Gas Pipeline: Due to the recent war between Iran and the US, there was an oil and gas crisis in India too. In the face of this crisis, the country thought of many solutions to deal with it. Meanwhile, news came that to deal with the gas shortage due to Iran war, the Indian government made a deal with Oman, under which a 2 thousand kilometer long deep-sea pipeline will be laid between Oman and Gujarat. Know what is the truth of this news.

What is the truth of the news?
In fact, recently the government agency PIB Fact Check has revealed the truth of the news of the proposal of a gas pipeline between Oman and Gujarat. The agency has shared a screenshot of a YouTube video of a news website through its official It has been told in this video that the world’s deepest gas pipeline will be laid from Oman to Gujarat. While stating the truth of this news, the agency has called it completely FAKE.

Also read: RBI News: Warning! Do not take risk to earn money easily, RBI alerted, gave 3 tips to save bank account

the claim is false
Sharing this screenshot, the agency wrote in the caption, ‘A YouTube video falsely claims that the Indian government is actively working on a deep-sea energy pipeline named Middle East-India Deepwater Pipeline (MEIDP), which will connect Gujarat to Oman and other Gulf countries. This claim is fake.

this is the truth
Along with this, the agency has said that ‘No such proposal is currently under consideration with the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. There is no active discussion on this project. Always verify such claims from official sources before sharing or taking any action on them. Apart from this, the agency has also said that suspicious material related to the Government of India should be reported on PIB Fact Check.

Also read: Daily or monthly? Know which SIP really gives bumper returns? understand math

The sea area from the Oman coast to the Strait of Hormuz has turned red with blood these days. In the last three days, three different ships carrying Indian sailors have been attacked one after the other. First the American army targeted one tanker, then attacked another and now the third ship also caught fire. So far three Indian sailors have died in these attacks. The Indian government took strict action and expressed its displeasure by summoning the American diplomat. Why is this happening, is it the effect of America-Iran war and how big is this problem for India?

First attack (8 June): accurate hit on MT Marivex

The first attack took place on 8 June. Palau Islands-flagged tanker MT Marivex was attacked by US forces. There were 24 Indian sailors on board this ship. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that they carried out this attack because the ship was going towards Iran in violation of the US blockade. No Indian sailor died in this attack. All 24 sailors were rescued safely with the help of Omani authorities.

According to the Central Command, an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter aircraft fired a precision missile at the engine and steering part of the ship. The ship will no longer be able to go to Iran.

Second attack (9–10 June): Deadly attack on MT Setebelo

The most dangerous and painful attack took place on the intervening night of 9-10 June. The Palau-flagged tanker MT Setebello was again attacked by the US military. This time the situation was more serious. There were a total of 24 Indian sailors on the ship. The US Central Command once again said that the ship did not follow American orders and was carrying oil from Iran.

American fighter plane fired an accurate missile into the engine room of the ship. There was a stampede after this attack. The ship caught fire and started sinking. 21 Indian sailors were rescued by Omani authorities, but three sailors went missing. Indian Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal later confirmed that all three were killed and that their bodies had been recovered.

Central Command posted on This attack is being described as the first case of death of sailors under the American blockade.

Third attack (11 June): MT Jalveer fire

On June 11, Guinea-Bissau-flagged tanker MT Jalveer ran aground near Shinas port in Oman. There were about 20 Indian sailors on this ship. It is not officially clear whether it was an attack or some other incident, but a fire broke out in the engine room of the ship. The Indian Embassy has confirmed this and contacted Omani authorities. After this incident, the sea route has become even more dangerous for Indian sailors.

Why are these attacks happening on Indian ships?

The real reason for these attacks lies in the ongoing war between America and Iran. Come, let us understand the complete mathematics:

• 28 February 2026: America and Israel started the war by attacking Iran.
• Iran’s action: ERan immediately closed the Strait of Hormuz. This route is the main source of supply of 20% of the world’s oil and gas.
• American Blockade: From April 13, America imposed a blockade on every ship going to Iranian ports. America says that no ship can carry oil from Iran.
• Action so far: The US has destroyed 8 ships, diverted 134 ships and allowed only 42 humanitarian aid ships to go.

When a ship tries to break the American blockade, the American military attacks it. This is the reason why these ships with Indian sailors also came under target.

What does India want?

The Indian government is adopting a very strict stance in this entire matter, but very thoughtfully. Because on one hand there are good relations with America, on the other hand the lives of Indian sailors are also at risk.

The very next day (June 10) of the attack, India called US Ambassador Jason Meeks to the Ministry of External Affairs and lodged a strong protest. Nagaraj Naidu, Additional Secretary (America) of the Ministry of External Affairs, talked for about 30 minutes and made it clear that threatening the lives of Indian sailors will not be tolerated.

