this, 222 candidates also left Congress. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was at second place, whose 20 MPs-MLAs and 153 candidates left the party. Samajwadi Party (SP) lost 18 MPs-MLAs, while 26 MPs-MLAs defected from Trinamool Congress (TMC).

Congress suffered the biggest blow in the period from 2022 to 2026. Media reports show that 57 percent of those who joined BJP were earlier in Congress. That means out of 138 leaders who joined BJP, about 79 had left Congress. However, this figure is only part of a report. The whole picture is even bigger. According to BJP.ORG, by 2026, the total number of BJP MLAs across the country will reach 1,654, which was 1,364 in 2019. That means, BJP gained about 290 MLAs in just 7 years, which also includes the period 2022-2026.

According to prsindia.org, let’s look at some examples of major party defections in 2022-2026:

• 2022: In Maharashtra, about 40 Shiv Sena MLAs parted ways with Eknath Shinde and formed a BJP-supported government. 8 Congress MLAs joined BJP in Goa.
• 2023: After winning the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, 10 BJP MPs resigned from their Lok Sabha seats.
• 2024: In Himachal Pradesh, 6 disqualified rebel Congress MLAs joined BJP.
• 2026: 7 Rajya Sabha MPs of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) joined BJP.

Where was ‘Operation Lotus’ conducted across the country?

The name of ‘Operation Lotus’ has been taken from BJP’s election symbol ‘Lotus’. This strategy started in Karnataka in 2008, but it intensified after 2014…

• Karnataka (2019): Congress-JDS coalition government was formed in the 2018 assembly elections. In 2019, BJP toppled the government by removing many MLAs and made BS Yediyurappa the Chief Minister.
• Madhya Pradesh (2020): Kamal Nath’s Congress government had to fall after the resignation of 22 MLAs. Most of these MLAs later joined BJP. Shivraj Singh Chauhan again took power.
• Goa (2022): Out of 11 Congress MLAs, 8 joined BJP. Due to this, Congress almost got destroyed in Goa.
• Maharashtra (2022): Eknath Shinde rebelled along with 40 Shiv Sena MLAs and formed the government with BJP. Uddhav Thackeray’s government fell.
• Maharashtra (2023): Ajit Pawar rebelled in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and joined the Shinde government.
• Himachal Pradesh (2024): BJP tried to topple Congress’s Sukhwinder Sukhu government through Operation Lotus, when 6 Congress MLAs did cross-voting in the Rajya Sabha elections.

According to media reports and opposition parties, BJP has so far toppled governments in 6 states through ‘Operation Lotus’.

The biggest question is why did the situation change after Modi?

According to experts, before 2014, BJP was also a big party, but under the leadership of Modi, its political strength increased manifold. There are 5 big reasons behind this:

• strong leadership: Narendra Modi’s popularity and focused leadership made BJP a ‘winning party’. Leaders started feeling that staying in BJP was politically safe and beneficial.
• Organizational Strength: BJP’s organization became stronger under the leadership of Amit Shah. The party created a strong network in every state and adopted an effective strategy to woo the leaders of opposition parties.
• Weakening of opposition: After the defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Congress continued to weaken. Due to leadership crisis and internal strife, many leaders left Congress. At the same time, regional parties also could not stand in front of BJP.
• Slogan of ‘Development’: The Modi government built a strong support base with slogans like ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas’ and ‘poverty alleviation’. This made the leaders feel that BJP’s policies are popular among the people.
• Legal and Administrative Pressure: The action of agencies like Enforcement Directorate (ED) and CBI against many opposition leaders also encouraged defection. Many leaders joined BJP to avoid legal cases.

Current situation: NDA’s position in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha

By mid-2026, NDA’s position has become quite strong:

• Lok Sabha: After 20 TMC MPs supported the NDA, the strength of the BJP-led NDA alliance has increased to 314. However, to pass the Constitution Amendment Bill, two-thirds majority (360 seats) is required in the Lok Sabha. NDA is 46 seats behind. NDA’s position may become stronger if DMK (22 MPs) exits the INDIA block. 6 MPs of Shiv Sena (UBT) faction have also said that they will leave the party and support NDA. That means now NDA will have 319 seats in the Lok Sabha.
• Rajya Sabha: NDA has 148 MPs. After the upcoming elections and by-elections in West Bengal, this number may reach 155. The two-thirds majority figure in Rajya Sabha is 164. For this, NDA needs the support of parties like BJD (5 MPs) and YSR Congress (7 MPs).

