The results of Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 are being eagerly awaited. Meanwhile, most of the exit polls have claimed the return of Nitish Kumar led NDA to power with an average victory of 125 seats. At the same time, the opposition Grand Alliance has been given an average of 87 seats. Now the question arises that how much should exit polls be trusted? What does history say?

Let us know how accurate and wrong the exit polls were in the last two and a half decades and four assembly elections.

When exit polls were proved wrong in Bihar Assembly elections 2020

In the year 2020, an average of 11 exit polls had predicted that the Grand Alliance led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) would form the government, albeit by a small margin. During that time, many exit polls had claimed that the Grand Alliance had won 125 seats, which was three seats more than the majority figure (122). At the same time, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JDU) was said to get 108 seats.

In 2020, these average 11 exit polls proved wrong. NDA got 17 more seats and Grand Alliance got 15 seats less. Contrary to the exit poll figures, the NDA government came to power. The end result was that the NDA crossed the majority mark in the House by a very small margin. The ruling coalition party NDA got 125 seats (BJP- 74, JDU- 43), while the Grand Alliance got 110 seats (RJD- 75, Congress- 19).

How many exit polls were correct in 2015?

In the year 2015, Nitish Kumar’s JDU was a part of the grand alliance and BJP was leading the NDA. Other local parties were also included in NDA. At that time, six big exit polls had claimed that there would be an equal contest between the Grand Alliance and the NDA, but the government would be formed by the Grand Alliance. Exit polls had estimated that the Grand Alliance could get 123 seats while the BJP-led NDA could get 114 seats.

At the same time, three other exit polls had given the Grand Alliance victory by a huge margin and two exit polls believed that the NDA would form the government. Apart from this, there was an exit poll which indicated the possibility of a hung assembly.

After this, what happened was that the Grand Alliance came to power by winning two-thirds of the seats with a huge margin. That is, the exit poll gave the correct victory figures, but the Grand Alliance brought more seats than expected.

In the Bihar Assembly elections 2015, the Grand Alliance won 178 seats (RJD- 80, JDU- 71, Congress- 27), while the NDA could win only 58 constituencies (BJP- 53).

Where were the exit polls lagging behind in Bihar Assembly elections 2010?

In the 2010 assembly elections, exit polls had claimed the victory of NDA but had underestimated the wave of Nitish Kumar. BJP and JDU were part of NDA, while LJP contested the elections in alliance with RJD. JDU got 115 seats, while BJP got 91 seats. Apart from this, RJD had won 22 seats, Congress 4 and LJP 3 seats.

What happened in Bihar Assembly elections 2005?

Exit polls had predicted a victory for the NDA, and most exit polls had given the NDA 120 to 130 seats, while the RJD+ was projected to get between 90 and 100 seats.

What was the result?
JDU won 88 seats, BJP won 55 seats, while RJD won 54 seats. Whereas, LJP got 10 seats and Congress got 9 seats. Even during this period, the exit polls were lagging far behind in the figures.

The exit poll of voting in the second phase of Bihar Assembly elections 2025 has now come out. Experts of ABP Live have prepared this exit poll, in which the situation of every seat in every district, the equation of victory and defeat and the impact of the major issues there on the elections have been explained in detail. Opinions have been taken from more than 150 journalists for 243 seats. Let us tell you who can win or lose the election from which seat.

BJP’s Prem Kumar is winning from Gaya!

Out of 10 seats in Gaya district, NDA is likely to get 2, JDU 1, HAM 2 and RJD 4, while there is tough competition on one seat. BJP’s Prem Kumar is winning in Gaya city. JDU’s Bela Devi in ​​Belaganj, HAM’s Romit Kumar in Atri and RJD’s Kumar Sarvjeet or LJP’s Shyamdev Paswan in Bodhgaya are likely to win. There is tough competition in Sherghati, Imamganj and Gurua also.

JDU is ahead in Jainpur and RJD is ahead in Bhabua?

Of the four seats in Kaimur district, JDU is likely to get one seat, RJD is likely to get one seat and two seats are in a close contest. JDU has lead in Chainpur, RJD is ahead in Bhabua, competition is tough in Mohania and Ramgarh also. In Rohtas, out of seven seats, one seat is for NDA, three seats are for Grand Alliance and there is tough competition on three seats. RJD is ahead in Sasaram and Nokha, BSP’s Uday Pratap Singh is likely to win from Karhagar. There is a close contest in Dehri and Karakat also.

