By Admin 
This time the monsoon arrived in the country on June 4, but after that it seems as if it has come to a standstill somewhere. Clouds are gathering and thundering, but it is not raining. The normal rainfall in the month of June across the country is 72.2 mm, but this time between June 4 and 18, only 42.1 mm rainfall has occurred, i.e. a decrease of 42 percent. The worst condition is in Central India, where the rain deficiency has reached 62 to 65 percent. The situation is even worse in Gujarat. A huge reduction of 91 percent has been recorded there. Rainfall has reduced by 79 percent in Maharashtra, 66 percent in Jharkhand and 65 percent in Chhattisgarh. The question is why is this happening? There are clouds and thunder, but why is it not raining?
Why are the clouds thundering, but not raining?
Usually, monsoon spreads over the entire country by mid-June. But this time it could not happen. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gives 5 major reasons for this:
1.El Nino: The biggest enemy
The sea water in the Pacific Ocean is warming, which is called El Nino in simple language. American weather agency NOAA had confirmed this on June 11. El Nino weakens the monsoon, which changes the direction of winds and reduces moisture. This is the biggest reason for lack of rain. IMD has also predicted the 2026 monsoon to be ‘below normal’ (about 90% of the long period average).
2. Somali jet weak: ‘pipe’ of moisture closed
The Somali jet is a strong flow of winds that carries moisture from the east coast of Africa to the Arabian Sea. This is the engine of monsoon. But this time the westerly jet stream has shifted more southwards than usual. Due to this, the eastern jet stream has been suppressed, which is necessary for cloud formation and thunderstorms. As a result, there is moisture in the air, but clouds are not forming.
3. Both branches of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are weak
Monsoon has two branches – Arabian Sea branch and Bay of Bengal branch. This time both are weak. The Arabian Sea branch is weak and scattered. Large scale clouds are not forming on the west coast. At the same time, in the Bay of Bengal branch, it is producing only sporadic thunder and lightning, but is not able to bring heavy rain.
4. Infiltration of dry air
Dry air is coming into the country from the north and north-west. This dry air has prevented clouds from forming. Clouds will form only when there is moisture, but the dry air is not allowing moisture to come in. No clouds are visible at all in large parts of Gujarat.
5. Interference of Western Disturbance
Western disturbance has kept the clouds confined to North India and the Himalayas. Clouds are gathered there, whereas there are no clouds in central India and the western coast. In the picture of INSAT-3DR satellite of June 18, the densest clouds are visible in the western Himalayas and the associated northern areas. Whereas there are no clouds in Central India, Maharashtra, Gujarat and most of the monsoon core zones.
Where and how much is the shortage of rain?
According to the latest report till June 18, 2026:
| State/Territory | Situation |
| central india | 62-65% reduction |
| Gujarat | 91% reduction |
| Maharashtra | 79% reduction |
| Jharkhand | 66% reduction |
| Chhattisgarh | 65% reduction |
| Northeast | about 40% reduction |
| south india | only 4% reduction |
| north-west | 13% more rain |
Mumbai is still dry this year despite its usual date of June 11. This could be the driest June in the last decade.
What will be the effect of less rain?
The effect of this lack of rain is not limited to just the weather. This will extend to farming, water and inflation:
- Crisis on farming: Monsoon brings 75% of the country’s rainfall. June rains are very important for sowing of Kharif crops (paddy, cotton, soybean). But due to less rainfall, farmers have to stop sowing.
- Water shortage: The level of rivers, reservoirs and ponds is falling. Water cut has started in Mumbai after 12 years.
- Fear of inflation: If crops get damaged then prices of food items will increase. Danger of food inflation: Low production will disrupt the supply of vegetables, pulses and oilseeds. Experts say that food inflation can reach the level of 5%. Just like what happened in the strong El Nino year of 2015.
- Crisis on Hydro Power: Due to less rainfall, the water level of rivers decreases and hydro power is deeply affected. The storage in KSEB reservoirs in Kerala has come down to 21 percent. Kerala government has imposed power cut from 6 to 12 midnight from June 17 to 30. There is a 14 percent rainfall deficit in the state and if the drought continues, the dams may dry up. Apart from this, the demand for electricity has increased in the entire country. The increasing use of heat and AC has taken the country’s peak electricity demand beyond 270 GW. When hydro power decreases, dependence on coal and gas will increase, due to which electricity can become expensive.
When will it rain?
The good news is that according to meteorologists, there are signs of the situation changing:
- From 20th June 2026: Humidity will start increasing over the Arabian Sea. Somali jets may become stronger.
- 22-23 June 2026: A low pressure area is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal. This is enough to advance the monsoon.
- 23 June 2026: Monsoon may advance on the west coast (Maharashtra, Gujarat).
- Around June 25th: Monsoon may reach Mumbai.
However, meteorologists say that it will be difficult to fulfill such a huge shortfall. The deficit in June could go up to 40-45 percent.
What is the opinion of experts?
IMD Director Dr. Mrityunjay Mahapatra said, ‘At present the moisture over the Arabian Sea is weak, progress is expected towards the west from June 23.’
At the same time, weather expert Navdeep Dahiya says, ‘There is no hope of improvement before June 23. There is also a possibility of formation of Super El Nino in the coming days, which may further weaken the monsoon of 2026.