As soon as the news of the US-Iran peace agreement came on June 4, oil prices fell in the global market. On June 15, the rupee in India jumped from 95.11 to 94.65 against the dollar. There was a rise in the stock market, but the real question is that when will it affect the pockets of the common man, when will petrol and diesel become cheaper, when will domestic LPG cylinders be available at lower prices and when will there be relief from inflation? You will know in the explainer…

As soon as the news of the peace agreement came on June 14, oil prices fell in the global market. Its immediate impact was seen in India on June 15:

• Rupee strengthened: On June 15, the rupee jumped from 95.11 to 94.65 against the dollar, which is its strongest level since May 8. Due to this the cost of imported crude oil has started reducing. Experts estimate that the rupee may reach the level of 93-94 in the coming days.
• Stock market boom: Oil-gas stocks rose and buying increased in sectors like IT, banking, metal. On June 15, Sensex and Nifty rose by about 2%.

But the real question is when will the common man see the impact?

The answer is not yet, because the oil companies had increased the prices of petrol and diesel in the first week of June itself. On June 9, petrol became costlier by Rs 7.5 to Rs 8 per liter and LPG cylinder by Rs 29. Now it will take some time for the new prices to take effect.

First relief expected in 2-4 weeks

This will be the period when the first wave of decline in prices may occur. This means oil may become cheaper by Rs 4-5. Oil companies review prices every 15 days. As soon as Hormuz opens and the process of lifting the American blockade begins, the landed cost of crude oil will start decreasing. In April-May this cost had reached $ 110 per barrel. After the agreement it has come down to around $84.

When the cost burden of companies will reduce, they can reduce the prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 4-5 per liter in the next price review (first week of July).

Will companies not maintain profits?

This can happen, but there will be pressure on the government to ensure that relief reaches the common man. Last time in March, the government had reduced excise duty by Rs 10 per litre, but the companies did not pass the benefit on to the customers. This time the circumstances are different. Companies can provide relief to customers from government pressure.

LPG cylinder: Expected to become cheaper by Rs 30-50 in the first week of July

The situation is a little different here. In June, the price of 14.2 kg cylinder in Delhi became Rs 942. Now its current price has exceeded Rs 1,600 and the government is giving a subsidy of about Rs 700 on every cylinder. After the peace agreement, Saudi CP (global price of LPG) will fall. In the last few months, it had increased from $ 542 per tonne to $ 790. When prices normalize, the cylinder rate may decrease by Rs 30 to Rs 50.

In 1-3 months (late July to September): Second wave in prices

By this time, import-export of oil from Hormuz will almost be restored. The US blockade will have been completely lifted, the mines will have been cleared and shipping insurance premiums will have returned to normal. But oil will not go back to $70.

Experts say that even if Hormuz is fully opened, crude oil is unlikely to return to pre-war levels of $70-72 per barrel. Due to changes in geopolitics and supply chain, it is estimated to be around $ 92-95 per barrel in the entire financial year 2026-27.

With this, India’s annual oil import bill may increase to $ 180 billion, which was about $ 70 billion before the war.

This clearly means that even if the prices decrease, they will never return to the old level. In February 2026, petrol was around Rs 96 per liter, now it is in the range of Rs 102-108. This will be the new ‘normal’.

In 3-6 months (September-December): Impact on inflation and other things

This is the real test. Oil prices have a direct impact on everything including food, clothing and rent. Retail inflation (CPI) increased to 3.93% in May 2026, which was the highest level in about 15-16 months. The base year of the Retail Price Index has changed, but the rate of 3.93% is a high of about 15 months in the previous series. Wholesale inflation (WPI) was even more shocking, reaching 9.68% in May. This means that the costs of the producing companies had increased significantly and they had to pass that burden on to the customers in the coming months.

According to the big rating agency CRISIL, CPI inflation will be on average 5.1% in the entire financial year 2026-27. If after the agreement, oil prices stabilize at the level of $80-85, then this estimate may come down to 4.5-4.8%. But if oil remains at $95 per barrel, it will remain at 5.1% only.

When will we get relief from inflation?

According to experts, it will be available in three phases:

• Phase 1 (July-August): First of all commodity prices will fall. Things like metals, plastics and chemicals will become cheaper. But it will not directly affect your pocket.
• Phase 2 (August-September): The effect of cheaper raw materials will start becoming visible in the wholesale market. Companies will gradually reduce production costs.
• Phase 3 (October-December): The common consumer will start getting the impact. There may be a softening in the prices of packaged food, soap-detergent, clothes and other items around the festive season.

Why will it take so long to get everything back on track?

The reopening of Hormuz and the agreement is a huge relief, but it does not mean that everything will be cheap next week. Four major hurdles still remain:

• Israel’s threat: Just before the signing of the US-Iran peace deal, Israel attacked Hezbollah in Beirut. If this tension continues, Iran could again target the strait or damage tankers.
• Nuclear Talks: After June 19, talks are to be held on Iran’s nuclear program during 60 days. Iran has 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity, just one step away from weapons-grade levels. If these talks fail, the deal could fall apart again.
• Global Supply Chain: The 107-day war had badly disrupted the world’s supply chain. Tankers had diverted, insurance premiums had increased and many ships were stranded. It will take at least 2-3 months for it to become normal. Even the sitting Chief Economists are estimating the rupee to remain between 93-94 next year.
• Burden on government exchequer: As prices fall, the government will be faced with a dilemma whether it should increase its revenue by increasing excise duty or allow prices to fall? According to CRISIL, every $10 increase in oil prices increases India’s oil import bill by $13-14 billion. There is also an increase of 0.55-0.60% in inflation. In the last three months, there has been an increase of Rs 7.5 on petrol-diesel and Rs 89 on LPG. The government would like to provide some relief, but there should be no loss to the treasury.

All this hinges on the hope that the peace agreement is successful on June 19, America lifts its blockade on time and there are no major obstacles in the 60-day nuclear talks. Any new war or sanctions could turn everything upside down again. That is why we say that the agreement has given a new hope, but hope does not cause prices to fall immediately. That requires patience – maybe a few weeks or a few months.