India also raised this issue in the UN Security Council. India’s permanent representative Harish Parvatneni said, ‘We are strongly against attacks on merchant ships. Many of our citizens work in this area and their lives are in danger.

India’s three main demands:

1. Targeting of merchant ships and civilian infrastructure should be stopped immediately.
2. Movement on international waterways should be restored free and without hindrance.
3. A diplomatic solution to this entire crisis should be found and tension should be reduced.

The Indian government has also said that the attacks on merchant ships are a result of the ongoing conflict in the region.

Why have difficulties increased for India?

This situation has become difficult for India on three fronts:

First difficulty: lives of Indian sailors

Indian sailors have the largest number in the world. According to data from the Indian Shipping Ministry, the proportion of Indians among sailors working on global merchant ships is about 15-20 percent. Thousands of Indian sailors work every day on the sea routes from the Gulf countries to the Strait of Hormuz. This is the reason why when the US Army attacked three ships with Indian crew between June 8 and June 11, this matter emerged as a direct challenge for India.

This is not limited to just these three ships. A total of 10 Indian citizens have been killed since the war between America and Iran started. Manoj Yadav, general secretary of Forward Seamen’s Union of India (FSUI), says that if the ships did not follow US instructions, detaining them was a viable option, not precision missile attack on them. The question is whether the American Army was not aware of the nationality of the boats? And even if it was, why a direct missile attack?

Second problem: Crisis on India’s oil supply

The Strait of Hormuz is not a common sea route. This is the route for about 20 percent of the total oil and gas transport in the world, that is, about 20 million barrels of oil passes through this route every day. Now this route has been closed due to the war between America and Iran. Iran has closed Hormuz, while America has imposed a blockade on every ship going to Iranian ports. So far, the US military has destroyed 8 ships, forced 134 ships to change course and allowed only 42 humanitarian aid ships to pass.

India imports about 88-90 percent of its total energy needs. That means nine out of every ten units of energy comes from abroad:

• Crude Oil: About 40-50 percent of India’s total crude oil needs come through Hormuz. This means that out of every two barrels, the path of one barrel passes through this dangerous strait.
• LPG: This is even more worrying. 60 percent of India’s total LPG needs are imported. 90 percent of this import comes through Hormuz. This means that every cylinder that reaches your kitchen passes through this sea route. According to government data, there are more than 33 crore active domestic LPG connections in India and more than 10 crore Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana connections. If this supply stops, everything from kitchen to politics will be affected.
• LNG: About 50 percent of India’s gas requirement is dependent on imports and 55-60 percent of that import comes through Hormuz.
• Decline in oil imports: Before the war (February 2026), India’s oil imports were 5.2 million barrels per day. In March 2026, it fell to 4.5 million barrels per day i.e. a decline of 13.5 percent. In April it fell further to 4.4 million.

The Indian government claims that the country has about 76 days of crude oil stock and 25-30 days of LPG stock. But this stock is only for emergencies. If the Hormuz crisis lasts for months, then the shortage of LPG will start after 25-30 days. The government has already increased the price of domestic cooking gas by Rs 60 per cylinder and this is just the beginning.

Third difficulty: Diplomatic crisis with America

This is a most delicate matter. On one hand, America is a major strategic partner of India and on the other hand, Indian sailors are dying in attacks by the American army. India has to walk on two tightropes simultaneously, that is, it has to protest and also save relationships.

On June 10, 2026, the Government of India summoned Jason Meeks, Deputy Chief of Mission of the US Embassy, ​​to the Ministry of External Affairs. Nagaraj Naidu, Additional Secretary (America) of the Ministry of External Affairs, talked to him for about half an hour and lodged a ‘strong protest’. India made it clear that actions that endanger the lives of Indian sailors will not be tolerated.

The US Embassy tried to calm the issue by saying that they are in touch with India and are helping in finding the missing sailors. But the real question is will America stop these attacks? No such indication has been found yet. US CENTCOM says they are enforcing the Iranian blockade and will take action against ships that do not follow instructions.

After the American attacks, India may have to rethink its foreign policy. If a friendly country can target your citizens, how much can that friendship be trusted? This question is now being raised in Indian strategic circles.

Experts say that the situation is very critical. America and Iran have started attacking each other again. On June 10 also there were attacks between the two countries. Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, while America says that it has control. The Indian government is now making a new strategy. Talks are going on at the diplomatic level.

Not even 24 days have passed since the election results of 5 states have come and inflation is continuously hurting the pockets of the common man. From petrol-diesel to CNG and edible oil, the price graph seems to be moving upwards everywhere. Why did the prices which were stable during the elections suddenly start increasing? How much more shock is still left? After all, where will this speed stop? Understand complete accounting…

Petrol and Diesel: Box of inflation opened after four years

There was no increase in the prices of petrol and diesel for the last four years. But on May 15, 2026, the prices increased for the first time and then it seemed as if the trend had started. This is the fourth increase in the last 10 days. If we look at the latest figures, on May 25, petrol became costlier by Rs 2.61 per liter and diesel by Rs 2.71 per liter.