Recently, 7 Rajya Sabha MPs of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have also merged with BJP. This has further increased the strength of BJP in Rajya Sabha.

The period between 2022 to 2026 was very beneficial for BJP in terms of defection. Congress was the biggest losing party of this period, while parties like Shiv Sena, TMC and AAP also suffered major setbacks. Under ‘Operation Lotus’, BJP not only weakened the opposition parties but also took its numerical strength to a record level.

Delimitation Bill is no longer just a legal process. This has become one of the hottest issues of Indian politics. In April 2026, this bill was defeated by 54 votes, but now new political equations are being created. There has been rebellion in Trinamool Congress (TMC), DMK has separated from the INDIA alliance and NDA’s strength is expected to increase in Rajya Sabha. The question arises whether these changes will be able to change the numbers game so much that the Modi government can cross the magical figure of 360? Come, let’s delve into the world of numbers and understand the whole game…

What is Delimitation Bill and what is included in it?

The Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill 2026 aims to increase the number of Lok Sabha seats from the current 543 to 850 and delimit constituencies on the basis of the 2011 census. One of its major objectives is to implement 33 percent reservation for women under the Nari Shakti Vandan Act. This bill was defeated in April 2026 because apart from the opposition, many regional parties including TMC and DMK also strongly opposed it.

How many marks are required to pass?

This bill is a constitutional amendment, hence ‘special majority’ is required to pass it. Under Article 368, two conditions must be fulfilled for this:

• First condition: Majority of the total members of the House.
• Second condition: Two-thirds (2/3rd) majority of the voting members.

At present three seats are vacant in the Lok Sabha, hence the effective strength of the House is 540. In this situation, 360 votes are required for two-thirds majority. The total number of members in Rajya Sabha is 245, where 164 votes are required for two-thirds majority.

What is the full mathematics of the current number in the Lok Sabha?

The biggest change has come in TMC since the defeat of the bill. Let us understand through numbers where NDA stands and how far it has to go:

• Basic premise of NDA: At present NDA has 293 MPs. This includes 240 MPs from BJP, 16 from TDP, 12 from JDU and other allies.
• TMC rebellion: Trinamool Congress MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar has claimed that about 20 of the party’s 29 MPs are with her and all of them together have requested to make arrangements for the Lok Sabha Speaker to sit separately. If these 20 TMC MPs support NDA, then NDA’s tally will increase from 293 to 313.
• DMK’s position: DMK has left the INDIA alliance, but 22 MPs are not ready to support the delimitation bill. The party says it opposes the bill in its current form ‘in principle’ and will continue to fight for the rights of the states.
• No support for Shiv Sena (UBT): There was speculation in some media reports that 6 out of 9 MPs of Shiv Sena (UBT) may break away. But the reality is that the support of Shiv Sena (UBT) is not visible far and wide.
• Short of just 12 votes: If we add to the rebel TMC MPs (313) the additional 5 MPs who supported the NDA in April, then the figure reaches 318. In this way the government can reach approximately 348 MPs. That means NDA is still about 12 votes away from the figure of 360.

Are the numbers being fulfilled in Rajya Sabha?

NDA currently has 149 MPs in Rajya Sabha. Here the two-thirds majority figure is 164. Elections are to be held on 25 Rajya Sabha seats in 10 states on June 18, 2026. The number of NDA MPs is expected to increase after the election results. However, in Rajya Sabha also, NDA will need more than 15 seats to get absolute majority.

Will Modi government be able to pass the bill?

This is the biggest question. The answer depends on how many TMC MPs support the government. Whether DMK gives issue-based support or not and how many seats does NDA get in Rajya Sabha elections.

