West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 concluded with reports of sporadic violence. There was 93.13 percent voting in the first phase and 91.66 percent voting in the second phase in the state, which is the highest turnout since independence. Both BJP and TMC parties are claiming this record voting in their favor. Meanwhile, in the exit poll released by Today’s Chanakya on Thursday (30 April 2026), BJP is likely to get a huge majority in Bengal.

BJP has majority in Bengal: Today’s Chanakya

In today’s Chanakya exit poll, BJP is likely to get 192 seats, TMC 100 and others 2 seats. Talking about vote share, BJP can get maximum 48 percent votes, TMC can get 38 percent votes and others can get 14 percent votes. It has been claimed in the survey that the votes of backward people and Dalits have gone to BJP, while most of the votes of Muslims have gone in favor of Mamata Banerjee’s TMC party.

71 percent Muslims vote for Mamata

According to Today’s Chanakya Exit Poll, 71 percent of Muslims in West Bengal have voted for the candidates of Mamata Banerjee’s party TMC. Whereas only 8 percent Muslims voted for BJP. However, BJP has got full support from OBC and SC/ST. According to the survey, 61 percent OBC voters voted for BJP and 27 percent voted for TMC. Apart from this, 67 percent SC and 53 percent ST have voted for BJP. Whereas 22 percent SC and 40 percent ST voted for TMC.

In the West Bengal elections, BJP had made infiltrators and women’s safety the biggest issues. If these exit poll figures prove to be correct then it will prove to be a big blow for TMC. Because with her fourth consecutive victory, Mamata Banerjee can establish herself as the strongest opposition face against BJP before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

Mamata Banerjee’s big allegation against Amit Shah

TMC Chief Mamata Banerjee has alleged that on the direct instructions of Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the Central Forces were working as agents of BJP during the West Bengal elections. He said that the exit poll projections were broadcast on the instructions of BJP to demoralize Trinamool Congress workers.

Read this also: West Bengal Assembly Election 2026: CM Mamata lost sleep over the prediction of BJP’s victory, first statement after exit poll, said- I have been…

An interesting picture has emerged in the exit polls regarding Tamil Nadu Assembly elections 2026. According to the latest survey of Axis My India, film actor-turned-politician Vijay now seems to be ahead of the current Chief Minister MK Stalin in the choice for the post of Chief Minister. In the survey, 37 percent people have preferred Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay as the next Chief Minister, while MK Stalin has got the support of 35 percent people. In this way, there seems to be a tough competition between the two.

Former Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami is at third place in this race, who has got the support of 22 percent people. Only 2 percent people liked BJP leader Annamalai. Naam Tamilar Katchi leader Senthamizhan Seeman got the support of 3 percent people, while 1 percent people either chose someone else or were undecided.

Also read: Exit Poll 2026: TVK gave a shock in Tamil Nadu, NDA storm in Assam, LDF disappointed, but suspense in Bengal

Whose government will be formed in Tamil Nadu?

If we look at the rest of the exit poll data, most of the surveys are indicating that the MK Stalin-led DMK government can return to power in the state. That is, Vijay seems to be ahead in personal preference as the Chief Minister, but in the matter of forming the government, DMK is said to have the upper hand. Also, Vijay’s party TVK is expected to perform well in its first election. Estimates from different agencies do show some variation in this. According to People’s Pulse, TVK may get 18 to 24 seats, while P-Mark has estimated 16 to 26 seats. The estimate of Axis My India is different from the rest, in which TVK is said to get 98 to 120 seats, which is a very big figure.

When is voting in Tamil Nadu?

This time a new turn is being seen in the politics of Tamil Nadu, where a new party and a new face seem to be presenting a strong challenge. However, all these figures are just estimates and the real results will be known only after the counting of votes on May 4, when it will be clear who will take power in the state.

Also read: 500 companies of CAPF will remain deployed in Bengal even after the elections are over, CRPF DG informed

Many exit polls released after the elections have predicted a lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal, a hat-trick of victories in Assam and a victory for the UDF in Kerala, while a survey has predicted a major upset for actor Vijay’s party TVK in Tamil Nadu.

Leading election survey agency ‘Axis My India’ estimates that Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) may come close to forming the government in its very first election with 98 to 120 seats. If the actual results remain the same then it will be Vijay’s charismatic debut in electoral politics. This party came into existence in February 2024.