After this latest shock, the price of petrol in Delhi has reached Rs 102.12 per liter and the price of diesel has reached Rs 95.20 per liter. The real reason behind these increases is the ongoing geopolitical tension in West Asia. The ongoing conflict between Iran and America has greatly affected the prices of crude oil in the international market. Due to this war, the Indian government tried to protect the general public from the direct impact of the global crisis for 75 days, but during this time the government oil companies were suffering huge losses of about Rs 1,000 crore every day.

LPG: Relief for family members, but trouble for dhaba owners

The government has given big relief to domestic consumers on the LPG cylinder front. There has been no change in the price of 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder and its price in Delhi still remains at Rs 913. But those who run hotels, dhabas or restaurants have been hit hard by inflation. From May 1, 2026, there was a huge one-time increase of Rs 993 in the price of 19 kg commercial cylinder. After this increase, the price of a commercial cylinder in Delhi has increased to Rs 3,071.50.

CNG: Rs 6 per kg in 11 days

There is bad news for those who had turned to CNG to avoid petrol and diesel. On May 26, 2026, the price of CNG was once again increased by Rs 2 per kg, which is the fourth increase within two weeks. After this, the price of CNG in Delhi reached Rs 83.09 per kg. Since May 15, there has been an overall increase of about Rs 6 per kg on CNG. In NCR areas like Noida, Ghaziabad and Greater Noida, this price has reached Rs 91.70 per kg.

Edible oil: Inflation is spoiling the kitchen budget

This heat of inflation has now reached your kitchen directly. Edible oil companies are preparing to increase prices by 5 to 10 percent in the month of May itself. In the last few months, companies have already increased prices by Rs 8 to Rs 20 per liter. The reason for this is that due to the cost of crude oil, the demand for biofuel increases, due to which edible oils start being used more in making biodiesel. About 25 percent of edible oil is now being used in making biodiesel, due to which there is a shortage in the market and a rise in prices is being seen.

How much more is left to grow, where will this pace stop?

At present there is no sign of relief. According to Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, even after the current increase, the losses of government oil companies have not been completely eliminated. Even now they are incurring a loss of around Rs 600 crore every day.

Oil companies say that the increase made so far is able to compensate only 10% of their increased losses. In such a situation, it is considered certain that the prices will increase further in the coming 3-4 months. Due to the ongoing tension in West Asia, crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate. Whenever there is any hope of a peace agreement in the region, the prices of crude oil start coming down, but as soon as the talks prove to be inconclusive, uncertainty increases in the market and the prices start skyrocketing again.

Experts believe that there will be pressure on prices in the coming one or two months and they may remain at a high level. But if everything goes well, relief may start coming from July 2026 onwards and prices are expected to be largely normal by the end of the year. Real relief will come only when either the Strait of Hormuz opens completely or a concrete peace agreement is reached between America and Iran.

The government has the option of cutting excise duty, as was done on March 27, but this is a limited and temporary measure. If the global situation does not improve then the common man may have to bear this shock. The opposition has also started cornering the government on this issue and has alleged that the prices were deliberately kept stable during the elections and are being continuously increased as soon as the results are declared.

Today, 88 days have passed since the Iran-America war. On one hand in Doha, American and Iranian negotiators are tussling over the details of the peace agreement, while on the other hand, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) has launched new attacks on missile bases and mine-laying boats in southern Iran. Iran says that America ‘violated the ceasefire’ and it is ready to give a ‘heavy response’ to it. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, oil prices are hovering around $100 per barrel and the IMF has warned that if the war continues, the world could fall into recession. Let us understand how this war changed the map of the world in the last three months…

February 28: When everything changed overnight

On February 28, 2026, American and Israeli fighter planes together attacked Iran. Rockets, missiles and drones started raining simultaneously on big cities like Tehran, Kermanshah, Tabriz, Qom and Isfahan. US President Donald Trump himself announced by releasing a video on social media, ‘We have started a major military operation on Iran.’ The White House argued that Iran’s nuclear program and missile system had become a direct threat to American security.

But what Trump was considering as ‘a short and victorious war’, turned into a regional storm in three months that broke everyone’s back, from the oil supply chain to the common man’s kitchen. According to BBC report, there were three big explosions in the downtown area of ​​Iran’s capital Tehran, the sound of which was heard several kilometers away.

Iran gave a befitting reply

Iran was also not one to remain silent. Its elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) immediately retaliated and fired missiles and drones at US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and Saudi Arabia. According to the US Defense Department, America has so far targeted more than 10,000 Iranian military targets, while Israel has hit more than 3,000 targets. On the other hand, Iran claims that it has retaliated more than 87 times so far.