Do you remember that morning of 28 February 2026, when America and Israel together started sudden attacks on Iran? That day, the world’s largest economy and one of the largest oil powers left no stone unturned to destroy each other. Now this war ended with a peace agreement on 15 June 2026. Exactly 107 days later, but whatever happened in these three and a half months made it difficult for the world to even breathe. We understand every loss of life and property caused in this war. These are those figures, seeing which you yourself will say – ‘Enough, no more…’

Human havoc: How many lives were lost and how many were scattered?

If there is any painful face of war, it is the blood of civilians. First of all, let’s talk about those people who were sleeping in their homes, in school classes or just living their daily lives. The oldest data, media reports from March 15, 2026, show that in the first ten days alone, 390 civilians had died and 3,910 soldiers were also killed. The most tragic attack took place on Shajareh Tayyebeh Girls School in Hormozgan province, where 175 innocent girls were killed in an American airstrike.

On the third day, the US Human Rights Agency reported that 85 civilians and 11 soldiers were killed in Iran. By April 26, this figure had become even more dire. According to Iranian media, by then 3,468 people had been killed. Of these, 40% were civilians, while more than 34,000 people were injured. This number had increased further within a month, when by April 1,937 more people had died.

After the war, in June 2026, American intelligence agencies estimated that a total of 2,211 people were killed and more than 22,000 were injured. But the biggest thing is that 3.9 million (39 lakh) people became homeless inside Iran.

Different websites have different opinions on the death toll in the US-Iran war. According to Iran Cost Ticker, more than 5 thousand Iranian soldiers and 1,508 Iranian civilians were killed, while more than 21 thousand people were made homeless. America has spent 1.12 trillion dollars so far.

What was the loss of which country involved in the war?

• Iran lost the most people: At the beginning of the war, American-Israeli bombings killed 1,444 people. What was somewhat objectionable was that after this, many big people including the commanders of Iran were also targeted in Bandar Abbas. Till a day ago, these figures were constantly changing, but the biggest loss was the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This was the world’s biggest intelligence incident.
• Israel and America’s response: In response, Iran fired missiles across Israel under ‘Operation True Promise 4’. In this, 15 Israeli citizens were killed and more than 3,300 were injured. At the same time, on the American side, 13 soldiers were killed and 200 soldiers were injured. On March 18, Iran claimed that the US had suffered 3,200 casualties, although this was mere propaganda.
• Greatest sorrow: In March itself, America launched its largest aircraft carrier ‘USS Gerald R. Ford was the victim of a fire, where many of its cabins were destroyed. America wanted the news not to be published, but CNN released the pictures.

Billions of dollars: Whose pockets did the war burn?

If the world imagined that the entire global economy was a supertanker, then the Strait of Hormuz was the veins under its skin. This war broke these nerves. According to Iran War Cost Tracker:

• End of global GDP: This war has caused a loss of 2.2 trillion dollars (about Rs 2.3 million crore) to the entire world economy every year. If there was no agreement and the war continued, this loss would have increased further to $3.5 trillion.
• Destruction of the Middle East: Just one month after the war, the conflict between America and Iran caused a loss of between 120 billion dollars to 194 billion dollars to the economy of the Middle East. This is more than the growth of that entire area in the entire year 2025.
• Closing of Hormuz: The biggest economic blow was the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of the world’s oil and gas was transported through this route. As soon as the traffic stopped from here, the price of crude oil skyrocketed. Oil price was 70-72 dollars per barrel in February, which reached 119 dollars due to war.

Three Indian sailors died and the economy deteriorated.

India became the center of this war when three sailors were killed in the American attack. On the intervening night of June 9-10, 2026, the US Central Command fired rockets at the Palau-flagged tanker MT Settebello. There were 24 Indians on board this ship. There was a stampede after the attack. 21 Indians survived, but three – Shivanand Chaurasia (Uttar Pradesh), Aditya Sharma (Himachal Pradesh) and Chief Engineer Patnala Suresh (Vizag) could not survive.

America claimed that it had warned the tanker 60 times during the blockade, but it did not listen. India summoned the American Ambassador and protested strongly and demanded an investigation. Even before this, MT Marivex and MT Jalveer were also attacked.

The economic impact on India was also no less. India imports 88% of its crude oil needs, about 50% of which comes from Gulf countries via Hormuz. Due to increase in oil prices, India’s GDP growth estimates came down from 6.9 percent to 6.5 percent. The Chief Economic Advisor warned that if the situation worsens, it may go below 6%.

Military disaster: How much did the Iranian Navy suffer?

Another big chapter of the war was of military equipment. The American attacks were so severe that according to a BBC report, attacks were recorded on 51 military sites. These included Iran’s Air Force bases, Naval facilities and IRGC compounds. The attacks on Bandar Abbas Naval Base were so terrible that not only Iranian warships were destroyed, but the entire port structures collapsed.

US President Trump claimed that he has ‘annihilated the Iranian Navy’. According to his claim, 158 ships were destroyed. At the same time, the Central Command announced the sinking of at least 17 Iranian warships.

What happened to the ships of the world?

Merchant navies from all over the world were stuck on the way to Hormuz. 10% of VLCCs (very large crude oil tankers) alone were stuck, resulting in a crisis of about 20 million barrels of oil. The American blockade destroyed 8 ships, but 134 more ships had to be diverted, causing freight costs to skyrocket.

How much devastation before the final peace agreement?

On June 14, 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social, ‘Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow. A peace agreement is going to be signed between America and Iran on June 19. But just before this, once again in history, a massacre of children took place. On June 14, 21 children and 4 women were killed along with Hezbollah commanders in an Israeli attack on Beirut. Perhaps a lesson should be learned from here that when some people take decisions with weapons, innocent children are the first to get burnt.