The second and final phase of voting concluded in West Bengal on Wednesday. Earlier on April 23, voting was held on 152 seats in the state. There are a total of 294 assembly seats in the state. Voting was held in Kerala, Assam and Puducherry on April 9 and in Tamil Nadu on April 23. In the survey of several election survey agencies that came on Wednesday evening regarding the West Bengal Assembly elections, the possibility of BJP getting a decisive lead or majority was expressed. However, some surveys have predicted that the Trinamool Congress government will remain intact.

• The survey of ‘People’s Pulse’ has said that Trinamool Congress can retain its power by securing 177 to 187 seats. BJP is expected to get 95 to 110 seats. Congress is expected to get one to three seats.
• According to the exit poll of ‘Janmat Polls’, Trinamool Congress may get 195 to 205 seats while BJP may have to be satisfied with only 80 to 90 seats.
• The survey of ‘Poll Diary’ estimates that BJP can come to power for the first time in West Bengal with 142 to 171 seats. According to this survey, Trinamool Congress may have to be satisfied with 99 to 127.
• The survey of ‘Matris’ says that BJP can form the government in West Bengal with 146 to 161 seats and TMC can get 125 to 140 seats and may be out of power.
• ‘P-Mark’ survey says that BJP may get 150 to 175 seats in West Bengal while TMC is expected to get 118-138 seats.

All surveys regarding Assam have predicted the victory of the BJP led alliance.

• According to the survey of ‘Axis My India’, NDA may win 88 to 100 seats and the Congress-led alliance may get 24 to 36 seats.
• The exit poll of ‘Matris’ states that the BJP-led alliance in Assam may get a thumping majority with 85 to 95 seats, while the Congress-led alliance may be limited to only 25 to 32 seats.
• According to ‘Janmat Polls’, the BJP led alliance in Assam may get 87 to 98 seats and the Congress led alliance may be limited to only 29 to 30 seats.
• The exit poll of ‘JVC’ has said that in Assam, the BJP led alliance can get a huge majority with 88 to 101 seats, while the Congress led alliance is expected to get only 23 to 33 seats. There are total 126 assembly seats in Assam.

Regarding Kerala, almost all the survey agencies have predicted the departure of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) from power and the victory of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

Also read: Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: New twist revealed in Tamil Nadu Exit Poll! The public wants to make this person the CM, not Stalin, know the name

• The exit poll of ‘Axis My India’ says that UDF may get 78 to 90 seats, while LDF is expected to get 49 to 62 seats.
• ‘People’s Pulse’ has predicted that UDF will get an absolute majority in Kerala with 75 to 85 seats. He estimates that the CPI(M) led LDF will get only 55 to 65 seats and will be out of power.
• ‘Vote Vibe’ survey says that UDF is expected to get 70 to 80 seats, while LDF may get 58 to 68 seats.
• According to the survey of ‘People’s Insight’, UDF is expected to get 66 to 76 seats and LDF is expected to get 58 to 68 seats. He has predicted that the BJP led alliance will get 10 to 14 seats. There are 140 assembly seats in Kerala.

Most surveys in Tamil Nadu have predicted a victory for the DMK-led alliance, although ‘Axis My India’ has already predicted TVK to be close to a majority in the elections. His assessment is that Vijay’s party can get 108 to 120 seats in the 234-member assembly. TVK was formed in February 2024.

• In the survey of ‘Axis My India’, the DMK-led alliance is expected to get 92 to 110 seats and the AIADMK-led NDA is expected to get only 22 to 32 seats.
• ‘People’s Pulse’ has estimated the DMK-led alliance to get 125 to 145 seats. His estimate is that NDA will get 65 to 80 seats and actor Vijay’s party Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) will get 18 to 24 seats.
• The survey by ‘Matris’ said that the DMK led alliance can retain power with 122 to 132 seats and the AIADMK led NDA is expected to get 87 to 100 seats. TVK may get 10 to 12.

Regarding Puducherry, most of the surveys predict that the All India NR Congress (AINRC) led NDA alliance may get majority.