This war engulfed Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and the entire Gulf region. According to Al Jazeera, by May 20, 2026, 3,468 people had been killed and more than 26,500 injured in Iran alone. In Lebanon, 3,042 people died and more than 9,300 were injured. 26 soldiers in Israel, 13 in America and more than 12 in Gulf countries lost their lives.

Hormuz blockade and crazy oil prices

The biggest and most immediately visible impact of this war was on the Strait of Hormuz. This is a narrow sea route, but about 20% of the world’s sea oil passes through it. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 20.9 million barrels of oil would pass through this route daily in the first half of 2025.

Iran blockaded this route in the initial days of the war, after which the oil supply chain was completely disrupted. According to data from trade intelligence firm Kpler, only 144 commercial ships passed through Hormuz between March 1 and March 23, a massive 95% drop from before the war. As a result, the price of Brent crude jumped to $ 138 per barrel in late April. At present, on May 27, it is hovering around $100. According to EIA, production of about 10.5 million barrels per day of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain came to a standstill in April.

‘Perfect storm’ for India

India imports more than 85% of its crude oil needs and was worst hit by this war. The blockade of Hormuz directly hit India’s supply line. Constrained, Indian refineries turned to Africa and Latin America and started buying oil from Nigeria, Angola, Brazil and Venezuela. Not only this, after getting a temporary exemption from America, India also started buying crude directly from Iran for the first time after seven years. But this did not bring relief.

The burden of rising oil prices in the international market has finally fallen on the common Indian consumer. Government oil companies (OMCs) increased the prices of petrol and diesel for the fourth consecutive time in May 2026. In Delhi, petrol crossed Rs 102.12 per liter and diesel crossed Rs 95.20 per liter. ONGC Director (Exploration) Sushma Rawat told ANI, ‘The government gave relief to the public for 75 days, during which the price was not increased. But oil companies were incurring losses of around Rs 1,000 crore every day. How long can this be tolerated?’

Expensive oil also broke the back of the rupee. The rupee has continuously weakened against the dollar since the war started. According to media reports, the rupee has fallen by more than 7% so far in 2026 and on May 27 it reached the level of 95.75. Experts say that it may soon cross 100.

Shattering world: Crack in NATO, China’s advantage

This war has once again divided the countries of the world into two camps. On one side is America, which expected open support from its NATO allies, but exactly the opposite happened. Powerful European countries like France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland clearly refused to support America in this war. Spain did not even allow American fighter planes to use its airspace. Due to this resentment, the Trump administration has even threatened to take action against these ‘incompetent’ associates.

On the other side are China and Russia. China, which is already the largest buyer of Iranian oil, seems to be benefiting from this crisis as well. It is continuously buying oil from Iran at huge discounts and is challenging the supremacy of the dollar by paying through Yuan or barter system. Experts believe that the longer this war continues, the more China’s bargaining power will increase.

Fear of brakes and recession on the economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had warned in April that if this war continues any longer, the world could enter a recession. Even in its most optimistic estimate, the IMF has reduced global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%. But in the second picture, global growth may fall to 2% and inflation may go above 6%.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that more than 80 energy facilities have been damaged during the war and their recovery may take up to 2 years. The IEA has also warned that even if the war ends next month, the oil market will remain ‘severely undersupplied’ until October 2026.

According to IMF, Iran’s GDP alone may shrink by 6.1% this year. At the same time, the economies of Gulf countries like Qatar (8.6%), Iraq (6.8%), Kuwait (0.6%) and Bahrain (0.5%) are also expected to be adversely affected.

A fragile compromise or towards disaster?

Dr. Prosenjit Biswas, expert on foreign affairs and professor of NEHU, says, ‘After 87 days of this conflict, now efforts for peace are intensified from both the sides. A delicate agreement is being negotiated in Qatar’s capital Doha, under which the Strait of Hormuz will be gradually opened and America will remove its naval blockade. In return, Iran would get access to billions of dollars of its frozen assets and be allowed to export limited oil. The most important issue is Iran’s nuclear program, in which Tehran can surrender its highly enriched uranium within 60 days.

On May 27, 2026, the US military once again carried out ‘defensive attacks’ in southern Iran, in which missile launch sites and mine-laying boats were targeted. Iran has warned of a strong response, calling it a ‘blatant violation of the ceasefire’.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during his visit to India that ‘it may take a few more days for the deal to be made.’ At the same time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei says that ‘the hands of the clock cannot be turned back.’ Trump himself wrote on social media, ‘Either there will be a good deal or we will have to deal with it in another way.’

The world is watching with bated breath. At what point will this war, which has shown the reality of the price of oil and the division of the world, finally stop? At present the answer to this question is hidden in the waves of Hormuz itself.