Possible victory of RJD and LJP in Jehanabad?

Of the six seats in Aurangabad, NDA is likely to get two and Grand Alliance three, while there is tough competition on one seat. Goh and Obara are in favor of the Grand Alliance, while the Grand Alliance has an edge in Kutumba also. The distribution of seats in Arwal, Jehanabad and Nawada is mixed. One seat of Arwal is with the Grand Alliance, while the contest on the other is tough. RJD and LJP Ram Vilas are likely to win in Jehanabad, while out of five seats in Nawada, four are seen in favor of Grand Alliance and one in favor of NDA.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Three seats each of Madhubani in favor of BJP and JDU!

Of the seven seats in Bhagalpur, four are likely to go to the NDA and three to the Grand Alliance. Out of the five seats of Banka, there is tough competition on three NDA seats and two others. Of the four seats in Jamui, one seat is going in favor of BJP, one for us and two for RJD. Of the eight seats in Sitamarhi, NDA is likely to get seven and RJD one seat. The competition on the only seat of Shivhar is very tough. In Madhubani, three seats each are going in favor of BJP and JDU and one seat each is going to RJD and Congress. Of the five seats in Supaul, four are in favor of NDA and one in favor of RJD.

The distribution of seats in seven and six seats of Purnia and Araria is mixed. There is tough competition on three NDA, three Grand Alliance and one seat in Purnia. In Araria, there is tough competition on three seats for NDA, two for Grand Alliance and one for Grand Alliance.

NDA leads on 12 seats in East Champaran!

In Katihar and Kishanganj also, competition is being seen between NDA and Grand Alliance. Of the seven seats in Katihar, five are in favor of NDA and two in favor of Grand Alliance. Of the four seats in Kishanganj, there are three grand alliances and a tough contest on one. Out of total 21 seats in East and West Champaran, NDA is getting 15 seats and Grand Alliance is getting 6 seats. In East Champaran, there is a split between BJP, JDU, LJP and Congress in 12 seats, while in West Champaran, out of 9 seats, NDA is likely to get 6 seats and Grand Alliance is likely to get 3 seats.

Final results will come on November 14

According to the exit poll, in the second phase, NDA is seen getting a total of 63 seats, the Grand Alliance is seen getting 42 seats, while the contest is very tough on 17 seats. In party wise figures, BJP 31, JDU 23, RJD 26, Congress 12, LJP Ram Vilas 4 and Left, VIP, Rashtriya Lok Morcha are likely to get two seats each. The final result will be awaited on 14th November.

Also read- Lakhisarai Experts Exit Poll 2025: Congress captures Vijay Sinha’s seat! RJD has upper hand over Suryagarha in exit polls

This time, NDA’s dominance is clearly visible on seven assembly seats of Katihar district. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll 2025, out of total 7 seats, 5 seats seem to be going to NDA’s account, while the Grand Alliance may have to be limited to only 2 seats. Party-wise, BJP is likely to get 2 seats, JDU 3, while Congress and MLA are likely to get 1 seat each in the grand alliance.

77.83% voting, women voters had a special impact

This time tremendous enthusiasm was seen in voting in Katihar district. With 77.83% voting, the voters here participated enthusiastically in democracy. A total of 2,61,640 voters cast their votes.

Political analysts say that Nitish Kumar’s schemes among women, especially the scheme of getting Rs 10,000 directly into their accounts, made the path of NDA easier.

Party wise distribution of 7 seats of Katihar –
– BJP: 2 seats
– JDU: 3 seats
– CPI(ML): 1 seat
– Congress: 1 seat

BJP’s return from Katihar seat decided for the 5th time

BJP candidate Tarkishore Prasad seems to be moving towards victory again. VIP Party’s Saurav Aggarwal certainly made the contest interesting, but the flag of victory seems to be in the hands of BJP.

JDU’s Dulal Chandra Goswami is once again heading towards victory from Kadwa seat. Dr. Shakeel Ahmed Khan of Congress gave a tough fight, but the public inclination seems to be in favor of Nitish Kumar’s policies.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Male flag will fly again in Balrampur

CPI(ML)’s Mehboob Alam is preparing to register victory for the fifth consecutive time. Sangeeta Devi of LJP (Ram Vilas) could not live up to the expectations of the people.

Whereas in Pranpur there is a close contest between BJP and RJD. Here there is a direct contest between Nisha Singh of BJP and Ishrat Parveen of RJD. But according to the exit poll, Nisha Singh is leading by a slight margin.