Even if the government gets the full support of 20 TMC and 22 DMK MPs, it will still need 12-19 extra votes to reach 360. These votes may come from some independent MPs. However, all this is not completely certain and these MPs may also be accused of ‘horse trading’.

Why is this path not so easy?

This path of NDA is full of thorns and there are many big challenges ahead, which cannot be ignored…

First challenge- No official support from rebel TMC MPs yet

At present, the rebel TMC MPs have only requested for separate seating arrangements. Although there is speculation that these MPs may give ‘unconditional support’, they have not yet formally announced their support to the government.

Second challenge- Strong opposition from DMK and southern states

DMK has made it clear that it opposes the Delimitation Bill in its current form ‘in principle’. The party says that it will not compromise at any cost to protect the interests of the southern states. The government hopes that perhaps DMK can be persuaded by making some changes in the bill. However, southern states like Kerala, Telangana and Karnataka are openly opposing this bill. Their concern is that delimitation on the basis of population will reduce their seats, because they have been successful in controlling population.

Third challenge- Shiv Sena (UBT) not opening any front.

Apart from a few media reports, there is no indication of Shiv Sena (UBT) breaking away or supporting the NDA. Despite speculations, the party is maintaining distance from the government and getting its support seems difficult.

Fourth Challenge- Separate path of ‘ONOE’ and regional parties

Many regional parties have different opinions from the government on issues like ‘one country, one election’ and ‘delimitation’. Apart from DMK, other parties are also against the bill. Even after the Rajya Sabha elections, NDA will need about 15 more seats to get absolute majority. The path to getting these seats is not easy.

The numbers game is not over yet

The new political equations have increased the expectations for NDA, but the reality is that despite getting support, BJP will still be about 12 votes away from its target. NDA can get a big benefit from the rebellion in TMC, yet it is very difficult to pass the bill. However, opposition from DMK and other parties has made this difficult for the government. In the coming days, change in the attitude of rebel TMC MPs and stubborn attitude of DMK will play the most important role. Only then will we know whether Modi government is able to win this numbers game or not.

According to government sources, as soon as the NDA is likely to have the required majority in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, the government can call a special session even before the monsoon session. The monsoon session is likely to begin from the second week of July, but if the numbers are met, the government will not shy away from calling a separate session for it.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has released the first list of its candidates for the upcoming Rajya Sabha biennial elections 2026 on Thursday (June 4, 2026) evening. In this first list, BJP has announced the names of a total of 11 candidates, in which four from Gujarat, one from Arunachal Pradesh, two from Madhya Pradesh, one from Manipur and two from Rajasthan. Whereas the name of a candidate from Odisha has been announced for the Rajya Sabha by-election 2026. However, at present BJP has not included the names of its two Union Ministers Ravneet Singh Bittu and George Kurien in this list.

Both the leaders will not remain in the Union Council of Ministers

The Rajya Sabha tenure of Ravneet Singh Bittu, who holds the post of Minister of State for Railways in the Government of India, and George Kurien, Minister of State for Fisheries, Animal Husbandry, Dairy Production and Minority Affairs, is ending this month on June 21, 2026. This means that both the leaders will no longer be in the Union Council of Ministers. Amidst the apprehension of change in the Union Council of Ministers, Union Minister of State for Railways Ravneet Singh Bittu had recently said that he is packing his bags and going to Punjab and will participate in the assembly elections to be held in Punjab next year.

At the same time, Union Minister of State for Fisheries, Animal Husbandry, Dairy Production and Minority Affairs, George Kurien is a prominent leader of Kerala BJP, who was included in the Union Council of Ministers by giving him Rajya Sabha ticket in view of the state elections. Now in his place, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) General Secretary Tarun Chugh has been given Rajya Sabha ticket from Madhya Pradesh.

Which leaders were given a chance by BJP for Rajya Sabha?