The date of 28 February 2026 changed the political map of the entire world. On this day, America and Israel together launched the biggest military attack on Iran. But within just two months, a new and bigger battle broke out on the war front. Now the fight is not against Iran, but has become a litmus test for the mutual relations between America and Israel. On one hand, US President Donald Trump wants a deal to end the war, while on the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is adamant on continuing the attacks. The phone conversation between the two leaders on 20 May 2026 was so intense that it was described as ‘difficult’ and ‘dramatic’. Despite this, America and Israel will not become enemies, why?

That night of the phone call, when ‘Bibi’s hair was on fire’

On the evening of May 20, there was a heated argument over the phone for an hour between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump told Netanyahu that a ‘Letter of Intent’ is being prepared with Iran under the mediation of America, Qatar and Pakistan, once signed, the war will formally end. Then there will be discussions for 30 days on issues like Hormuz Strait and Iran’s nuclear program. But Netanyahu became furious after hearing this from Trump.

According to the NYT report, an American source said that ‘after that call, Bibi’s hair was on fire.’ Netanyahu said that instead of a deal, the army should carry out more attacks so that Iran becomes completely weak. He bluntly told Trump that stopping the attacks was ‘a big mistake’.

Why are Trump and Netanyahu clashing with each other?

Foreign affairs expert and JNU professor Dr. Rajan Kumar says, ‘This conflict is not just between two leaders, but about two different strategies. This war has now become a political and economic headache for Trump. In retaliation, Iran has almost completely blocked the Strait of Hormuz, due to which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply has come to a standstill. The result is that petrol prices in America are skyrocketing and Trump’s approval rating is falling. Americans’ confidence in Trump’s economic policies has declined sharply in April 2026.

On the other hand, Netanyahu’s stance is absolutely strict. They have three conditions:

1. All the enriched uranium of Iran should go out of the country.
2. Iran should end its ballistic missile program.
3. Iran should stop providing support to armed groups it supports throughout the Middle East (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi in Yemen).

Netanyahu believes that making a deal without these conditions would be like giving Iran a chance to escape.

Despite this, why does America not step back from helping Israel?

This is not the first time that an American President has been angry with some Israeli action. But the interesting thing is that despite this sourness that happens from time to time, the American aid to Israel never stops. What is the reason? The reason for this is not just Netanyahu, but the unbreakable nexus of American politics and strategy, which has been continuously getting stronger for the last 78 years.

1. Strategic Asset: An ‘Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier’

For America, Israel is not an ordinary ally, but a very important ‘strategic asset’. Since the Six-Day War of 1967, American policy makers had considered Israel as a strong weapon of their strategy in the Middle East. This was the period when the Soviet Union was strengthening its hold in this region by supporting the Arab countries. In such a situation, Israel emerged as a force for America that could stop this influence. The then US Secretary of State Alexander Haig had even said that ‘Israel is the largest American aircraft carrier in the world, which cannot be sunk.’

The Yom Kippur War of 1973 proved decisive. When Israel was simultaneously attacked by Egypt and Syria, America started providing emergency military supplies in large quantities. This incident made it clear that America’s first task is to save Israel’s existence. After this, from the late 1970s, American aid changed from loans to grants and then this trend never stopped.

2. From IPAC to billions of dollars of military aid

Every year about $3.8 billion in military aid goes to Israel from America. It’s not just money. This is a fund from which Israel has to spend 80 percent of the money on purchasing weapons from American companies. This means clearly – Israel is a sure and biggest customer for the American military industry.

This ‘aid’ given to Israel is actually a subsidy for the American defense industry and Israel is also a testing ground for new American weapons. The package of military aid given by the Obama administration to Israel worth $38 billion was the result of this thinking. No matter who the President was – Trump, Biden or Obama, this figure never decreased.

Another big force works behind this – American Israel Public Affairs Committee i.e. AIPAC. This is such a powerful lobbying group that has a deep hold on the leaders of both Democratic and Republican parties. But experts believe that AIPAC does not create any new strategy, rather it strengthens the already existing idea of ​​American interests and Israel’s importance.

3. Not just money, technology is also a game

Dr. Rajan Kumar says that this relationship is not just about transaction, but also about technology and innovation. Take the Iron Dome missile defense system. America has contributed more than 1.6 billion dollars in making it. But who really benefited from it? American companies made its components and software. To put it simply, this is a ‘profit-dependent conflict structure’, that is, the more war, the more sales. This is the reason why senior officials like former CIA chief and former Defense Minister also join the boards of defense companies after retirement, so that this relationship deepens.

Netanyahu himself now wants to reduce this dependence. He recently said that he wants to bring American military aid to zero in 10 years and make Israel self-reliant. A big reason behind this is that Israel’s image is weakening among the American public. According to a Pew Research Center survey, about 60 percent of Americans now view Israel negatively.