1,000 billion dollar expenditure and more than 5,000 deaths

This war was enough to tell the world that weapons are never the solution. In 107 days, more than five thousand people were killed, property worth billions of dollars was destroyed and inflation skyrocketed in markets around the world. When the pen moves in Geneva on June 19, there will be hope. But at the same time, it was also remembered that in the smoke of war, only the dead bodies of innocent children and broken families remain.

Just before the signing of the US-Iran peace agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu carried out an airstrike on Beirut. Due to this, US President Donald Trump became furious with anger. He said to Netanyahu on the phone, ‘What are you doing?’ And then called him a ‘very difficult person’. Now questions are echoing throughout the Middle East whether America can really pat its staunchest ally Israel on the back and leave it alone. If this happens, will a small country like Israel be able to maintain its power or will the streets of Jerusalem once again witness a war of occupation?

Why is Israel dependent on American help?

America provides the largest military assistance to Israel. Under an agreement signed in 2016, the US agreed to provide $38 billion to Israel from 2019 to 2028. Every year this aid worth about 3.8 billion dollars reaches Israel. Not only this, in 2025 the Biden administration had also approved an additional $8 billion military aid package. In other words, American aid is about 15% of Israel’s total defense budget. Don’t make the mistake of considering it small, because enemies try to use this difference to their advantage.

Can Israel defend itself alone?

Israel has its own magnificent army, but without American resources it will be difficult for it to fight a long war. Army Chief Harji Halevi has claimed that he is ready to attack Iran and knows how to work alone, but the reality is that Israel is not dependent only on technical help. During the 2023-24 war alone, the US also deployed its THAAD air defense system to Israel, meaning US troops directly participated in Israel’s defense.

Israel is dependent on American industry for everything from planes to military equipment. Israel’s 334 fighter planes, which form the backbone of its military, are all made in America. Apart from this, the US Congress has passed proposals to increase military cooperation with Israel in the 2027 defense budget. There is also a plan to connect their intelligence agencies with each other. If America retreats, this whole problem will unravel.

Will Israel not be able to survive alone and will Jerusalem also go hand in hand?

Yes, because not only will military aid stop, but the shield protecting Israel at the international level will also be removed. America often vetoes resolutions against Israel at the United Nations and other international forums. If America withdraws its hand, the world can impose more sanctions and pressure on Israel. This would directly mean that the most powerful supporter who has given recognition to Israel’s claim on Jerusalem in the international community will no longer stand with it. Without US support, Israel will have to fight on multiple fronts and maintaining control of existing areas will become more difficult.

What is the reason for the decline in American support?

There are two major reasons for the decline in American support:

1. Changes in American public and politics

According to a Pew Research report, most people in America no longer like Israel. The situation is even more serious in the Democrat Party. Among very liberal voters, 70% view Israel more negatively than Iran or China. In 2026, 47 Democrat senators voted in favor of stopping arms sales to Israel. That is, there is a big voting block ready within America itself which wants to stop the money being received by Israel.

2. Israel itself wants American support to end

Netanyahu himself wants US military aid to be brought to zero in the next ten years. He argues that Israel’s economy is about to reach $1 trillion and that aid is now becoming wasteful. American lawmakers also say that now there is a need to strengthen relations further, where instead of one-sided assistance, both are partners of each other.

What will happen if American support is withdrawn?

Israel will suffer 4 major losses due to stoppage of American aid:

• Economic Dependence: US aid still accounts for between 8 and 15% of Israel’s own defense budget. Although it was more than 25% in the 1970s, it is still a large amount. Removing it could cause the entire defense system to collapse.
• Technical Dependencies: Israel has 39 stealth fighter jets like F-35, which are completely dependent on American technology. As American aid decreases, the parts and weapons of these planes will also be in danger.
• Shortage of Interceptor: To deal with the threats from Hezbollah and Iran, Israel has to intercept dozens of missiles every day. For this a system like Iron Dome is required. The US Congress has already reduced its funding from $110 million to $60 million in 2026.
• Danger of spying networks: If relations deteriorate, America may also stop providing intelligence information to Israel. The US Defense Intelligence Agency has raised the threat level to Israel to ‘critical’, meaning there is a possibility of espionage against it.

Changing world: Not just Israel, but America is thinking for itself

The Trump administration clearly says that the nuclear deal with Iran is in America’s interests, whether Israel likes it or not. Vice President JD Vance has openly said in an interview to Fox News, ‘Israel may not be happy with this, but this agreement basically serves America’s interests.’ Additionally, former Trump official Joe Kent has suggested that if the US wants to save the deal with Iran, it should completely stop aid to Israel. These are no longer hints, but open indications.

Will Israel’s troubles end or are they just beginning?

According to experts, Israel is still a big military power, but America is as important for it as its foundation is for a fort. American aid is not just money, but it is its biggest source of technological edge, diplomatic security and trust. Amidst Trump’s threat and Netanyahu’s increasing difficulties, it is clear that America-Israel relations are no longer the same as before. If America pulls out, Israel’s military capabilities will be deeply affected and the times to come may bring major changes for the Middle East.

‘Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow…’ On June 14, 2026, US President Donald Trump informed the world by writing this post on Truth Social. A ceasefire agreement has been reached with Iran. With this, the US-Iran war that has been going on for 107 days will stop and the path to 20 percent of the world’s oil supply will open again. On June 19 (Friday), both the countries will formally sign this Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Geneva, Switzerland. This was announced by Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government had mediated the backchannel talks for the past several weeks. Will oil tankers start running in the strait at 12 noon on Friday or will it take months for the global supply chain to return to normal? Let us understand in the explainer…

First of all, let us know how much time will it take for the supply chain to become normal?