• According to the exit poll of ‘Axis Moi India’, NDA may get 16 to 20 seats in Puducherry, while the alliance of Congress and DMK is expected to get six to eight seats. TVK is expected to get two to four seats.
• According to People’s Pulse, NDA may get 16-18 seats and Congress and DMK may get 10-12 seats.
• ‘Kamakhya Analytics’ has predicted that NDA will get an absolute majority of 17 to 24 seats in Puducherry. His assessment is that the alliance of Congress and DMK can be limited to only four to seven seats. There are 30 assembly seats in Puducherry.

Also read- West Bengal Exit Poll 2026: Big upset in Bengal, BJP close to power, according to Chanakya strategy, BJP is sure to form government!

In the exit polls after the elections in 5 states of the country, the position of the left parties appears to be quite weak. Even in the states where the Left was once considered to have a strong hold, the situation seems to be changing this time. In these five states, there was actually only two places where left parties had hope: Kerala and West Bengal. There has been a Left government in Kerala for a long time and Pinarayi Vijayan has been the Chief Minister. In West Bengal, the Left had ruled the government continuously for about 35 years, so there is a historical basis there too.

This time in the exit polls, the position of the Left in West Bengal appears to be very weak. According to the poll of polls, the left parties are seen getting only 2 seats there. Since 2016, the Left has been continuously weakening in Bengal and this time too the same trend seems to be continuing.

Also read: TVK in Tamil Nadu, BJP in Kerala and is Congress clean in Bengal? Where is the danger of zero in exit polls?

Challenge for Left in Kerala

Even in Kerala, the picture is not looking good for the Left. Where earlier the Left government was being formed, now according to exit polls the Congress led alliance seems to be ahead. It is estimated that the Left may get around 59 seats in Kerala, while the Congress alliance is expected to get around 77 seats, indicating a change in government. However, if these exit polls prove to be correct, it would mean that the Left parties may lose power even in their strongest bastion Kerala. The Left has already lost its hold in states like Bengal and Tripura, and now the situation seems to be weakening in Kerala too.

What are the exit polls indicating?

Exit polls are indicating that leftist politics in the country is shrinking much more than before. If the same trend is visible in the final results, then in the coming time the left parties will face a big challenge to re-consolidate their position.

Also read: Big success of DRDO and Navy, successful testing of Naval Anti-Ship Missile, know what is the specialty?

Exit polls of West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry have now started shaping the election picture. However, a common and decisive trend has emerged among these figures, where the participation of women has been more than that of men. Will this lead decide the power this time?

Exit polls indicate that BJP may get an edge in Bengal, although some surveys claim the comeback of Trinamool Congress. There is a possibility of BJP’s hat-trick in Assam, while in Kerala, there are signs of UDF’s return after the change of power. The biggest twist has come to light in Tamil Nadu, where actor Vijay’s party TVK can cause a big upset in its very first election with 98 to 120 seats. NDA seems to be getting lead in Puducherry. Amidst all this, one thing is clear that this time women voters have emerged as not just a number but a decisive force.

Also read: Last time it was cancelled, now it is even more special, PM Modi will go on Europe tour next month, know what is being planned?

Women’s lead: a sign of change in electoral behavior

Amidst the discussion of record 92.47 percent voting in the West Bengal Assembly elections 2026, the most important and decisive aspect was the unprecedented participation of women. According to Election Commission data, women not only voted in large numbers in both the phases, but also left men behind in percentage terms. In the second phase, the voting percentage of women voters was recorded at 92.28 percent, while this figure of men was 91.07 percent. That means women left men behind with an increase of about 1.2 percent. This difference may seem small, but in a state with such a large voter base, its impact can be wide-ranging and decisive.

The same trend was seen in the first phase also. In the voting held on April 23, 92.69 percent women voted, while the participation of men was 90.92 percent. That means women’s participation remained consistently high in both the phases. This is not a coincidence, but an indication of a permanent electoral behaviour. The importance of this trend also increases because the total number of voters in West Bengal is 6.81 crore. If the participation of women in such a large voter base is more than that of men, then it has the potential to directly decide the direction of the election results.

In other states too, women voted more than men

Assam and Puducherry also broke their respective records. 85.91 percent voting was recorded in Assam and about 90 percent voting was recorded in Puducherry, which is the highest figure there so far. Record voting was recorded in the Assam Assembly elections 2026, in which women once again left men behind. According to official figures, the total voting was 85.91%, which is the highest ever in Assam. Earlier in 2016 there was 84.67% voting and in 2021 there was 82.42% voting. This time the participation of women voters was 86.50%, which is more than 85.33% of men. Interestingly, in 2021, women voting had fallen to 82.01%, but this time a sharp jump was seen.