So will the relationship between America and Israel break?

Foreign affairs expert and retired JNU professor A. Of. Pasha says, ‘This is not just a rift between two leaders, but the face of American politics which has remained the same for the last 78 years. No matter how big the conflict may be, the triple rope of strategy, money and technology tied at the foundation of this relationship is not going to be broken so easily.

At present, the eyes of the whole world are on whether this political tug of war between Trump and Netanyahu reaches a historic deal, or whether another dangerous military attack is announced against Iran.

The Indian Rupee is currently under heavy pressure and is continuously touching new record lows. On May 19, 2026, it reached the level of 96.52 against the dollar, which is the lowest level till date. At the beginning of the year 2026, the rupee was around 89, but till now it has weakened by 6-7%. There are many global and domestic reasons behind this decline. Tension between Iran and America has pushed crude oil prices above $105-107 per barrel. India imports 85% of its oil needs, hence rising oil prices have increased the import bill and the demand for dollars has increased. On the other hand, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are withdrawing money from Indian markets. So far Rs 2.65 lakh crore has been withdrawn in 2026.

In such a situation, there is only one question in everyone’s mind – will the rupee cross 100? Talking about this, many experts have given their opinion. Let us know the opinion of 5 experts, out of which 2 are in favor of the rupee crossing Rs 100, 2 are against and 1 is of neutral opinion…

In favor: These experts believe that the rupee can cross 100

Speaking to ANI, former UN advisor and economist Santosh Mehrotra said, ‘In the last three months, the rupee has fallen from below 90 to around 96 per dollar. This will have its own impact on inflation. He further warned, ‘If the current pressure continues, the rupee can very easily touch Rs 100 per dollar in the next quarter.’ His opinion strengthens the possibility of the rupee crossing Rs 100.

Currency expert K.N. Dey also does not rule out the possibility of the rupee crossing Rs 100. Speaking to ANI, he said, ‘The speed at which the rupee has fallen since May 11 has shocked the market, yet both the regulator and North Block are silent.’ He further said, ‘Since there is no bottom in sight, estimating the stability point is just a guess. Psychological slide towards 100 is also possible now. His statement explains the sudden turmoil in the market and the rapid pace of decline.

In opposition: These experts do not believe that the 100 mark is likely to be crossed any time soon.

Finance analyst and FX strategist Dheeraj Nim believes that RBI will not allow the rupee to reach the level of 100 anytime soon. Talking to a TV channel, he said, ‘We do not think that RBI will allow the rupee to go to the level of 100 at the moment.’ ANZ Research expects the rupee to end the year at 97.5 per dollar, indicating a move away from the 100 mark despite weakening from current levels.

Mitul Kotecha, Head of FX and EM Macro Strategy Asia (Barclays), told Business Standard, ‘It is not our forecast that the rupee will touch Rs 100 per dollar.’ However, he also admitted that the pace of rupee depreciation has been much faster and more shocking than he had anticipated. He said, ‘We have already crossed the levels which were earlier considered to be a forecast of recession.’ Nevertheless, he has clearly said that the level of 100 is not included in his official forecast.

Neutral: This expert does not consider controlled decline a matter of concern

Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, takes a balanced view on the rupee crossing Rs 100. In an interview to ANI, he said, ‘One day will we see the rupee going into three digits? There is a lot of possibility. However, his emphasis is on how this degradation occurs. He said, ‘If this is systematic depreciation, it ensures that our economy continues to compete.’ He believes that ‘rupee keeps falling against foreign currencies’ and if this happens without major changes and in an orderly manner then it is not a matter of concern, but a coordination has to be done to keep the economy competitive.

RBI’s role is important amid the fall of rupee

Whether the rupee will cross 100 or not will largely depend on oil prices and the trend of foreign investment. If tensions in West Asia ease, the rupee may come back to the level of 92-93. At the same time, RBI still has foreign exchange reserves of about 700 billion dollars, on the basis of which it can prevent excessive fluctuations in the rupee. However, if global conditions worsen further, the psychological level of 100 could become a real possibility.

At present, experts’ opinions are divided, but everyone agrees that the coming months are going to be very challenging for the Indian economy.

The relationship between Mumbai and Vada Pav is not a delicate one. This is the snack which is the fuel for the speed of Mumbai, the support that fills the stomach of the laborer and also the weakness of the millionaire businessman. But these days there is a bad news for Mumbaikars. His own Vada Pav is now becoming heavier on his pocket than before. The price of Vada Pav has increased in the city in the last few weeks, due to which this cheap and filling snack has now reached Rs 25 to 30. Earlier, Vada Pav was available for Rs 15 to 20, now one has to shell out more for it. But why was there not such a strong discussion on the increase in prices of oil, gas and other things as is happening on Vada Pav?