The Central Election Committee of the Bharatiya Janata Party has given its approval to the following names for the biennial elections of Rajya Sabha to be held in various states and the by-elections of Odisha in 2026. pic.twitter.com/SNA6aMsDlC

— BJP (@BJP4India) June 4, 2026

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has nominated Tai Tagak from Arunachal Pradesh for the upcoming biennial elections 2026. Whereas, Raju Bhai Shukla, Mukesh Bhai Rathwa, Mansingh Parmar and Jitendra Meghjibhai Kanjariya have been declared candidates from Gujarat. While Tarun Chugh and Rajneesh Aggarwal from Madhya Pradesh, A. from Manipur. Dr. Satish Poonia has been made the candidate along with Sharda Devi and Dr. Alka Gurjar from Rajasthan. Along with this, BJP has announced the name of Debashish Samantrai for the by-election on the Rajya Sabha seat of Odisha.

Also read: BJP announced candidates for Rajya Sabha elections, know who got the chance including Satish Poonia

Bharatiya Janata Party has announced 2 candidates in the Rajya Sabha elections for three seats in Madhya Pradesh. BJP has made Tarun Chugh and Rajneesh Aggarwal its candidates.

Rajya Sabha elections are to be held on three seats in the state. BJP has announced on 2. In such a situation, it is believed that the Indian National Congress candidate can win the election on one seat.

However, if BJP fields a third candidate then election on the third seat is certain.

MP News: Politics heated up over the decision to change the name of BU in Bhopal, Executive Council sent a new proposal

Who is Tarun Chugh?

Tarun Chugh is the National General Secretary of Bharatiya Janata Party. Tarun Chugh, who hails from Amritsar district of Punjab, has obtained MBA degree in HR (Human Resources). He started his political career with Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Whereas Rajneesh Aggarwal MP is the state minister in BJP.

Let us tell you that the tenure of the three Rajya Sabha seats from Madhya Pradesh whose tenure is ending on June 21, 2026, includes George Kurien and Sumer Singh Solanki of BJP and Digvijay Singh of Congress. Elections for these seats will be held in June, in which the elected MLAs of the state assembly will vote.

What is the mathematics of numerical strength in the assembly in Madhya Pradesh?

Looking at the current numerical strength in the Assembly, BJP seems to be in a strong position on two seats, while Congress is trying to retain its only seat. At present, BJP has 164 MLAs and Congress 64 in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly. In such a situation, the result of Rajya Sabha elections will largely depend on the support of the MLAs and the strategy of both the parties.

The last date for filing nominations for Rajya Sabha elections is June 8. The nomination papers will be scrutinized on June 9. The last date for withdrawal of candidature is June 11. Counting of votes will be done only after the end of voting on June 18.

Bharatiya Janata Party has announced candidates for four Rajya Sabha seats of Gujarat. It has become clear from the BJP list that it will contest elections on all four seats. In such a situation, the Indian National Congress, possibly for the first time after the formation of the state, will become void in Gujarat in terms of Rajya Sabha.

BJP has nominated Rajubhai Shukla, Mukeshbhai Rathwa, Mansingh Parmar and Jitendra Meghjibhai Kanjariya for the Rajya Sabha elections for four seats.

For the first time in 74 years, Congress will become 0! There will not be a single Rajya Sabha MP from this state

Bharatiya Janata Party said in a press release that the Central Election Committee has approved the names for the biennial elections of Rajya Sabha.

The last date for filing nominations for Rajya Sabha elections has been fixed as June 8. Scrutiny of nomination papers will take place on June 9, while candidates will be able to withdraw their names till June 11. Voting will be held on June 18 and counting of votes will also be done immediately after the end of voting on the same day.

What is the numerical strength of Gujarat Assembly?

There are a total of 182 seats in the Gujarat Assembly, out of which one seat is vacant; At present there are 181 members. In terms of numbers, BJP has 161 MLAs, Congress has 12, Aam Aadmi Party has 4 and two independent MLAs. Since Congress does not have the necessary numbers to field candidates, the victory of BJP candidates is certain to be unopposed.

With this election, it will be the first time since Gujarat became a state that there will be no Congress member from Gujarat in the Rajya Sabha. Congress is represented only by Banaskantha MP Geniben Thakor in the Lok Sabha. At present, the tenure of Congress’s lone Rajya Sabha MP Shaktisingh Gohil has ended, while the tenure of BJP’s Narhari Amin, Rambhai Mokaria and Ramilaben Bara is also ending.