Women participation is more in Tamil Nadu

In Tamil Nadu too, participation of women was more than that of men, where 85.76 percent women voted, while the figure of men was 83.57 percent. Voting took place on all 234 seats in Tamil Nadu on April 23, where the total number of voters was 5.73 crore. On the same day, voting was also held on 152 seats in West Bengal, where the number of voters was 3.6 crore.

Average voting in Kerala Assembly elections

The average voting in the Kerala Assembly elections was recorded at 78.23 percent, while a deep analysis of the Election Commission’s data shows that the real story of this election is hidden somewhere in the votes of women. This time, women voters have given a new dimension to the electoral scenario by registering a decisive lead in the Kerala Assembly elections 2026. According to the Election Commission, 80.86% women voted, while the participation of men was 75.01%. This difference of about 6 percent is not just a figure, but a strong political signal.

When will the election results be declared?

The election results of five states including West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam will be declared on May 4. Exit polls are making their own claims, but this record voting has decided that the public will definitely vote for their rights. This election will be remembered not only for political power, but also for setting new parameters of democratic participation. Especially the increasing participation of women has made it clear that a new power has now come to the center in India’s electoral politics, which is not only casting votes but is also deciding the direction of the results.

Also read: Assembly Election Exit Polls: Left lags behind in exit polls! There are signs of loosening of grip in Kerala and Bengal too, know the complete figures

Exit polls of Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 are presenting a clear picture that Congress led UDF is not only ahead but also seems to be standing close to power with a comfortable lead. According to Poll Mantra’s exit poll, the estimate of 88 to 92 seats takes it much above the majority figure of 70. In comparison, the ruling LDF seems to be limited to 42 to 46 seats, which is a sign of its weakness in many areas. NDA and other parties seem to be marginalized this time too, but the story is not just about seats. The real interest is in the leadership race, where the contest still remains open and tough.

What is the wind saying on the ground?

If we talk about Poll Mantra’s exit poll, the signals coming from different parts of the state are not one-sided but definitely show a clear inclination. UDF has gained a strong hold on the narrative in the Malabar region. This increase seems to be increasing further in Central Kerala. There is definitely competition in Travancore, but it is not enough to change the picture of the entire state.

These trends clearly mean that there is no longer a close fight here, rather a clear inclination of public opinion is visible. The LDF still has some strong pockets, but the statewide wave seems to be moving away from it.

Who is making the narrative?

According to Poll Mantra, in the last 60 days the election discussion has not revolved around any one face. Many leaders have together created a political environment. In this period, KC Venugopal (21.4%) has emerged as the most influential leader, who gave direction to the narrative. After him, the influence of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan (18.6%) continues, while V.D. Satishan (16.2%) also remains close. Apart from this, leaders like Shashi Tharoor (12.5%) and Shafi Parambil (10.1%) have also registered a strong presence. Here UDF is ahead not only in seats but also at the level of discussion. At the same time, the influence of LDF seems to be mostly limited to Pinarayi Vijayan.

CM face: open and tough contest

The interesting thing is that despite such a clear lead, the picture regarding the Chief Minister’s face is not clear. According to Poll Mantra’s survey, this contest remains completely open and competitive. V.D. Satheesan is in a slight lead with 21.2%, but Pinarayi Vijayan is close behind with 20.5%. KC Venugopal is in third place with 17.8% and this makes him the ‘dark horse’ of this race. At the next level K.K. Shailaja and Ramesh Chennithala are tied with 11.2%, while Rajeev Chandrasekhar is in the contest with 10.5%.

Political signals of Kerala elections

The biggest indication is that voters are not standing behind any one face. The three top leaders are very close to each other, which means the final decision is still open. This situation can be beneficial for UDF, because it has many strong faces. Whereas LDF still seems to be more dependent on the leadership of Pinarayi Vijayan.