Not just an increase of five rupees, Mumbai’s ‘lifeline’ hit

This is not just an increase of 5 to 10 rupees, but it is an attack on the economy and sentiment which connects crores of Mumbaikars every day. It is noteworthy that this crisis has arisen due to the huge increase in the prices of commercial LPG gas cylinders and skyrocketing prices of raw materials. The ongoing tension in West Asia and its affected fuel supply has made the situation even more serious. The result was that in the beginning of 2026, Vada Pav sellers increased its price by Rs 5.

According to the FPJ report in March 2026, Vada Pav was being sold at Rs 25 per piece in many areas. Now latest reports suggest that this price has reached Rs 25 to 30. Due to the LPG crisis, there has been an increase of 10 to 20 percent in the prices of food items. The price of bread has increased by Rs 5, which has directly affected snacks like Vada Pav, Misal Pav and Sandwich.

Why are the prices of Vada Pav increasing?

There is not just one, but many big reasons behind the rising prices of Vada Pav:

• There has been a huge jump in the prices of commercial LPG cylinders in the last few months. Due to this, a large number of small hotels and street food vendors are either on the verge of closure or have removed many items from their menu. Baban Yadav, who runs a vada pav shop in a suburb of Mumbai, has increased the price of vada pav by Rs 3 due to the increase in the price of pav. They have even stopped frying samosas.
• The prices of edible oil have increased by Rs 30 to Rs 40 per liter. The prices of raw materials like gram flour, potatoes and chillies have also increased, due to which traders are facing huge losses.
• BMC has decided to ban the use of wood and coal in bakeries, which is likely to further increase the cost of production of pav. In protest against this decision, the Bakery Association says that due to this the price of pav may increase from Rs 3 to Rs 5 per piece, which will have a direct impact on the price of Vada Pav.

This is just the beginning. The shortage of LPG has brought Mumbai’s bakery industry to its knees. Out of 1200 bakeries in the city, about 600 bakeries produce about 32 lakh pavs daily. But due to shortage of gas, these bakeries are on the verge of closure, due to which the entire supply chain is in danger.

How many people eat Vada Pav every day and how big is this business?

Vada pav is a large and strong part of Mumbai’s economy, although there is no official figure for it. According to FPJ report, around 10,000 to 20,000 people eat Vada Pav every day in the city. According to an estimate, there are around 5,000 vada pav stalls in Mumbai. At the same time, according to the report of Food and Wine, there are more than 20,000 Vada Pav stalls in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). There is a daily turnover of about Rs 1.6 crore from this informal industry.

Food and Wine report states that the city’s daily consumption of pav is more than 80 lakh, out of which about 60 lakh pavs are supplied to street vendors and food shops. Big brands like Goli Vada Pav sell more than 70,000 vada pavs daily. For more than 70 lakh passengers of Mumbai Suburban Railway, Vada Pav is a cheap and quick meal, which has become a part of their daily routine. At the same time, according to BMS.CO.IN’s report ‘My Mumbai and My Vada Pav’, 1 lakh Vada Pav are eaten daily in Mumbai.

How many families are supported by one Vada Pav?

Vada Pav has provided financial independence to countless families by becoming a source of livelihood. From a small street vendor to a big brand, this snack provides employment to millions of people. According to ‘My Mumbai and My Vada Pav’ report, the setup cost can range from Rs 50,000 to Rs 5,00,000, but with the right location and taste, profits start immediately. A vendor sells 500 to 1000 vada pav daily. A vendor saves around Rs 8 on every vada pav, which becomes a good earning in a day.

You will be surprised to hear the earnings of some famous stalls. Many vendors earn up to Rs 2.8 lakh per month, which is more than a job in a big IT company. A video had gone viral on social media, in which a vada pav seller told that he earns up to Rs 24 lakh annually, hearing which even many people with big jobs were surprised.

Mumbai’s famous ‘Ashok Vada Pav’ shop does a business of Rs 30 lakh every month. This shop, now run by the third generation, is proof of how vada pav can change the fortunes of a family. According to an estimate, around 2 lakh delivery workers in Mumbai supply fresh pav daily on bicycles and motorcycles. This shows how big is the supply chain related to this one snack and how many people’s stomachs are connected to it.

How did Mumbai’s identity become known and ‘Burger of the poor’ emerged out of compulsion?

The story of Vada Pav begins in the 1960s, when a man named Ashok Vaidya set up a stall outside Dadar Railway Station in Mumbai. He would see hundreds of mill workers passing by during the day, who neither had much money nor time to eat. Just one thing was needed which was cheap, could be eaten quickly and also filled the stomach. Then an idea came to Ashok Vaidya’s mind that why not dip the spicy potato curry in gram flour and fry it and serve it with chutney after placing it in the middle of the pav? It was from here that Vada Pav was born, which today the world knows as ‘Poor’s Burger’ or ‘Bombay Burger’.