Trump has announced that the Strait of Hormuz will open. But foreign affairs expert and BHU professor Priyankar Upadhyay says, ‘It is not that thousands of tankers will start running again at 12 noon on Friday. It may take a week to several months for the actual supply chain to become normal. Let’s understand this deorbit timeline:

• Before the signing (14-19 June): Iran is still adamant on its conditions. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazim Gharibabadi said, ‘We have included all our major demands in the draft. This document is not a sign of trust in Washington. The 60-day talks will start only when we are confident that America has fulfilled its promises. The US administration has indicated that preparations for removing the mines will be done by Friday.
• First 7 days of deal (19-26 June): As soon as both sides sign on June 19, the US Navy will immediately lift its blockade. Also, Iran will get immediate relief from oil sanctions. However, VLCC tankers will start moving out of the interior of the Persian Gulf within a few hours. First of all, those tankers which are already loaded and were strategically stopped in the Gulf will come out first. Experts believe that if all technical and administrative issues are resolved, the first tanker can exit the strait in 2-3 days, but large-scale traffic may take a week.
• Days 7 to 30 of the deal (June 26-July 19): The biggest hurdle is mines. American officials allege that Iran had laid mines at many places in the strait during the conflict. Only once the Navy’s path is cleared, private tankers will be able to pass through. Trump wrote, ‘The strait will open for the purpose of removing mines with the signing of the deal on Friday.’ Therefore, this is not a normal re-opening. The agreement with Iran will bring back the confidence of the companies. The shipping insurance premium which was skyrocketing for the last three months will gradually become normal.
• 30 to 60 days (July 19-August): America will have to fulfill all its promises. Although oil prices may fall sharply initially, if there is a delay in clearing mines or there is an impasse in nuclear negotiations, prices may rise again. Experts believe that if there are no further attacks or tension increases, the shipping volume could reach the pre-war level of 140 per day in three to four months (September-October 2026).

There remains a warning that in the event of a new military operation by Israel in Lebanon, Iran could decide to close Hormuz again or target tankers, which could again put the global economy at risk.

How big a relief is this deal for India?

India is the third largest oil importer in the world. Before the war started, India used to import more than 88% of its crude oil requirement. Half of it came from the Gulf countries, which passes through Hormuz. India also imports 60% of LPG gas for domestic consumption, of which 90% comes through Hormuz. Half of the demand for LNG gas also depends on imports, of which 65% came from Qatar and UAE. Due to the war, all of them were in deep trouble.

But after this deal, there are three big immediate reliefs for the Indian government:

• Petrol and diesel prices will fall soon: At the peak of the war, the price of Brent crude had reached the level of $ 119 per barrel, which was $ 70-72 in February. As soon as Trump announced the deal, Brent crude fell 4% to around $84 per barrel. The prices of petrol and diesel in India were increased in May. The price of petrol and diesel increased by about Rs 7.50 per liter, CNG by Rs 6 per kg and LPG cylinder by Rs 89. Experts estimate that if oil prices remain stable at $84 or go below that, the government may soon cut the prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 2 to Rs 5 per liter. At the same time, the price of cylinder may decrease by 30 to 50 rupees.
• Less pressure on rupee: According to estimates by global analytical company CRISIL, every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices increases India’s oil import bill by $13-14 billion. Due to fall in oil prices, India will need less dollars, which will strengthen the rupee.
• Reduction in inflation: According to CareEdge economist Revati Kasture, every $10 increase in crude oil prices increases India’s headline inflation by 55-60 basis points (0.55-0.60%). If the price of oil falls then inflation will start decreasing in the same proportion. This is a big relief for crores of families who are currently struggling with the burden of subsidy of Rs 650 crore per day.

Will India be able to get Iranian oil back?

India has made a lot of changes in its oil import list in the last few months. According to the Petroleum Ministry, the purchase of crude oil from non-Hormuz sources like Russia, Latin America and Africa increased from 55% to 70% in April-May 2026. Whereas there was a situation of decline in imports. But after this agreement, the possibility of return of Iranian crude oil has opened.

According to the draft MoU, the US will ‘exempt Iranian oil sanctions for a specific period.’ This means that India will be able to import oil directly from Iran, which has traditionally been beneficial for India. However, it is not yet clear for how many days this exemption will be and what will be its conditions.

Can the atmosphere worsen again?

It is also true that this agreement is delicate. According to Priyankar Upadhyay, there are still many questions left in this deal:

• The biggest threat is Israel. Trump clearly said that he is angry with Netanyahu and said that ‘Israel should not carry out any more attacks in Lebanon, especially on a day when we were very close to a peace agreement.’ Although the deal held, if Israel starts any military action again, Iran or Hezbollah could respond immediately.
• The Iranian Supreme National Security Council has also made it clear that ‘until America gives assurance of fulfilling its promises, the final talks will be postponed.’ This means that until the money comes to India’s account, there is no trust.
• Furthermore, Trump himself claims that ‘Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons.’ But according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has 440.9 kg of uranium which is enriched to 60% purity. This is only one technological step away from weapons-grade (90%) level. If no solution is found on this within 60 days, this deal may fall apart again.

Engines have started, but speed will increase slowly

Donald Trump’s ‘Ships of the World, Start Your Engines’ has raised a new hope. From people standing in lines at petrol pumps to oil traders, everyone is heaving a sigh of relief. However, the opening of the strait does not just mean the movement of tankers, but also includes the cleaning of mines, normalization of insurance rates and the return of Iranian oil. It will take some more time for the world’s supply chain to return to normal, but at least this is a start.

Be it the common man who is wondering whether his gas cylinder bill will come down this month or not, or the Indian shipping worker standing on the Malabar coast who will be able to sail towards the Gulf to earn money again. This deal can prove to be a boon for everyone.

The sea area from the Oman coast to the Strait of Hormuz has turned red with blood these days. In the last three days, three different ships carrying Indian sailors have been attacked one after the other. First the American army targeted one tanker, then attacked another and now the third ship also caught fire. So far three Indian sailors have died in these attacks. The Indian government took strict action and expressed its displeasure by summoning the American diplomat. Why is this happening, is it the effect of America-Iran war and how big is this problem for India?

First attack (8 June): accurate hit on MT Marivex

The first attack took place on 8 June. Palau Islands-flagged tanker MT Marivex was attacked by US forces. There were 24 Indian sailors on board this ship. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that they carried out this attack because the ship was going towards Iran in violation of the US blockade. No Indian sailor died in this attack. All 24 sailors were rescued safely with the help of Omani authorities.