Strong position of JDU’s Shambhu Suman in Manihari

JDU candidate Shambhu Suman has got full support of the public. Congress’s Manohar Singh seems to be lagging behind this time. There is an exciting contest between JDU and Congress in Barari. The competition here is very interesting. There is a close fight between JDU’s Vijay Singh Nishad and Congress’s Tauqeer Alam, but JDU has got a slight lead.

There is a possibility of Congress’ return in Kodha. Here Poonam Paswan of Congress has given a tough competition to Kavita Paswan of BJP. Congress seems to be getting the lead in the exit polls.

Women decided the direction of victory – experts

Senior journalist Ravi Raj says that women voters have set the NDA afloat this time. The Rs 10,000 scheme and belief in women’s safety made a difference.

According to political expert Srishti Raj, Nitish Kumar’s credibility is still intact. Women consider his rule trustworthy. Senior journalist Ritika also said that the promises of financial help and future to women have created a wave in favor of NDA.

NDA’s lead certain in Katihar

NDA seems to be getting a clear lead in ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll. BJP and JDU have made a strong hold, while the hopes of the Grand Alliance seem to be limited to limited seats only.

It is clear from the voting trends that the issue of development and women empowerment in Katihar decided the attitude of the voters and this time too the key to power seems to be in the hands of NDA.

List of candidates of NDA and Grand Alliance

NDA and Grand Alliance have fielded their candidates on all seven assembly seats of Katihar district. Tarkishore Prasad (BJP) from NDA and Sausham Aggarwal (VIP) from Grand Alliance are in the fray from Katihar seat. Dulal Chandra Goswami (JDU) is contesting from Shakeel Ahmed Khan (Congress) on Kadwa seat. Mehboob Alam (CPI ML) is facing Sangeeta Devi (LJP) from Balrampur. There is a tough contest between Nisha Singh (BJP) and Ishrat Parveen (RJD) in Pranpur.

In Manihari seat, it is Shambhu Muni (JDU) versus Manohar Prasad Singh (Congress), while in Barari, Vijay Singh Nishad (JDU) is facing Tauqeer Alam (Congress). On the Kodha seat, a direct contest is being seen between Kavita Devi (BJP) and Poonam Paswan (Congress).

This time NDA clearly has the upper hand in 8 assembly seats of Sitamarhi district. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll 2025, NDA is expected to get 7 out of total 8 seats, while the Grand Alliance seems to be limited to only one seat.

According to the poll, BJP is in a strong position on 4 seats, JDU is leading on two seats and RLPA can take one seat. At the same time, RJD is predicted to get only one seat.

Party wise distribution of 8 seats of Sitamarhi –

– BJP: 4 seats

– JDU: 2 seats

– RLopa: 1 seat

– RJD: 1 seat

BJP’s victory certain in Riga and Majorganj

Senior journalist Amarendra Singh said that BJP’s victory on Riga and Majorganj seats is considered almost certain. RJD seems to have an upper hand on Belsand seat, while NDA’s performance is expected to be better on other seats.

Political experts have also justified the exit poll figures. He says that even at the grassroots level, the voters are more inclined in favor of the NDA. From villages to towns, a wave in favor of BJP and JDU is being felt.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

People’s expectations from NDA

Voters say that this time development and local issues remained at the center of elections. Improvement in the condition of roads and electricity in areas like Riga, Bathnaha and Majorganj has given an edge to NDA candidates.

This time in Sitamarhi, the wind seems to be blowing in favor of NDA, while the grand alliance may have to face a big challenge. However, the final decision will become clear only on the day of counting.

List of candidates on Sitamarhi assembly seats

Baidyanath Prasad of BJP and Amit Kumar Tunna of Congress are in the fray from Riga seat. Anil Kumar Ram of BJP and Naveen Kumar of Congress are contesting from Bathnaha (Scheduled Caste) seat. BJP’s Gayatri Devi and RJD’s Smita Purve Gupta are face to face on Parihar seat. Nagendra Raut of JDU and Syed Abu Dojana of RJD are candidates from Sursand.

RLM’s Rameshwar Mahato and RJD’s Mukesh Yadav are contesting from Bajpatti seat. Sunil Kumar Pintu of BJP and Sunil Kushwaha of RJD are candidates from Sitamarhi Assembly. In Rannisaidpur seat, JDU’s Pankaj Kumar Mishra and RJD’s Chandan Kumar are in the fray, while in Belsand seat, there is a contest between LJP’s Amit Kumar (Ram Vilas) and RJD’s Sanjay Gupta.