Karnataka Congress: The stir in Karnataka politics intensified when major political signals came to light after Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s one-to-one meeting with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. According to sources, even before reaching Delhi, Siddaramaiah was aware of the seriousness of the situation and that is why he reached the capital with a complete strategy.

Siddaramaiah reached Delhi with ministers

It is being told that Siddaramaiah took about a dozen ministers with him to Delhi on a special flight. It is believed that this step was part of the strategy to show one’s political strength and support in front of the high command. According to sources, his plan was to first place the demand for cabinet reshuffle in the meeting. Also, if the party leadership did not agree with his views, he wanted to strengthen his arguments by involving the senior ministers accompanying him in the discussion.

Also read- Karnataka’s drama is over! Grievances will be resolved over breakfast, Siddaramaiah sent a call to DK Shivkumar before leaving the CM’s chair.

The entire incident changed in the meeting

However, the events of the meeting went in a completely different direction. According to sources, during the meeting with Rahul Gandhi, instead of asking Siddaramaiah for his opinion, he was directly informed about the party’s wishes. He was told that Congress wants him to go to Rajya Sabha, take charge of the party at the national level and leave the post of Chief Minister.

Siddaramaiah asked for time when he went to Rajya Sabha

Sources say that Siddaramaiah did not get much opportunity to present his views in detail in the meeting. On the proposal of going to Rajya Sabha, he only said that at present he has no desire to enter national politics and he needs some time to take a decision on this subject. It is being told that after this the meeting ended and he was asked to convey his final decision to Congress General Secretary KC Venugopal.

Discussion with ministers after the meeting

After the meeting was over, Siddaramaiah directly met Energy Minister K.J. Reached George’s house. While talking to the ministers present there, he said that the party high command seemed to be adamant on its decision and he did not get the opportunity to present his views fully. He also indicated that he was returning to Bengaluru immediately.

Final decision can be given on Thursday

According to sources, after this a message was sent to KC Venugopal that Siddaramaiah is not interested in going to Rajya Sabha at present. He also said that he will give his final decision on this entire issue on Thursday.

Senior Biju Janata Dal leader and Rajya Sabha MP Debashish Samantrai has resigned from the primary membership of the party. He was considered close to Naveen Patnaik. He has given information regarding his resignation by posting it on social media platform X. He cited his neglect in the party as the reason behind this.

He posted on X and wrote, ‘My resignation letter to Biju Janata Dal President Naveen Patnaik. From the inception of the party till today, I have worked according to my policy of service, organization and dedication. In future also I will continue my struggle for the people of Odisha. Jai Jagannath.

Honorable President of Biju Janata Team Shri @Naveen_Odisha My resignation letter to. The party has been established and today I have worked on the principles of service, organization and dedication. I will continue my struggle for the people of Odisha in the future. Jai Jagannath pic.twitter.com/Qfgy16PbLl

— Debashish Samantaray (@debashish_mla) May 25, 2026

Letter written to Naveen Patnaik

Samantrai said, today i.e. on 25th May, I am resigning from the primary membership of BJD. I will always be grateful to you for nominating me to Rajya Sabha. I take this opportunity to express my heartfelt gratitude to you for giving me the opportunity to serve the people of undivided Cuttack district and raise the issues of Odisha at the national level.

Petrol and diesel prices increased for the fourth time in 10 days, Rahul Gandhi got furious, said- ‘Sneaking up…’

‘I am being insulted in the party’

He further wrote, I have always dedicated myself to the interest of the party and have worked for the party with complete honesty and commitment over the years, but I feel that in recent times I am being systematically insulted in the party and the party does not require my services. Therefore, I have taken this difficult decision in public interest and request you to accept my resignation.

Former Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik wrote a letter to Nirmala Sitharaman, expressed grief over what?

The Election Commission has announced elections for 24 seats to be vacant in June-July. Apart from this, the date of by-elections for two Rajya Sabha seats in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu has also been announced. The tenure of 24 members of Rajya Sabha in 10 states is going to end in June-July. The Commission has announced the election dates for all these 24 seats.

When will the elections be held on the vacant seats of Rajya Sabha?