According to the Central Command, an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter aircraft fired a precision missile at the engine and steering part of the ship. The ship will no longer be able to go to Iran.

Second attack (9–10 June): Deadly attack on MT Setebelo

The most dangerous and painful attack took place on the intervening night of 9-10 June. The Palau-flagged tanker MT Setebello was again attacked by the US military. This time the situation was more serious. There were a total of 24 Indian sailors on the ship. The US Central Command once again said that the ship did not follow American orders and was carrying oil from Iran.

American fighter plane fired an accurate missile into the engine room of the ship. There was a stampede after this attack. The ship caught fire and started sinking. 21 Indian sailors were rescued by Omani authorities, but three sailors went missing. Indian Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal later confirmed that all three were killed and that their bodies had been recovered.

Central Command posted on This attack is being described as the first case of death of sailors under the American blockade.

Third attack (11 June): MT Jalveer fire

On June 11, Guinea-Bissau-flagged tanker MT Jalveer ran aground near Shinas port in Oman. There were about 20 Indian sailors on this ship. It is not officially clear whether it was an attack or some other incident, but a fire broke out in the engine room of the ship. The Indian Embassy has confirmed this and contacted Omani authorities. After this incident, the sea route has become even more dangerous for Indian sailors.

Why are these attacks happening on Indian ships?

The real reason for these attacks lies in the ongoing war between America and Iran. Come, let us understand the complete mathematics:

• 28 February 2026: America and Israel started the war by attacking Iran.
• Iran’s action: ERan immediately closed the Strait of Hormuz. This route is the main source of supply of 20% of the world’s oil and gas.
• American Blockade: From April 13, America imposed a blockade on every ship going to Iranian ports. America says that no ship can carry oil from Iran.
• Action so far: The US has destroyed 8 ships, diverted 134 ships and allowed only 42 humanitarian aid ships to go.

When a ship tries to break the American blockade, the American military attacks it. This is the reason why these ships with Indian sailors also came under target.

What does India want?

The Indian government is adopting a very strict stance in this entire matter, but very thoughtfully. Because on one hand there are good relations with America, on the other hand the lives of Indian sailors are also at risk.

The very next day (June 10) of the attack, India called US Ambassador Jason Meeks to the Ministry of External Affairs and lodged a strong protest. Nagaraj Naidu, Additional Secretary (America) of the Ministry of External Affairs, talked for about 30 minutes and made it clear that threatening the lives of Indian sailors will not be tolerated.

India also raised this issue in the UN Security Council. India’s permanent representative Harish Parvatneni said, ‘We are strongly against attacks on merchant ships. Many of our citizens work in this area and their lives are in danger.

India’s three main demands:

1. Targeting of merchant ships and civilian infrastructure should be stopped immediately.
2. Movement on international waterways should be restored free and without hindrance.
3. A diplomatic solution to this entire crisis should be found and tension should be reduced.

The Indian government has also said that the attacks on merchant ships are a result of the ongoing conflict in the region.

Why have difficulties increased for India?

This situation has become difficult for India on three fronts:

First difficulty: lives of Indian sailors

Indian sailors have the largest number in the world. According to data from the Indian Shipping Ministry, the proportion of Indians among sailors working on global merchant ships is about 15-20 percent. Thousands of Indian sailors work every day on the sea routes from the Gulf countries to the Strait of Hormuz. This is the reason why when the US Army attacked three ships with Indian crew between June 8 and June 11, this matter emerged as a direct challenge for India.

This is not limited to just these three ships. A total of 10 Indian citizens have been killed since the war between America and Iran started. Manoj Yadav, general secretary of Forward Seamen’s Union of India (FSUI), says that if the ships did not follow US instructions, detaining them was a viable option, not precision missile attack on them. The question is whether the American Army was not aware of the nationality of the boats? And even if it was, why a direct missile attack?

Second problem: Crisis on India’s oil supply

The Strait of Hormuz is not a common sea route. This is the route for about 20 percent of the total oil and gas transport in the world, that is, about 20 million barrels of oil passes through this route every day. Now this route has been closed due to the war between America and Iran. Iran has closed Hormuz, while America has imposed a blockade on every ship going to Iranian ports. So far, the US military has destroyed 8 ships, forced 134 ships to change course and allowed only 42 humanitarian aid ships to pass.

India imports about 88-90 percent of its total energy needs. That means nine out of every ten units of energy comes from abroad:

• Crude Oil: About 40-50 percent of India’s total crude oil needs come through Hormuz. This means that out of every two barrels, the path of one barrel passes through this dangerous strait.
• LPG: This is even more worrying. 60 percent of India’s total LPG needs are imported. 90 percent of this import comes through Hormuz. This means that every cylinder that reaches your kitchen passes through this sea route. According to government data, there are more than 33 crore active domestic LPG connections in India and more than 10 crore Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana connections. If this supply stops, everything from kitchen to politics will be affected.
• LNG: About 50 percent of India’s gas requirement is dependent on imports and 55-60 percent of that import comes through Hormuz.
• Decline in oil imports: Before the war (February 2026), India’s oil imports were 5.2 million barrels per day. In March 2026, it fell to 4.5 million barrels per day i.e. a decline of 13.5 percent. In April it fell further to 4.4 million.

The Indian government claims that the country has about 76 days of crude oil stock and 25-30 days of LPG stock. But this stock is only for emergencies. If the Hormuz crisis lasts for months, then the shortage of LPG will start after 25-30 days. The government has already increased the price of domestic cooking gas by Rs 60 per cylinder and this is just the beginning.

Third difficulty: Diplomatic crisis with America

This is a most delicate matter. On one hand, America is a major strategic partner of India and on the other hand, Indian sailors are dying in attacks by the American army. India has to walk on two tightropes simultaneously, that is, it has to protest and also save relationships.

