By Admin 
NATO summit was going on in Ankara, the capital of Turkey on 8 July 2026. In this, the statement of US President Donald Trump shook the markets of the whole world. Trump said, ‘The ceasefire agreement with Iran has now completely ended. I don’t want to make any deal with Iran now. Trump also said in his statement that America had launched strong attacks on Iran last night and targeted dangerous people. Trump’s statement sent oil and gas prices soaring and bombs started falling on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. So now will oil and gas become expensive in India too?
Donald Trump’s statement will have 5 big impacts, which will create turmoil in India…
First effect: immediate rise in oil prices
Immediately after this statement of Trump, there was a huge jump in the prices of crude oil in the international market. The price of Brent crude oil jumped by more than 5 percent and crossed $ 78 per barrel. WTI crude also reached $74 per barrel. Experts say that if this tension continues for a long time and the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, then crude oil prices may go up to $ 85 to $ 90 per barrel.
It is very important to understand one thing here that India imports about 90 percent of its crude oil requirement. That means if oil becomes expensive in the world, then India has to pay more money to buy it. When India has to pay more for oil, it directly impacts our pockets. From petrol-diesel to CNG and even the prices of daily essentials increase. As was seen in the past days. The price of petrol increased by Rs 15 and the fight for the cylinder started.
Second effect: huge fall in the Indian stock market
The effect of Trump’s announcement was immediately visible on the Indian stock market. The Sensex fell by more than 1,600 points, while the Nifty fell by more than 2 percent. The reasons for this decline were clear:
- Investors’ confidence was shattered as hopes for peace with Iran were dashed.
- There was a jump in the prices of crude oil.
- Pressure on the rupee means that due to oil becoming expensive, India has to buy more dollars, due to which the rupee becomes weak.
According to senior market analyst Tilokchand Gaglani, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, crude can go up to $ 85-90 per barrel. He also said that it will not have a huge impact on India, because India has diversified its sourcing and has created strategic reserves.
Third effect: danger of rising inflation
In May 2026, when the Iran war was at its peak, wholesale inflation (WPI) in India increased from 2.2% in February 2026 to 9.7%. This means that things had become expensive by 9.7 percent in bulk, which was a big shock for the common man.
Now that Trump has again increased the tension, experts fear that if this situation continues for a long time, India’s crude import basket may cross $ 75 per barrel. This will increase the import bill, increase inflation, worsen the current account deficit and put pressure on the profits of companies. However, India’s diversified sourcing can reduce these shocks to some extent.
Fourth effect: increasing pressure on the rupee
When crude oil becomes expensive, India needs more dollars to buy it. This increases the demand for dollars and weakens the rupee. A weak rupee means that everything coming from abroad becomes expensive, from mobile phones to machinery. Besides, the pockets of students studying abroad and those going on foreign trips also become loose.
Fifth effect: When and by how much will the prices of petrol, diesel and CNG increase?
This is the biggest question which is in the mind of every common man…
Experts say that prices will increase, but not immediately. When the Iran war started in May 2026, the government oil companies had made petrol and diesel expensive by Rs 3 per liter and CNG by Rs 2 per kg. At that time CNG was priced at Rs 79.09 per kg in Delhi, Rs 80.70 in Noida, Rs 84.12 in Gurugram and Rs 88.44 in Ajmer. CNG became Rs 84 per kg in Mumbai.
Right now, one or two attacks will not increase prices immediately, but if the tension continues for a long time, shipping from Hormuz stops or global LNG prices remain high for a long time, then oil and gas will become expensive in India too.
Foreign affairs expert and JNU professor Dr. Rajan Kumar says that oil prices in India will depend on how expensive crude oil is. If crude remains at $75-78, prices may increase in 2-4 weeks. If Hormuz is closed and crude reaches $85-90, the increase could be higher.
There was no change in the prices of petrol, diesel and CNG till the morning of 8 July 2026. But it is worth noting that oil prices have already reached $75 per barrel. This was very low till a few weeks ago.
How much preparation has India done to deal with these situations?
This answer is in two parts – good news and worrying news.
Good news: India stocked up heavily on oil
By the end of June 2026, India had total crude oil reserves of 104 million barrels, which is the highest level in a year. This includes strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), commercial stocks and refinery stocks.
Talking about strategic petroleum reserves, India has 39 million barrel capacity. That means a total of 39 million barrels of oil can be stored in the three strategic reserves – Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru and Padur. India gets import cover of about 9.5 days from these strategic reserves. That means, if for some reason the oil supply stops completely, the country’s needs can be met for 9.5 days from these reserves.
Apart from this, government oil companies have reserves of crude oil and petroleum products, which is equal to 64.5 days of imports. According to the data of the Petroleum Ministry, overall India has reserves of crude and petroleum products equal to about 74 days of imports.
Worrying news: Reserves are less than China
India’s strategic reserves are much less than Asia’s second largest energy consumer, China. China has such large reserves that it can reduce crude imports. The Iran War exposed India’s limited strategic oil storage capacity. For this reason, the government has asked ONGC to create a new strategic reserve of Rs 15,000 crore in Mangaluru.
The central government is working on a plan to create new reserves in Chandikhol, Bina, Bikaner and increase capacity in Mangaluru-Padur. On completion of these projects, the strategic storage capacity will increase to equal to 40 days of imports.