Also read: West Bengal Exit Poll 2026: Congress’s ‘balle-balle’ in this Exit Poll, five times the gain of seats in Bengal, TMC-BJP kept watching

The most intense political contest in recent years in the West Bengal Assembly ended on Wednesday (30 April 2026) with record voting and claims of victory. Now all the political parties are waiting for the results. This election is not just limited to who will reach the state secretariat, but it has also become a referendum on whether Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee remains the central political power of Bengal even after 15 years of rule.

A big question is whether a fourth consecutive victory can establish him as the strongest opposition face against BJP before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections or whether BJP has found a way to power in the state. The total voting in the assembly elections held in two phases was recorded at 92.47 percent. Voting was 93.13 percent in the first phase and 91.66 percent in the second. This is the highest turnout since independence.

According to the exit polls released after the second phase of voting, BJP can form the government for the first time in Bengal. Although things will become completely clear only after the results are declared on May 4, but if we talk about the exits so far, then BJP’s cause is getting support from the common people.

SIR

The biggest controversy in the elections was regarding the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter lists. Due to removal of about 91 lakh names across the state, about 12 percent voters were left out of the list. Trinamool called it a move affecting the voting rights of minorities, migrants, women and the poor, while BJP called it a process of removing fake names.

intruder

Even before the start of Bengal Assembly elections, BJP is raising the issue of infiltrators. After the first phase of voting, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said that BJP will get 110 out of 152 seats. The reason for this confidence of BJP could be its campaign based on driving out alleged illegal infiltrators, which is also visible in the exit polls. From Prime Minister Narendra Modi to every BJP worker who was going among the people for election campaign, they were openly raising the issue of infiltrators.

fear free voting

To make this election fear-free, the Election Commission had deployed several companies of central forces, due to which both the phases of voting remained largely peaceful in the entire state. ECI has also said that to prevent post-poll violence, 500 companies of central forces will remain in West Bengal till further orders even after May 4. BJP is seeing the fear-free environment and record voting in its favor.

women voters

This time BJP is also likely to get a big lead in terms of vote share in Bengal. According to Matrice exit poll, BJP can get 42.5 percent votes in this election. In this survey, TMC is expected to get about 41% votes and others are expected to get 16.7% votes. If these figures prove to be correct on May 4, then women voters will have a major contribution in BJP’s victory. According to the survey, this time 41% women voters of Bengal have supported BJP. Generally, the women voters of Bengal have been staying with Mamata Banerjee in large numbers till now. In the voting figures, participation of women voters was more than that of men.

On which issues of Mamta government were people angry?

People were also angry over the corruption, law and order and political violence that took place during the Trinamool Congress (TMC) government in West Bengal. The alleged involvement of party leaders in the teacher recruitment scam and other scams created a lot of resentment among the public. The state government was also accused of not investigating these scams honestly. BJP caught hold of these issues and went to every village and told people about it.

Also read: Exit Poll 2026 Result: From Bengal to Assam-Kerala and Tamil Nadu, know whose government in which exit poll.

Puducherry Exit Poll 2026: Different exit polls that have emerged regarding the elections for the 30-member Puducherry Assembly are now pointing towards a common trend. In the integrated analysis of poll of polls, NDA now seems to be emerging with a clear lead. The majority figure in the 30-seat assembly is 16 and most of the surveys seem to be taking the NDA beyond this figure.

seen in three agencies NDA majority figure of

If we look at the data of three major agencies – Axis My India, Peoples Pulse and Praja Poll – then the position of Bharatiya Janata Party led NDA appears strong. According to Axis My India, the NDA may get 16 to 20 seats, which puts it at or above the majority line. Peoples Pulse also shows the NDA in the range of 16 to 20 seats, while Praja Poll, giving the most aggressive estimate, is taking the NDA to 19 to 25 seats. The average indication of these three surveys is that NDA is in a position to form the government in Puducherry.

Also read: Poll of Polls Exit Poll 2026: Mamata Banerjee’s government is wavering in Bengal, BJP is getting more seats than majority.

