By Admin 
The Election Commission (ECI) announced elections for four Rajya Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir on Wednesday (September 24). According to the Numberbal in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly, the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance can win 3 seats. At the same time, BJP can get a seat.
There are a total of 90 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly, out of which two Badgam and Nagrota are currently vacant. In such a situation, the actual number of House becomes 88. It also includes Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLA Mehraj Malik, who is currently in custody under the Public Safety Act (PSA).
What is the mathematics of seats?
The NC, Congress, CPI (M) and Independent MLAs supporting the coalition are 53. The alliance consists of 41 NC, 6 Congress, 5 Independents and 1 CPI (M) MLAs.
BJP has 28 seats. Apart from this, 6 MLAs (from small parties and independents of Kashmir) are neither with BJP nor with alliance. The group consists of 3 PDPs, 1 People’s Conference and 2 Independents (Shabir Kule and Sheikh Khurshid). When connecting Mehraj Malik, this number becomes 7.
Based on the current number, the NC alliance will easily win the first two seats, as it has 53 MLAs, while the BJP has 28. If the BJP does not field candidates, then both these seats will win the National Conference alliance unopposed.
The third and fourth seats will be decided from the joint elections. The NC alliance will get 29 first preference votes for the third seat, which will save 24 second preference votes for the fourth seat. The BJP will have 28 votes, so it is in a position to win the fourth seat.
PDP, People’s Conference and Independent MLAs will not show much impact in elections as they live against both NC and BJP. There is also a possibility of cross-voting.
Which ticket contenders?
Sources in the National Conference said that Dr. Farooq Abdullah and Sajjad Kichlu are at the forefront of the party’s race.
The Congress also wants a seat as a part of the coalition. The party can field a candidate from Jammu region or send an existing MLA from South Kashmir to Rajya Sabha.
If NC decides to field candidates on the fourth seat, then it can take off a young face from South Kashmir, so that he maintained his grip, where he won 10 out of 16 seats in the last election.
The BJP can keep its strategy secret till the last time. The party can take off a former MLA or a new face. Sunil Kumar Sharma, who played an important role in BJP’s victory in the Chenab Valley, will play a major role in making the party’s election strategy.
Seats are vacant since 2021
Biennial elections for four seats of Rajya Sabha from Jammu and Kashmir will be held on 24 October. These seats are vacant since 2021. The Rajya Sabha elections for the four seats of Jammu and Kashmir are being held in the Union Territory of about one year after the assembly elections. MLAs elect Rajya Sabha members of their respective states.
Since February 15, 2021, the Union Territory does not represent the upper house of Parliament, the day Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmed Lave completed their term. Two other members, Fayaz Ahmed Mir and Shamsher Singh Manhas completed their term on 10 February the same year.
Announcing the program, the Election Commission said that the erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir state has been divided into union territories including Jammu and Kashmir (including Assembly) and Ladakh (Legislative Assembly). According to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, four current members of the Rajya Sabha representing the state of Jammu and Kashmir will be considered elected to fill the seats allotted to Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory.
All four seats were lying vacant since the end of the tenure of the existing members, as the essential electorate was not available to hold elections during the vacancies. The Commission said that after the formation of the state assembly of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, an electoral college is required to hold biennial elections. The counting of votes will take place on the evening of 24 October, one hour after the voting ends.