The voting process for 243 assembly seats in Bihar has been completed in two phases on November 6 and November 11. With the end of voting, exit polls have come out regarding Bihar, in all the exit polls NDA government seems to be formed. However, the results will be known on November 14, the day of counting, which way the public’s decision has gone. There are a total of two assembly seats in Arwal, Bihar, experts’ opinion on who will win or lose on these two seats has come out.

There are 2 assembly seats in Arwal, Bihar, out of which there is no news of relief for the NDA, the Arwal assembly seat seems to be going to the Grand Alliance. There is a tough contest between Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal United on Kurta Assembly seat.

Party wise division in Arwal district
Total Seat- 2
NDA- 0
Grand Alliance-1 (CPMIL)
tough competition-1

Arwal Assembly Constituency

In the election held in Arwal between BJP’s Manoj Sharma and CPI(ML)’s Mahanand, CPI(ML) is being said to be the edge. Local journalists Raju Singh, Sanjay Kumar and Anirudh Kumar are telling Mahanand Singh further. Experts believe that Mahanand of Male can defeat BJP candidate Manoj Sharma on Arwal seat.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Kurtha Assembly Constituency

Talking about Kurtha assembly constituency, there is a direct contest between RJD’s Suday Yadav and JDU’s Pappu Verma. According to local reporters Sujit Kumar and Sanjay Sonar, there is a tough competition between the two, in which Pappu Verma of JDU is being said to be the edge. If we talk party wise, one seat is certain for the Left and the contest for the other is tough.

In the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, voting has ended on 10 seats in Saran district and now all eyes are on the counting of votes to be held on November 14. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll, JDU may get 2 seats, BJP 4 and RJD 2 seats. Whereas tough competition is being said on 2 seats.

Chhapra became the hottest seat

According to political expert Prabhat Kiran Himanshu, this time Chhapra assembly seat has become the center of discussion in entire Bihar. Bhojpuri cinema superstar Khesari Lal Yadav is contesting here on RJD ticket, while BJP candidate Chhoti Kumari is in the fray from NDA.

The voters of the city have always been decisive, and on the day of voting, a huge crowd was seen at the urban booths. However, with former BJP mayor Rakhi Gupta contesting as an independent, NDA votes may get divided.

Himanshu says that the contest in Chhapra is very interesting. There is a direct competition between Khesari Lal’s star power and the strong organization of NDA.

Party wise distribution of 10 seats of Saran –

– NDA: 6 seats
– Grand Alliance: 2 seats
– Tough competition: 2 seats

Battle of ‘Singh vs Yadav’ in Manjhi

Political expert Prabhat Kiran Himanshu says that this time JDU’s Randhir Singh, son of former MP Prabhunath Singh, is in the fray for Manjhi assembly seat. His contest is against CPIM’s Satyendra Yadav. But with BJP rebel Rana Pratap Singh contesting as an independent, this seat has turned into a triangular contest.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Biharkhes

Karishma Rai changed the equations in Parsa

Chapra’s senior journalist Bipin Bihari Srivastava says that Parsa assembly seat has also become a hot seat this time. Here RJD has given ticket to Dr. Karishma Rai, sister-in-law of Tej Pratap Yadav, while outgoing MLA Chhotalal Rai has changed party and contested the elections from JDU.

According to Bipin Bihari, there is a situation of doubt among the public after the change of party of Chhotalal Rai. Karishma Rai is young, educated and there is enthusiasm about her among the local voters.

IT minister’s reputation at stake in Amanour

According to journalist Bipin Bihari Srivastava, there is a direct contest on the Amnaur seat between Bihar government’s IT Minister Krishna Kumar Mantu (BJP) and RJD’s District President Sunil Rai. The strength of the organization and the image of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may work in Mantu’s favor, but the competition is tough.

On the other hand, this time in Baniyapur also the battle of credibility is being fought. Here too, former MP Prabhunath Singh’s younger brother Kedarnath Singh has contested the elections on BJP ticket. Who has faced competition from Chandni Devi, wife of former MLA late Ashok Kumar Singh.

While this time RJD has fielded Shailendra Pratap Singh from Taraiya, NDA has placed its bet on outgoing MLA Janak Singh, both the candidates come from Rajput community and both have a good hold in their areas.