Elections for Rajya Sabha seats will be held in those 10 states where the tenure of the existing members is ending on different dates between June 21 and July 19. According to the Election Commission, voting for the biennial elections will take place on June 18 and the results will be declared on the same day. The Election Commission will issue a notification on June 1. June 8 has been kept as the last date for filing nominations.

Where and how many seats will the elections be held?

Rajya Sabha elections will be held on four seats each in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka, three seats each in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, two seats in Jharkhand and one seat each in Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram. The last date for filing nominations is June 8.

Rajasthan Rajya Sabha Election 2026: There will be a close contest for three Rajya Sabha seats of Rajasthan! Dates have been announced

By-elections will be held on two seats

EC has also announced by-elections on two Rajya Sabha seats. Both the seats have become vacant after the resignation of the leaders. After the resignation of Sunetra Pawar in Maharashtra, by-election will be held on a Rajya Sabha seat. His tenure was till July 4, 2028, but after becoming MLA, he resigned from the post on May 6. Meanwhile, AIADMK leader CV Shanmugam resigned from Rajya Sabha membership after becoming MLA from Mailam constituency in the Tamil Nadu assembly elections on May 7. His tenure was to end on 29 June 2028. According to the schedule of the Commission, voting will take place on June 18 and the results will be declared on the same day.

The Commission has directed that to conduct free and fair elections, necessary arrangements will be made to closely monitor the election process by appointing observers.

Jharkhand Rajya Sabha Elections 2026: Election dates announced for 2 Rajya Sabha seats in Jharkhand, one seat is vacant since 2025

There is a big rift in the Aam Aadmi Party. Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha has claimed that he has 8 MPs with him. All of them will merge themselves with the Bharatiya Janata Party. AAP MP Raghav Chadha has said that AAP has 10 MPs in Rajya Sabha, out of which more than two-thirds are with us in this matter. He has signed and this morning we have handed over the signed letter and documents to the Chairman of Rajya Sabha. 3 of them are present here in front of you. Apart from us, there are also Harbhajan Singh, Rajinder Gupta, Vikram Sahni and Swati Maliwal.”

Now the question is arising that how many MPs of Aam Aadmi Party are left in Rajya Sabha? After Raghav Chadha’s claims, now only Narayan Das, Sanjay Singh and Sant Balbir are left in the Rajya Sabha.

On the other hand, Aam Aadmi Party has accused of conducting Operation Lotus. Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh, while making a scathing attack on BJP, said that “Operation Lotus” is a very cheap game of politics. He alleged that a conspiracy is being hatched to stop the good work of the Bhagwant Mann government in Punjab and destabilize it. According to him, 7 MPs of Aam Aadmi Party have been defected and joined BJP and this is a direct betrayal of the people of Punjab.

This entire game is being played at the behest of Amit Shah- Sanjay Singh

Sanjay Singh said that the party made Raghav an MP, MLA and the people of Punjab loved him a lot, but he went with BJP. Referring to Sandeep Pathak, he said that the party gave him big responsibilities and sent him to Rajya Sabha. Apart from this, taking the names of Balbir Singh, Ashok Mittal, Rajendra Gupta, Swati Maliwal and Harbhajan Singh, he said that the public had elevated all of them to the Rajya Sabha, but now they have betrayed the same public.

He alleged that this entire game is being played at the behest of Amit Shah and the functioning of the Bhagwant Mann government is being disrupted. Sanjay Singh said that the people of Punjab will never forgive this. He also claimed that pressure is being put on the MPs by showing fear of the agencies. Referring to the recent ED action at Ashok Mittal’s house, he said that “Operation Lotus” is being carried out in the same way.