Congress led coalition’s boat stuck in midstream

On the other hand, the Congress-led alliance seems to be lagging behind in these projections. Axis My India gives it 6 to 8 seats, while according to Peoples Pulse it may get 10 to 12 seats, this is a relatively better scenario for it. At the same time, Praja Poll’s estimate is between 6 to 10 seats. Overall, the picture looks challenging for the Congress alliance, although some surveys even show the possibility of it reaching double digits.

in puducherry TVK Limited effect may also be seen

An interesting aspect in this election is also the presence of TVK (Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam). Axis My India estimates it to get 2 to 4 seats, but both Peoples Pulse and Praja Poll do not give it any seat. This means that TVK’s role may remain limited and its influence may be limited to a few selected seats only. Talking about other parties and independent candidates, they are expected to get 0 to 3 seats. Although this number is small, in case of a close contest these seats can affect the equation of government formation.

Congress will have to expect a change in seats on the day of results.

There is definitely a difference in the figures of seats in different surveys, but the direction is the same that NDA is close to or above majority. According to political analysts, local issues, personal image of the candidate and the mathematics of limited seats increasingly influence the results in smaller states and union territories. In such a situation, even a difference of 2-3 seats can change the balance of power. At present, these exit poll trends strengthen the chances of NDA forming the government, while the Congress alliance will have to hope for an upset on the day of results.

That is, if we see, the ‘poll of exit polls’ in Puducherry seems to be giving a clear lead to NDA. According to estimates, NDA is in majority with 18 seats, while Congress seems to be limited to 9 seats. TVK is expected to get 2 seats and others will get 1 seat, due to which NDA government seems to be formed.

Also read: Explained: What position is Shashi Tharoor in the race for Kerala Chief Minister? Who wants to be made the next CM, know the mood of the public

Exit Polls Results 2026: Assembly elections were concluded in four states of the country – Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and a union territory Puducherry – with the second phase of voting in West Bengal on Wednesday (April 29, 2026). As soon as the voting is over, the exit poll data of all the states has come out, in which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is seen forming the government in two states and one union territory with a clear majority in West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.

At the same time, according to exit poll data, Congress-led alliance UDF seems to be forming the government in Kerala with absolute majority. Whereas in Tamil Nadu, the alliance led by ruling Chief Minister MK Stalin’s party DMK may once again return to power.

What are the exit poll figures in West Bengal?

This time assembly elections have been conducted in two phases in West Bengal. According to the exit poll data revealed in the survey by poll agencies, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) government, which has been ruling West Bengal for 15 years, seems to be wavering in the elections this time, while the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can form the government in the state with a clear majority.

• Matrix – BJP may get 146-161 seats, TMC may get 125-140 seats, others may get 6-10 seats.
• Chanakya Strategies – 150-160 seats for BJP, 130-140 seats for TMC, 6-10 seats for others.
• Praja Polls – BJP 178-208, TMC 85-110, others 0-5 seats.
• Poll Diary – BJP 142-171, TMC 99-127, others 5-9 seats.
• P-Mark – 150-175 seats for BJP, 118-138 seats for TMC, 2-6 seats for others.
• People’s Pulse – BJP may get 95-110, TMC may get 178-189 seats, others may get 1-3 seats.

BJP gets clear majority in Assam, Congress lags behind

According to exit poll data, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam seems to be returning to power once again. At the same time, the opposition Congress party seems to be lagging behind in this electoral field.

• Matrix – BJP may get 88-98 seats, INC may get 22-32 seats, others may get 3-5 seats.
• Chanakya Strategies – 85-95 seats for BJP, 25-32 seats for INC, 6-12 seats for others.
• Poll Diary – 86-101 seats for BJP, 15-26 seats for INC, 3-7 seats for others.
• Axis My India – BJP 88-100, INC 24-36, Others 0 seats.

Also read: Assam Exit Poll: NDA’s strong comeback in Assam, Congress defeated in front of Himanta magic

Stalin government returning again in Tamil Nadu?

According to exit poll data, the ruling DMK government of Chief Minister MK Stalin may once again return to power in Tamil Nadu. According to the survey data of Matrice, the opposition AIADMK seems to be giving competition to MK Stalin’s party. Whereas Thalapathy Vijay’s party TVK is expected to get 98-120 seats according to India Today-Axis My India.

• Matrix – DMK 122-132, AIADMK 87-100, TVK 10-12, Others 10-18 seats.
• Chanakya Strategies – 145-160 seats for DMK, 50-65 seats for AIADMK, 00 for TVK, 18-26 seats for others.
• Poll Diary – DMK 148-168, AIADMK 61-81, TVK 00, Others 01-09 seats.
• Praja Poll – DMK 148-168, AIADMK 61-81, TVK 00, Others 01-09 seats.
• India Today-Axis My India – DMK 92-110, AIADMK 22-32, TVK 98-120, Others 00 seats.