Women voters became a factor

Political expert Ranjan Srivastava said that this time the role of women voters has become decisive in Saran. He told that Nitish Kumar has a good hold on women voters. The impact of his programs was clearly visible this time. Therefore, NDA candidates can get a big benefit from women votes.

According to Ranjan, out of 10 seats in Saran, 6 seats can go to NDA’s account, while the Grand Alliance is strong on the remaining 4 seats.

This time a fierce competition is being seen on all the seven assembly seats of Purnia district. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll 2025, this time there seems to be an equal contest between the NDA and the Grand Alliance. Out of total 7 seats, NDA is getting 3 seats, Grand Alliance is getting 3 seats and there is a close fight on one seat. BJP is looking strong on 2 seats, JDU on 1, RJD on 2 and Congress on 1 seat.

Let us know what is the equation seat by seat and who has the upper hand.

Lacey Singh’s lead continues in Dhamdaha

NDA’s JDU candidate and minister Lacey Singh is leading from Dhamdaha Assembly. Lacey Singh has once again proved her strong hold. Lacey Singh, who comes from Rajput caste, has influence on every community in the area. Be it Kushwaha, Koeri, Backward-Extreme Backward or Muslim voters.

Lacey Singh, considered close to CM Nitish Kumar, has won the trust of the people through development works like Purnia Airport, roads, electricity, water etc. However, due to being a five-time MLA, some degree of anti-incumbency is also being seen.

Party wise distribution of 7 seats of Purnia –

– BJP: 2 seats
– JDU: 1 seat
– RJD: 2 seats
– Congress: 1 seat
– Tough competition: 1 seat

Santosh Kushwaha, who left JDU and joined RJD, is at second place. They are also getting a big benefit due to the Luv-Kush equation (40%). The effect of Tejashwi Yadav’s public meetings is visible here.

Exciting battle between Bima Bharti vs Shankar Singh in Rupauli

This time there is a triangular contest in Rupauli. RJD’s Bima Bharti is leading, while independent candidate Shankar Singh is at second place. Bima Bharti comes from Gangota community, whose population here is about 35%. Muslim and Yadav voters are also standing with him.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

This time, Bima Bharti worked very hard before the elections, continuously met people and tried to erase old grievances. Like last time, Independent Shankar Singh is giving a tough fight this time too, but a large section of Muslim voters have now gone with the Grand Alliance. JDU candidate Kaladhar Mandal is considered weak in the equation this time.

BJP candidate from Purnia Sadar in strong position

BJP MLA Vijay Khemka is heading towards victory for the third consecutive time from Purnia Sadar seat. Khemka is recognized as a leader with a clean image. He has a deep hold on Vaishya and Swarn voters. The impact of PM Modi-Nitish’s development work, airport, Vande Bharat Train and DBT schemes is clearly visible here.

However, Grand Alliance candidate Jitendra Yadav is also in the contest. The functioning of the Municipal Corporation along with the Yadav-Muslim equation and the popularity of his wife (Mayor) are giving him strength. There is a slight effect of anti-incumbency here, but the face of Modi-Nitish has taken over the position of Khemka.

NDA’s Nitish Singh may win in Kasba

This time new face NDA candidate Nitish Kumar Singh is leading in Kasba Assembly. Here Congress candidate Irfan Alam is in second place, while former MLA Afaq Alam and independent Pradeep Das have made the contest interesting.

The population of Muslim voters in Kasba is 40%, but this time due to the presence of four Muslim candidates, vote dispersion is certain. Voters of Vaishya and Kushwaha communities seem united in favor of NDA. Political pundits say that Nitish Singh has completely mobilized the voters of his camp in the last days of the elections.

BJP’s Krishna Kumar Rishi ahead again from Banmankhi.

Once again BJP MLA Krishna Kumar Rishi is in a strong position on Banmankhi seat. This seat is SC reserved and Rishi comes from SC community. He has been a four-time MLA and twice a minister. They are getting the benefits of development schemes, railway station renovation and policies of Modi-Nitish.

Congress candidate Dev Narayan Rajak is at second place. There is definitely anti-incumbency in the area, but the caste equation is tilted in favor of BJP.

RJD’s Haji Abdus Subhan returns in Bayasi

RJD candidate and former minister Haji Abdus Subhan is leading in Bayasi. His influence remains intact in Muslim dominated areas. AIMIM candidate Ghulam Sarwar is in second place. Here Surjapuri community is in majority (70%) among Muslim voters, due to which Haji Subhan has got a huge lead.