The announcement of Raghav Chadha and 6 other Rajya Sabha MPs leaving Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and joining BJP has brought a major upheaval in Indian politics. While this development has raised serious questions on the future of AAP, it has also opened doors to new possibilities for BJP in Punjab and national politics. After this upheaval, 4 scenarios are being created, about which you will know in the explainer…

Scenario 1: Modi cabinet will be expanded, new people will get ‘gift’

At present, no confirmed news of immediate expansion of Modi cabinet has come to light. Political expert and CSDS professor Sanjay Kumar says, ‘When a group of seven MPs join the party, especially when it includes young and vocal faces like Raghav Chadha, it has been an established political tradition to ‘reward’ them by giving them a place in the cabinet. This step will not only serve to woo the leaders who have defected, but will also give a strong signal to the disgruntled leaders of other parties to join BJP. If we look at the history of BJP, the party has often given important responsibilities to those who have joined the party on a large scale, however, giving a place in the cabinet is a complex equation that depends on caste, regional and political balance.

Scenario 2: BJP gets a big face in the form of Raghav in Punjab elections.

Sanjay Kumar says that this is the most important question and the answer to it can largely be ‘yes’. With Raghav Chadha joining BJP, the party can get that big ‘young Sikh face’ in Punjab, which it was missing for a long time.

Punjab BJP President Sunil Jakhar had admitted in an interview a few days ago that the party did not have any local big face in the state and then he had said, ‘Our face in Punjab and India is Prime Minister Narendra Modi and our ideology.’ Apart from this, he also said that once the party contests all 117 seats alone, the leadership will develop automatically.

According to Sanjay Kumar, Raghav Chaddha can now fill this gap. He is a well-known face, comes from Punjab, his working style in Parliament has been praised and he has the ability to remain in the media headlines. Looking at the 2027 assembly elections, BJP can project him as its main face in Punjab, especially when the party is building the narrative of ‘Punjab ka Apna Betaa’ against the ‘outsider’ leadership (Arvind Kejriwal) of the Aam Aadmi Party.

Scenario 3: AAP party’s last innings completed in Punjab

Sanjay Kumar believes it is too early for the AAP party to call ‘game over’ in Punjab, but it definitely signals ‘the beginning of the end’ for AAP. Punjab BJP President Sunil Jakhar has already said that ‘Raghav Chadha episode signals the beginning of the end of AAP in Punjab and the countdown to the extinction of AAP as a recognized party has begun.’

There are 3 big reasons for this:

1. Organizational Weakness: Punjab is your last stronghold. Defection on such a large scale will break the morale of party workers and local leaders, which will weaken the party at the grassroots level.
2. Already released developments: Jakhar had already mentioned the disintegration of AAP and cases like the controversy related to Laljit Singh Bhullar, Harmeet Singh Pathanmajra arrested on rape charges and the distance of Raghav Chadha as evidence of the party’s decline.
3. Charge of external leadership: BJP is already accusing AAP of being an ‘outsider’, which is proving effective among the people of Punjab.

However, being in power, AAP still has resources and government machinery at its disposal. She will try her best to handle the situation, but this big setback will make her path extremely difficult in the 2027 elections.

Scenario 4: AAP gets wiped out with the departure of 7 out of 10 MPs

Mathematically speaking, this is a devastating loss for ‘AAP’, which would be like being ‘cleaned up’…

• Position in Rajya Sabha: AAP had a total of 10 MPs in the Rajya Sabha. After the resignation of 7, now only 3 are left. This will almost eliminate the party’s voice and legislative influence in the Upper House. Additionally, as per the rules, MPs who defect will not face disqualification as they represent a ‘two-thirds’ majority of the party, a safe passage under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution.
• National Party Status: This mass resignation is a big threat to AAP’s national party status. To give this status, the Election Commission considers many factors including the number of MPs in Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha. Due to the departure of such a large number of MPs, this status may come under review.
• Symbolic damage: It is not just a matter of numbers. The leaders who left the party include prominent faces like Sandeep Pathak (National General Secretary), Swati Maliwal (former DCW President) and Harbhajan Singh (former cricketer). This disintegration is a message that there is deep dissatisfaction within the party with its own top leadership. Raghav Chadha said, ‘The party has deviated from its goals and is working for personal gain.’ Publicly exposes this internal discord.

The defection of Raghav Chadha and his colleagues creates an existential crisis for the Aam Aadmi Party. This development raises a big question on the political future of the party not only in Punjab but also at the national level. At the same time, this is a strategic victory for BJP, which can give it a strong local face and organizational edge in Punjab.