On June 10, 2026, the Government of India summoned Jason Meeks, Deputy Chief of Mission of the US Embassy, ​​to the Ministry of External Affairs. Nagaraj Naidu, Additional Secretary (America) of the Ministry of External Affairs, talked to him for about half an hour and lodged a ‘strong protest’. India made it clear that actions that endanger the lives of Indian sailors will not be tolerated.

The US Embassy tried to calm the issue by saying that they are in touch with India and are helping in finding the missing sailors. But the real question is will America stop these attacks? No such indication has been found yet. US CENTCOM says they are enforcing the Iranian blockade and will take action against ships that do not follow instructions.

After the American attacks, India may have to rethink its foreign policy. If a friendly country can target your citizens, how much can that friendship be trusted? This question is now being raised in Indian strategic circles.

Experts say that the situation is very critical. America and Iran have started attacking each other again. On June 10 also there were attacks between the two countries. Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, while America says that it has control. The Indian government is now making a new strategy. Talks are going on at the diplomatic level.

About 100 days ago, on the morning of 28th February, when people in Tehran were busy in their routine life, suddenly fire started raining from the sky. America and Israel together launched such an attack on Iran, whose echo was heard throughout the Middle East. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the very first day. The Strait of Hormuz was closed and a war began, which US President Donald Trump described as ‘very intense’. Today it has crossed 100 days and is still not ending…

Before the war: What was going on inside Iran in January-February 2026?

About two months before the US-Israeli attack, Iran was boiling badly within itself. There was a wave of anti-government protests in the country.

• 1 January 2026 (night): Protesters overturned a car and set fire to several places outside a police station in the city of Ajna in Lorestan province. Reuters identified the place by matching satellite images. Fars News Agency reported that the mob tried to enter the police headquarters at around 6 pm.
• 8 January 2026 (night): People gathered near Tehran’s Tir Square and continuous gunfire was heard in the background. A vehicle caught fire and a person fired a flare into the sky. This footage was released on January 12, when some restrictions were lifted after a 4-day internet blackout.
• 11 January 2026 (released footage): Relatives gathered outside Tehran’s Kahrizak Forensic Medical Center to identify the bodies. Iran’s state TV also showed dozens of body bags, which it described as the work of ‘armed terrorists’.

Amidst these protests, the then Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned, ‘The Americans should know that if they start a war, it will be a regional war.’ On the same day, US President Donald Trump said in West Palm Beach, Florida, ‘Hopefully we will make a deal. If the deal is not made, then we will know whether he (Khamenei) was right or not.

Last peace effort (February 2026)

• 6 February 2026: Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi met separately with Iranian and American representatives in Muscat. Abbas Araghchi was from Iran’s side, while Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner (Trump’s son-in-law) were from America’s side.
• 26 February 2026: These meetings also took place in Geneva. Oman News Agency reported that the talks were being held in a ‘constructive spirit’, but did not yield any results. Just two days later…

War starts: 28 February 2026- ‘Operation Epic Fury’

At around 8 am (Tehran time) American and Israeli forces launched a major air and sea attack on Iran. The US Department of Defense (DVIDS) released footage showing:

• USS Gerald R. Fighter jets took off from the Ford aircraft carrier.
• Missiles were fired from ships.
• Rocket launchers and navigational planes were prepared.

Trump announced on Truth Social, ‘A short time ago, American military forces began major combat operations in Iran.’

A missile fell near Shajareh Tayyebeh Girls School in Minab city. Immediately after the attack, black smoke billowed from the school, people were screaming and debris was scattered. On February 28 itself, state media reported that at least 40 people were killed. But this figure increased to more than 160 by March 3, when body bags of dead bodies were brought to Meenab Morcha. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that they have struck Iran.

On the same day, US President Trump announced on Truth Social, ‘Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, is dead.’ A satellite image showed the Supreme Leader’s compound in Tehran heavily damaged.

Iran’s immediate counterattack

• Attack on Bahrain (28 February): The service center of the American Fifth Fleet in Manama, Bahrain was blown up by a missile. In the footage obtained by Reuters, the sound of an explosion is heard from inside the car and people are shouting ‘Oh my God’. Residential buildings also caught fire.
• Hormuz closure (1 March 2026): The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) announced in English on the radio that from now on no ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This will remain in force until further notice.
• Missile at Tel Aviv (1 March): Iran fired a missile into a residential area of ​​Tel Aviv, killing one woman and injuring several others. In the drone view, a large part of the building was seen completely damaged. “This is the price of a just war,” Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said at the scene.
• American planes shot down in Kuwait (2 March): A military plane was seen falling from the sky over Al Jahra in Kuwait, whose pilot escaped by parachute. The Kuwaiti Defense Ministry confirmed that several American planes crashed in their territory, but all crew survived safely.
• Saudi Arabia refinery attack (2 March): Aramco oil refinery in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia was attacked by drones. In the footage, heavy black smoke was seen covering the entire area.

The third day of the war and after

• Attack on US Consulate in Dubai (3 March): The footage showed that a huge cloud of smoke was rising over the American Consulate in Dubai and people were taking photos from their mobile phones.
• Secretariat of the Assembly of Experts in Qum destroyed (3 March): The secretariat of Iran’s Assembly of Experts was completely demolished in the city of Qum, south of Tehran. This is the same body that chooses the new Supreme Leader. Debris and broken buildings were seen in the footage.
• Iranian warship sinks near Sri Lanka (March 4): US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that an American submarine sank the Iranian warship IRIS Dena off the southern coast of Sri Lanka. The hospital administration of Galle city of Sri Lanka said that 87 bodies were recovered after the morning distress call.
• Sanandaj bombing (5 March): Several explosions took place at night in Sanandaj city of Kurdistan province of Iran. In the footage, fire and black smoke were seen rising into the sky.
• Smoke near Dubai Airport (7 March): A plume of smoke was seen behind the terminal at Dubai International Airport just before Emirates temporarily suspended its flights. Dubai government said that debris fell after interception.
• 6 American soldiers martyred in Kuwait (7 March): Six US Army soldiers were killed in a drone attack on a US military facility in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait. They were all from the 103rd Sustainment Command based in De Moine, Iowa. Trump himself saluted as his body was taken to Dover, Delaware.