Tejashwi Yadav’s gathering and RJD’s old vote bank have strengthened Subhaan’s position. Ghulam Sarwar’s clean image and the speeches of AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi definitely have an impact, but due to the scattering of votes, his position is limited to the second position.

Strong comeback of Congress’s Jalil Mastan in Amour

Senior Congress leader Abdul Jalil Mastan is leading in Amour. This seat is Muslim dominated (70%), dominated by the Surjapuri community. Jalil Mastan himself belongs to this society and has a deep influence at the local level. Whereas, JDU candidate Saba Zafar is at second place.

Saba Zafar belongs to the Kulhaiya community and has a long political experience, but this time the Surjapuri vote bank is completely visible with Mastan. The Congress candidate’s honest image and active role in the development of the area have given him an edge.

According to the exit poll, this time the politics of Purnia is based on a mixed equation of caste and development. Dhamdaha and Banmankhi seem to be in the control of NDA, while RJD’s position is strong in Rupauli and Bayasi. Congress has won in Amour, NDA in Kasba and BJP in Purnia Sadar.

The politics of Gopalganj district has become very interesting this time. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll 2025, out of 6 assembly seats in the district, NDA is seen getting 2 seats, Grand Alliance is seen getting 1 seat, while there is a close contest on 3 seats. Political experts say that this time local resentment, development and women’s votes have shown more impact than caste equations.

Congress has the upper hand in Gopalganj

This time the contest on Gopalganj seat is very interesting. Political expert Sanjay Kumar Abhay says that Congress seems to have the upper hand here. He said that BJP was in control for 20 years, but there was no development. The Congress candidate is a Brahmin, hence the Brahmin voters who were earlier with the BJP have now gone in favor of the Congress.

Party wise distribution of 6 seats of Gopalganj-

– JDU: 2 seats
– RJD: 1 seat

Tough competition for Baikunthpur, Gopalganj and Kuchaikot assembly seats

Besides, BJP’s rebel candidate Anup Srivastava has also cast his vote. On the other hand, senior journalist Manish Bharti believes that in the name of government benefits and development for women, BJP can win by 5 thousand votes.

Senior journalist Valmiki Mani Tiwari said that the contest here is 51-49. There was resentment in BJP, but in the end everyone united. Caste equation did not work this time. Whereas political expert Gopal Mishra gave lead to Congress and said that due to less votes of BSP candidate Indira Yadav, both Yadav and Brahmin votes went towards Congress.

RJD benefits from caste equation in Barauli

There is a direct contest between RJD and JDU on Barauli seat. According to political expert Sanjay Kumar Abhay, BJP did not get the Rajput vote here, due to which RJD is benefiting. Both Muslim and Brahmin sections are voting for RJD.

Journalist Manish Bharti says that RJD can remain ahead by 10 thousand votes here, while Valmiki Mani Tiwari described the contest as a tough one. Political expert Gopal Mishra said that RJD is getting the benefit of caste equation and clean image of the candidate.

Equal contest between RJD and BJP in Baikunthpur

The situation is complicated in Baikunthpur. Political expert Sanjay Abhay says that BJP can win because RJD’s votes are being cut by BSP candidate Pradeep Rai. At the same time, political expert Manish Bharti believes that RJD can win, but the margin will be very less.

Political expert Valmiki Mani Tiwari says that the BJP candidate has worked in the area before and the effect of Rs 10,000 given to Jeevika Didis will be visible here. Political expert Gopal Mishra said that there is a 50-50 chance between the two parties and the actual voters are silent, due to which it is difficult to predict the result.

JDU gets lead in the name of development in Hathua

The contest on Hathua seat is between JDU and RJD. According to political expert Sanjay Abhay, this time the effect of the work of Nitish government will be visible and JDU will win. However, political expert Manish Bharti said that RJD has the upper hand due to Brahmin resentment.

Whereas political experts Balmiki Mani Tiwari and Gopal Mishra both agreed that JDU has an edge due to development work, gas plant and industrial projects in the area, but the difference will be less.

Trust in Minister Sunil Kumar’s development model in Bhore

Current JDU minister Sunil Kumar is once again considered a strong contender for Bhore seat. Political expert Sanjay Abhay says that the effect of establishment of industries and schemes for women will be visible in this area. Jansuraj’s Preeti Kinnar was effective in the beginning, but the votes slipped in the end.

