Tamil Nadu Election Result 2026: Whose hand will Vijay hold to become CM in Tamil Nadu? Who will tie the knot with TVK – DMK or AIADMK?

For the last 50 years, the politics of Tamil Nadu was divided in the name of DMK or AIADMK, but on May 4, 2026, a new name emerged – Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK). Vijay Thalapathy’s party is near the magic majority figure of 118. In such a situation, the most important question being asked is which camp of old politics will Vijay form the government with and what is the ‘inside story’ of this power equation.

Question 1: First of all, tell me, what do the latest election results say?

answer: The assembly elections held in May 2026 have almost brought an earthquake. TVK is leading on more than 106 seats in its very first election. The biggest blow came from state Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, who is trailing in his traditional seat Kolathur also. The situation of his son and Deputy CM Udhayanidhi Stalin is also similar. However, AIADMK has also made a comeback with a lead on 67 seats, while DMK seems to be limited to 62 seats.

Question 2: Then with whom will Vijay go to form the government?

answer: It seems that the picture is disturbing. In fact, Vijay neither accepted being in any alliance before nor has talked directly to anyone now. They are constantly being presented as a ‘free choice’. At present, Vijay, being the leader of the largest party and the single largest party, can stake claim to form the government first, without any support. But if they fall short of majority, they are left with the option of DMK or AIADMK.

Question 3: Can Vijay forge an alliance with AIADMK?

answer: This path is as complicated as it looks simple. There are 3 big reasons for this:

1. Equation of power sharing: AIADMK is already building a strong base with allies like BJP and PMK. The alliance of TVK, AIADMK and NDA can cross the majority mark.
2. Formula of Practical Politics: Experts believe that after spending years out of power, a post-poll alliance could be a golden opportunity for the AIADMK to make a comeback. If AIADMK is not able to form the government on its own then it would be wise to join hands with TVK.
3. Political mathematics of the fight: This is possible only by defeating old wounds. AIADMK Chief E. Palaniswami had earlier publicly said that there would be no alliance with TVK. Apart from this, in the initial statements, Vijay had allegedly demanded the face of CM and 50% seats, which was not acceptable to AIADMK at all.

Question 4: Can Vijay move towards DMK?

answer: The possibility of this is very less. In fact, during the election campaign, Vijay has criticized DMK in the strongest terms. His entire election rallies were against ‘corruption’ and nepotism, which was targeted at DMK. In such a situation, joining DMK immediately after the elections will spoil their entire election agenda. Politically, this would seem very awkward and not credible. However, both AIADMK and DMK are completely rejecting the speculations of alliance with TVK. Vijay’s party is also calling it a ‘rumour’.

Question 5: Right now both are clearly refusing, then how will the situation develop in the end?

answer: This is exactly like a chess move. Even if everyone is denying everything, the real mathematics always comes into play in the post-poll scenario.

• Number Game: Suppose TVK wins 100 seats, then it will need 18 seats. In such a situation, he can seek support of 18-20 seats from AIADMK (67) or DMK (62). He can run the government with only ‘external support’ without forming a complete alliance. This would be the most practical solution.
• Political pressure: If TVK comes close to majority, there will be pressure from voters and leaders to form the government with the largest party. In such a situation, arithmetic will matter more than old enmity or cordial relations.
• Master stroke of victory: Since TVK had contested all 234 seats, it would not be against its political identity for the party to seek external support. He will be able to play the role of a strong opposition or bargain for the CM post.

Apart from this, other small parties like PMK (7 seats) and Congress (3 seats) can also play the role of ‘kingmaker’, but the real ball is in Vijay’s court.