Attacks on Iran’s fuel depot and refinery

• On March 7, Tehran’s Shahran Refinery was attacked, causing fire and dense smoke into the sky late at night.
• On March 8, a massive fire broke out at the Akdasiyeh fuel depot. NASA FIRMS detected thermal activity in that area. The Israeli army wrote on Telegram that they targeted several fuel storage facilities in Tehran.

New Supreme Leader (9 March 2026)

Iranian state TV Channel One announced that the Assembly of Experts has elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. Mujtaba is a mid-ranking cleric and has close ties to the Revolutionary Guards.

War at Sea: Oil Tankers, Cargo Ships and Blockades

• On March 12, 2026, Iran attacked oil tankers in Iraqi waters. In the footage, explosions and fire were seen in the tanker.
• On April 19, 2026, the US Navy destroyer USS Spruance opened fire on the Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Toska. According to CENTCOM, the crew did not follow warnings for 6 hours. Later the American Marine seized this ship.
• On 23 April 2026, Iranian state TV showed that the IRGC seized two container ships – MSC Francesca (Panama flag) and Epaminondas (Liberia flag) – in Hormuz. Iran alleged that they acted without permission and tampered with the navigation system.

Hezbollah and the Lebanese Front

The war was not limited to just Iran-America. Hezbollah in Lebanon started firing rockets against Israel.

• A fragile ceasefire was announced on 7 April 2026. It was decided to continue the talks, but Hezbollah was not included in it.
• On April 8, 2026, Israel bombed Beirut, killing more than 300 people in 10 minutes.
• On April 11, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf reached Islamabad. US Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were also there. But Iran said that talks would not take place unless commitments were made and sanctions were eased on Lebanon. In this way the talks almost broke down.
• On April 17, 2026, Lebanon and Israel held direct diplomatic talks for the first time in decades, but Hezbollah resumed fighting on both sides.
• On May 31, 2026, Israel carried out its deepest ground incursion in southern Lebanon in the last 25 years.
• There were continuous airstrikes on 1–7 June 2026, 11 people were killed by Israeli drones and three members of the Lebanese army were martyred.
• On June 7-8, 2026, near the 100th day, Hezbollah again opened fire on Israel. Israel attacked the southern suburbs of Beirut. Iran directly attacked Israel.
• On June 8, 2026, in the early morning, Israel carried out air strikes on the central and western parts of Iran. Iranian state TV confirmed the sound of explosions in Isfahan, Tabriz and Tehran.

What impact did this war have on the economy?

According to CNBC report,

• As soon as the war started, crude oil prices skyrocketed. The supply came to a halt due to the closure of Hormuz.
• The US stock market (S&P 500) recovered its losses after the initial fall, but the European stock markets are still under pressure as energy prices have increased.
• In the bond market, investors ran towards government bonds.
• The Trump administration described the war as necessary to ‘control oil prices’ and ‘prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon’, but experts say that if the war continues for a long time, the world could fall into recession.

European Union imposed sanctions

The European Union on Monday (June 8) imposed sanctions on two Iranian individuals and a unit of the IRGC navy:

• Mohammad Akbarzadeh- Deputy Commander (Political Affairs) of the IRGC Navy.
• Hamid Hosseini- Representative of Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters Union of Iran
• Hormuzian Provincial Command of the IRGC Navy

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kalas said, ‘The sanctions imposed on Iran are not acceptable. Who are involved in disrupting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called this step ‘political and wrong’ and said that it should not be given any importance.

Then what will happen next?

Experts believe that at present there is no firm ceasefire. Israel and Hezbollah are face to face. Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has not given any major statement yet. The US presidential election season is underway. The Strait of Hormuz is still not completely open. Oil prices are volatile and deaths among common people are increasing with each passing day.

US President Donald Trump reiterated on Monday (June 1) that Iran wants a deal. He issued his statement regarding this on the social platform. Trump wrote, ‘Iran wants a deal and it will be good for America and its allies.’ Trump also targeted opposition Democrats and some Republican leaders in the Truth Social post and called the rhetoric an obstacle to negotiations.

‘Rhetoric becomes a hindrance in talks’

He wrote, “Don’t the Democrats and some Republicans (who seem to lack patriotism) understand that when political people keep making negative comments like I should move faster, should move slower, should go to war, should not, or something else, it becomes much more difficult for me to do my job properly and to communicate?”

‘Sit comfortably, everything will be fine’

Appealing to the people to be patient, Trump expressed hope that everything will be completed in a positive manner. He said, ‘Just sit comfortably, everything will be fine in the end. It always happens like this. However, Trump’s post does not mention the new attack in defense of the Central Command and the counter-attack by the IRGC.

Tension increased between US-Iran

American Central Command, i.e. CentCom, said on Monday (June 1) that it has carried out self-defense attacks on Iran’s Goruk city and Qeshm Island. The statement issued on Twitter said that this action was taken in response to Iran’s aggressive activities. The US alleged that Iran had earlier shot down an MQ1 drone in international waters.

2 mobile phones were purchased from Pakistan, remained switched off for 4 years… Shocking revelation in Pahalgam terrorist attack

According to CentCom, the US military destroyed Iran’s air defense system, a ground control station and two one-way attack drones. It is claimed that these drones were posing a threat to ships passing through regional sea lanes. After this, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, i.e. IRGC, claimed that it had targeted the airbase used by the American side for the attack. This is the same base from where the US Army attacked the telecom tower of Sirik Island in southern Iran. However, IRGC did not reveal where this airbase was located.

Will there be war again in the Middle East? America bombed two islands of Iran, Iran retaliated in anger

US-Iran Tensions: Amidst the ongoing tension between America and Iran, the US Army has taken a major military step and fired a Hellfire missile at a commercial cargo ship. The US military claims that the ship ignored repeated warnings and tried to proceed towards an Iranian port despite the US naval blockade.