Political expert Manish Bharti and political expert Balmiki Tiwari both believe that JDU can win by 5 thousand votes, although some votes have been scattered due to the MLA candidate.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Some political experts warned that if Brahmin voters went with Male, the results could be reversed, because last time Sunil Kumar had won by only 900 votes.

The political battle on Kuchaikot seat is very interesting. Political expert Sanjay Abhay says that this time Congress will win because Yadav, Kushwaha, Bhumihar and Muslim votes are unitedly with Congress.

At the same time, political expert Manish Bharti claims that the JDU candidate got AC installed in two thousand mosques-madrasas at his personal expense, due to which he is getting support from every section. Political expert Balmiki Tiwari also gave a slight lead to JDU, while political expert Gopal Mishra says that Congress has directly benefited from the dispersion of Brahmin and Rajput votes.

This time also the contest on 10 assembly seats of Darbhanga district is interesting and competitive. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll 2025, NDA is expected to get 6 seats and Grand Alliance is expected to get 4 seats. That is, the Nitish-Modi factor is still showing its impact in Darbhanga, while the Grand Alliance has presented a tough contest on some seats.

In NDA, JDU is likely to get 4 seats and BJP is likely to get 2 seats, whereas in the Grand Alliance, RJD is likely to get 3 seats and CPI (M) is likely to get 1 seat.

NDA ahead despite vote boycott in Kusheshwarsthan

According to senior local journalist Santosh Poddar, this time the contest on Kusheshwarsthan seat was very close. JDU candidate Atirek Kumar definitely suffered loss due to vote boycott in some Panchayats, but due to Modi-Nitish factor, victory seems to be going to NDA. Independent Ganesh Bharti got some votes from Biraul area, but he will not be decisive.

Party wise seat distribution

JDU – 4 seats

BJP – 2 seats

RJD – 3 seats

CPI (M) – 1 seat

Binod Mishra gets lead due to unity of Brahmin votes in Alinagar

According to political expert Murari Jha, there is a tough fight on Alinagar seat between RJD’s Binod Mishra and BJP’s folk singer Maithili Thakur. But the issue of infighting and local versus outside candidates became decisive here. Binod Mishra has got the advantage of being local, due to which the chances of victory of the Grand Alliance are strong.

Women changed the equation in Darbhanga rural

According to political expert Amit Kumar, RJD had been in control of Darbhanga Rural for a long time, but this time JDU candidate Rajesh Kumar Mandal (Ishwar Mandal) got tremendous support. The impact of Nitish government’s schemes, especially the Rs 10,000 assistance scheme, was visible on women and new voters. The contest may be close, but NDA is said to be in the lead.

NDA has lead in Benipur

Senior journalist Deepak Jha says that women played a big role in Benipur seat. JDU’s Vinay Chaudhary alias Ajay Chaudhary has benefited from Nitish’s image. Congress’s Mithilesh Chaudhary is definitely trying to make a dent in the Brahmin votes, but overall the position of NDA seems strong.

Sanjay Saraogi’s hat-trick confirmed in Darbhanga Urban

According to expert Kumar Roshan, BJP MLA Sanjay Saraogi, who has won 5 consecutive times, seems to be winning once again. Although VIP candidates Umesh Sahni and Jansuraj’s Rakesh Mishra may cut some votes, but the impact will be limited.

According to political expert Ramesh Kumar, this time there is a triangular contest on Hayaghat seat. There is resentment in the area against BJP MLA Ramchandra Sah, and Aam Aadmi Party’s Ravindra Singh (Chintu Singh) is also giving a tough challenge. Here CPI(M)’s Shyam Bharti may get an advantage. Therefore, the possibility of victory of the Grand Alliance is being expressed.

Senior journalist Tinku Kumar says that in Bahadurpur there was a close contest between ministers Madan Sahni (JDU) and Bhola Yadav (RJD). However, due to Madan Sahni’s development image and local influence, NDA is said to have the upper hand.

This time RJD’s Afzal Ali Khan is getting lead in Gaudabauram seat. According to journalist Shankar Sahni, VIP withdrew its candidate, due to which the Mallah vote went to the Grand Alliance. BJP candidate Sujit Kumar had to face anti-incumbency.