Congress may get power in Kerala

At the same time, according to exit poll data, this time Congress Party led UDF alliance may get power in Kerala. Whereas the ruling leftist alliance LDF seems to be lagging behind in the election results.

• Matrix – LDF+ 60-65, INC+ 70-75, BJP 00, Others 05-09.
• Chanakya Strategies – LDF+ 58-64, INC+ 72-80, BJP 00, Others 03-07 seats.
• People’s Pulse – LDF+ 55-65, INC+ 75-85, BJP 00-03, Others 00 seats.
• India Today-Axis My India – LDF+ 49-62, INC+ 78-90, BJP 00-03, Others 00 seats.

Who is getting majority in Puducherry??

According to exit poll data in the Union Territory of Puducherry, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is forming the government with a majority. Whereas the Congress party seems to be lagging behind in the electoral field.

• Praja Poll – BJP+ 19-25, INC+ 06-08, Others 00 seats.
• India Today-Axis My India – BJP+ may get 16-20, INC+ may get 06-08, others may get 03-07 seats.

Also read: Signs of reshuffle in power in Kerala after 10 years, majority in favor of Congress, what do the data of ‘Poll of Polls’ say

The exit polls of Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 are pointing towards an extraordinary political moment, where the superstar of the film industry seems to be transforming into a serious political contender. The rise of TVK (Tamilga Vetri Kazhagam) and the popularity of Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar, popularly known as Thalapathy Vijay, have posed for the first time a concrete challenge to the state’s traditional DMK versus AIADMK politics. This is not just the mathematics of seats, but a sign of change in the narrative of power.

According to Axis My India exit poll, TVK can reach between 98 to 120 seats i.e. close to or above the majority. An even more important indication on the question of leadership is that Vijay has been declared the first choice of 37% of the people as the Chief Minister, which makes him ahead of the current Chief Minister M.K. Keeps ahead of Stalin. This increase shows that Vijay’s image is being accepted beyond that of a ‘star’ to a ‘decisive leader’. If the results confirm these trends, then 2026 could prove to be the turning point in Tamil Nadu politics where ‘The Master’ makes his mark not just on screen but also in the corridors of power.

From stardom to political capital

Vijay’s films have created a socio-political narrative over the years. His films showed the voice against corruption, the fight of the common man, and the courage to confront power. This narrative seemed to be translating into votes in the 2026 elections. Exit polls indicate that his on-screen ‘mass’ appeal has translated into off-screen political support, especially among urban and young voters.

Anti-establishment wave

The politics of Tamil Nadu has been revolving around two poles for a long time. In this election, a part seemed to want to get out of that permanent conflict. Vijay presented himself as the ‘third option’ in which he was neither a part of the traditional power nor of the old opposition structure. The rise of TVK is believed to be the result of this mood.

Equalization of vote share, increase in seats

In the exit polls, both DMK+ and TVK seem to be getting around 35% vote share. However, TVK’s lead in seat projections shows that the party performed better in ‘swing seats’, where even small vote differences decide victory or defeat. This indicates that Vijay’s appeal was not limited to just gathering crowds, but was successful in influencing the decisive seats.

If you get power then the test will be big

Amidst all this, an important question remains whether this Vijay Factor will be able to transform into a permanent organization? DMK and AIADMK have been based on strong grassroots networks for decades. The real test for TVK will begin after government formation, which will include policy decisions, administrative capacity and expansion of the organization.

The politics of victory is now on the threshold of becoming a system rather than a symbol. His image is that of a ‘mass hero’, but governance is not run through ‘mass appeal’ but through institutional efficiency. If exit poll indications prove correct, Vijay will face the challenge of translating his popularity into policy and administration.

In Tamil Nadu politics, the word ‘Thalaiva’ is not just a symbol of popularity but also a symbol of leadership. Exit poll data shows that Vijay has moved towards this status. This election is not just the story of the rise of one party, but of a change in which voters want to give a chance to new faces, new language and new politics.

Also read: Vijay’s political debut in Tamil Nadu is explosive! TVK figures surprised in exit poll