A ceasefire is in force between America and Iran, but tension still remains in the region. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned that if diplomatic efforts fail, the US military is fully prepared to take military action against Iran again.

Engine room was targeted

According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the Gambian-flagged cargo ship “Lian Star” was en route to an Iranian port via the Gulf of Oman. The US military claimed that the ship was traveling in international waters, but was in violation of the US blockade.

Centcom said that warnings were given more than 20 times overnight to stop the ship, but the ship did not respond. After this, American forces targeted the engine room of the ship by firing Hellfire missiles, due to which the speed of the ship stopped.

The ship is no longer heading towards Iran

After the attack, Centcom said that the ship is no longer heading towards Iran. However, the US Army did not give any detailed information about the current status of the ship. According to the report of the Associated Press, an American official associated with this operation said that the ship is currently in a state of drift in the Gulf of Oman and American soldiers have not taken any action after boarding it.

‘Return to your country immediately’, Amit Shah’s warning to the intruder, Chicken Neck land handed over to BSF

Sixth ship stopped under US blockade

This action has been taken under the US naval blockade started in April. According to the US military, so far six ships have been stopped while trying to break the blockade. According to the report, one of these ships was later allowed to proceed, while the route of more than 116 ships was changed and sent in other directions. On Friday, Centcom said that at least 115 ships have been diverted since the blockade came into force.

Controversy increases over Strait of Hormuz

The US imposed the blockade after Iran effectively blocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after the current conflict began. The conflict began following attacks by the US and Israel on February 28, following which there has been continued tension over maritime traffic and security in the region.

Uncertainty over the future of the ceasefire

Amidst this military action, there is uncertainty regarding the ceasefire implemented between America and Iran. The ceasefire has largely been in place since the beginning of April, but talks are now underway between the two countries for a possible extension of 60 days. There are plans to continue talks on Iran’s disputed nuclear program during this period.

Trump held a high level meeting

According to the report, US President Donald Trump held a meeting with his senior advisors in the Situation Room of the White House on Friday. However, it has not yet been decided whether any agreement will be approved to extend the ceasefire and restore maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has clarified that no final agreement has been reached yet. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Saturday that if diplomatic efforts fail, the US military is fully prepared to launch military operations against Iran again.

No matter how many claims Pakistan makes about finalizing the deal between Iran and Pakistan, it is not getting anything. Pakistan is trying to prove its role in the deal between the two countries and repair its image of promoting terrorism. Because of this, Pakistan will not shy away from betraying Iran along with America. Regarding this, PAK Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar reached America on Friday (29 May 2026).

Iran denies any deal with America

US sources have confirmed Axios’ report that the two sides had agreed to a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran’s uranium enrichment. Only after this Ishaq Dar has reached America tour. Under the deal, it has been said that ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz without toll and permission.

However, Iran’s Tasnim news agency, citing a source close to Tehran’s negotiators, said that the draft has not been finalized. It said that if any agreement is reached then Pakistan will be informed.

Trump speaking unilaterally will not lead to agreement: Iran

According to the report, Iranian sources said, ‘Any agreement will be final only when it is announced by Tehran. There will be no compromise if Trump speaks unilaterally. US Vice President JD Vance has said that both sides are close to reaching an agreement, but no agreement has been reached yet.

According to the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, Ishaq Dar and Marco Rubio will meet, in which bilateral relations will be reviewed. Apart from this, views will be exchanged on regional and global developments of mutual interest. Pakistan is not directly saying that Ishaq Dar has gone to America regarding the deal between the two countries, but the timing of his visit tells everything.

America tightened its grip on those who helped Iran

America has imposed many new sanctions, tightening the noose on the network that provides financial support to Iran’s army and IRGC. Under the ambit of these sanctions, those companies, individuals and ships were included, which were sending Iranian oil and petrochemicals to other countries. Apart from this, the US Treasury Department has also taken action against some Hong Kong companies which were involved in illegally selling Iran’s oil worth billions of dollars.

Also read: Good news for India amid America-Iran deal! Oil tanker roaring after crossing the Strait of Hormuz

Middle East Tensions: Tomorrow Thursday (May 28, 2026) it will be three months since the beginning of the war and conflict between America, Israel and Iran in West Asia. At the same time, it is going to be almost two months since the ceasefire implemented between the two sides with the aim of ending this war, but still the situation of tension between America and Iran is not ending.

Despite the ceasefire in April, attacks between Iranian and American forces have continued, due to which tension has increased in the Gulf area and the Strait of Hormuz. Along with this, the possibility of breaking of this fragile ceasefire has also increased as mediation efforts continue in Doha.

US Army launches new attacks in Southern Iran

According to Al Jazeera’s report, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) issued an official statement on Monday (May 25, 2026), saying, ‘The US military has carried out new strikes in southern Iran, targeting Iranian missile sites and boats that were reportedly trying to lay sea mines.’ CentCom said that these attacks were carried out in self-defense, so that US Army soldiers could be protected from threats from the Iranian Army.

Also read: Donald Trump is begging for a deal with Iran! IRGC claims – Oil prices have…

IRGC shoots down American drone, opens fire on jet

On the other hand, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Tuesday (May 26, 2026) that it has shot down an American drone. Along with this, firing was carried out on a jet and another drone, which had entered Iranian airspace. IRGC shared this information quoting Iran’s government media. The IRGC also said that its legitimate and definite right to respond to any violation of the ceasefire is fully reserved.

Talks continue between both sides after ceasefire, tension still persists

According to the report, on April 8 last month, America and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. However, since then Iran has maintained control over ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the global oil and natural gas supply passes. On the other hand, the US Navy has imposed a similar blockade on Iran’s ports with the aim of causing financial loss to Iran.

At the same time, after the announcement of ceasefire, talks are going on between the two sides for a complete end to the war and a long-term ceasefire, but during this time, frequent military clashes are increasing the deep distrust between the two sides.

Also read: Explained: Three months of US-Iran war completed! How Hormuz poisoned the veins of the world, all-round attack on India and the shocking report of IMF.