Equation in favor of Faraz Fatmi in Kewati

According to political expert Rajan Kumar, this time RJD candidate Faraz Fatmi is in a strong position in the Yadav-Muslim dominated Keoti seat. The hold of his father Ali Ashraf Fatmi and the unity of Yadav voters is giving an edge to the Grand Alliance.

Jeevesh Mishra’s path to hat-trick is easy

Senior journalist Arun Pathak says that BJP minister Jivesh Mishra is moving towards victory for the third consecutive time on Jale seat. Congress’s Rishi Mishra can make some impact on Brahmin votes, but due to the rebellion of independent Masukur Usmani, the vote bank of the grand alliance has weakened.

The atmosphere is clear on 10 seats of Darbhanga. NDA is in a position to win 6 seats, Grand Alliance 4 seats. Where NDA is getting the benefit of Nitish’s development model and Modi factor.

Whereas the Grand Alliance is in the fray relying on local faces and caste equations. Overall, the equations have changed in Darbhanga, but the inclination of power remains towards NDA.

The political battle of Muzaffarpur district has become very interesting this time. According to ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll 2025, NDA is leading in 11 assembly seats of the district, while the Grand Alliance (MGB) is also giving a tough fight. Out of the total 11 seats in the district, NDA is contesting on 5 seats, Grand Alliance on 4 and a close contest is being considered on two seats. Especially the contest in Bochaha and Kudhani assembly remains very interesting.

Niranjan Rai has the upper hand in Gaighat

According to senior journalists Vishal and Ameer, RJD candidate Niranjan Rai is getting an edge due to JSP’s Ashok Kumar Singh cutting votes from Gaighat seat. JDU candidate Komal Singh seems to be bearing the brunt of this vote division.

Rama Nishad has lead in Aurai

According to experts Dheeraj and Vishal, NDA’s Rama Nishad is getting the benefit of Sahni and Bhumihar votes in Aurai Assembly. Bhumihar voters were angry with outgoing BJP MLA Ramsurat Rai. On the other hand, Aftab Alam has also made inroads in Muslim votes, due to which Rama Nishad is in the lead.

Click here to read expert exit poll of 243 seats of all 38 districts of Bihar

Munna Yadav’s path is difficult in Meenapur

In Meenapur, RJD’s Munna Yadav is not getting forward votes this time like last time. According to experts, his ‘brown hair’ comment and domineering image have harmed him. This time the excitement is at its peak in Bochaha (SC) seat.

According to senior journalists Dheeraj, Vishal and Amir, there is a very tough contest going on between Baby Kumari (LJPRV) and Amar Paswan (RJD). A small difference between the two can decide victory or defeat.

The sound of defeat in Sakra

Aditya Kumar is contesting as JDU candidate in Bihar Assembly elections 2025. Former minister Ashok Chaudhary’s son may have to face defeat on Sakra seat. According to experts, the public is angry due to not doing any special work in the last term and the NDA candidate is suffering due to this.

Whereas in Kudhni Assembly, NDA’s Kedar Gupta has been accused of not working. His core voter is also somewhat indifferent this time, but still the contest here remains fierce.

Vijendra Chaudhary ahead on Muzaffarpur urban seat

Vijendra Chaudhary of Congress is leading in Muzaffarpur Nagar Assembly. According to political experts, internal opposition in BJP has harmed NDA candidate Ranjan Singh.

Ajit Kumar’s return to Kanti

JDU’s Ajit Kumar is strongly ahead in Kanti this time. Local senior journalists Dheeraj and Vishal say that despite fighting as an independent last time, Ajit Kumar had performed well, now his position has become stronger after getting the party symbol.

BJP’s Arun Singh seems to be getting lead in Baruraj. According to experts, there is no strong candidate in the fray against him, and Jan Swaraj Party is also not able to make much impact.

RJD’s Shankar Yadav seems to be getting advantage in Paru Assembly. According to journalists, NDA did not give ticket to MLA Ashok Singh for four consecutive terms, due to which local voters are angry and this anger is going in favor of RJD.

Raju Singh’s lead in Sahebganj

On Sahebganj seat, NDA’s Raju Singh is getting the benefit of his popularity among the people and constant connect with the public. Experts believe that his ground hold can give him victory.

This time the equation of power seems to be completely balanced in Muzaffarpur district. According to the exit poll, close fight on NDA 5, Grand Alliance 4, and 2 seats shows that the people of the district have not made up their mind to give absolute majority to any one party. The result of seats like Bochaha and Kudhni can change the political picture of the entire district.