In the 1970s and 80s, when Mumbai’s textile mills started closing and thousands of workers became unemployed, many of them adopted Ashok Vaidya’s model and set up their own vada pav vendors. This snack emerged out of the compulsion of the workers and became a source of employment for the unemployed. The story does not end here. Bala Saheb Thackeray also inspired Marathi people to become entrepreneurs in the 1960s, just as South Indians were running Udupi restaurants.

Girgaon’s ‘Borkar Vada Pav’ is the result of this inspiration, which is today being run by the third generation and sells 500 Vada Pav daily. Gradually Vada Pav became the identity of Mumbai. In 2024, ‘Taste Atlas’ ranked Vada Pav 39th in the list of the world’s best sandwiches. It was no longer just a snack, but became a symbol of Marathi identity and pride.

What effect will this inflation have on Mumbaikars?

The rising price of Vada Pav is not just a figure. Its direct and deep impact is on lakhs of laborers, mill workers and daily wage laborers of Mumbai, for whom Vada Pav is a reliable and cheap meal of the day. The rising prices of commercial LPG have hit small shopkeepers and street vendors the most. There are reports of about 50 percent hotels being temporarily closed. Many street vendors have either closed their shops or limited their menus.

An estimated 30 percent of hotels and restaurants in Mumbai are currently either closed or running with very limited resources. This rising inflation has most affected that section of Mumbai, which is already struggling with the rising cost of living. Customers of a vada pav seller said that the increased price will hit the poor and migrant workers the most as vada pav is a common man’s food. This is a mirror in which the soul of Mumbai resides. This is a taste of the city’s struggle, its pace and its spirit.

Iran War Impact on Indian Economy: The impact of the Iran-America-Israel war has now directly reached the farmers of India. In March 2026, the production of fertilizer and urea in the country has fallen by 24.6 percent as compared to a year ago i.e. March 2025, which means about one-fourth less fertilizer was produced. This data has been released by the Commerce Ministry of the Central Government.

Urea production started decreasing due to rust

Fertilizer production has fallen by 24.6 percent in March 2026 as compared to March 2025, that is, about one fourth less fertilizer was produced. Natural gas is required to make urea. This gas largely comes from the Middle East i.e. Gulf countries, but due to the Iran war, the movement in Hormuz i.e. the sea route through which Gulf oil and gas goes around the world, almost came to a standstill. About one-third of the world’s fertilizer passes through this route. If the road was closed then gas did not come and if gas did not come then urea could not be made.

Now the Kharif season i.e. the time for sowing of paddy, maize and soybean is about to come. Urea is needed the most in this season. More than 45 percent of the country’s population is dependent on agriculture. If there is less urea, then either the farmer will have to buy fertilizer at an expensive price or the crop will be less. In both the circumstances, the farmer is at a loss.

Not only fertilizers but other sectors also faltered

Crude oil production has decreased by 5.7 percent. Coal has come down by 4 percent. Electricity production also decreased by 0.5 percent. Less coal means less electricity, this is a direct connection. Domestic production of natural gas increased by 6.4 percent, this has brought some relief. Steel i.e. iron and steel production has increased by 2.2 percent. Cement remained above 4 percent as construction work on roads and houses continued in the country.

The combined index of eight major industries fell by 0.4 percent in March 2026. It increased by only 2.6 percent in the entire financial year 2025-26, which is much less than in the last several years. Now that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, the figures for April and May may be worse. The government will have to arrange for alternative supply of urea as soon as possible, otherwise both farmers and inflation can become a problem.

Condition of 8 big sectors of India amid Iran war

• Coal – 4% fall – impact on supply of imported coal due to disruption in shipping routes.
• Fertilizer – 24.6% fall – the biggest shock. Production halted due to stoppage of supply of urea and phosphate from Iran
• Crude oil – fell 5.7% – tension on Hormuz affected crude oil supply to domestic refineries
• Electricity — decreased by 0.5% – Coal shortage and expensive LNG depressed electricity production slightly.
• Natural Gas – increased by 6.4% – Domestic production gave relief but LNG imports became expensive.
• Refinery products – increased by only 0.1%. Despite the war, the refineries somehow kept running, a big relief.
• Steel – increased by 2.2% – domestic demand remained strong, direct impact of war less.
• Cement – increased by 4% – infra project continued, demand remained in the market.

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When US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in the Iran war on April 8, the first thing you might have thought was that oil and gas would now become cheaper. The old happy days will return again, but wait… you are wrong. Even though the ceasefire has opened the Strait of Hormuz, it will take months for oil and gas prices to come down. Now the question arises that when will we get relief from this shortage? So let’s understand in the explainer…

Question 1: How much did the prices of oil and gas fall after the opening of the Strait of Hormuz?
answer: The news of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire on April 8 caused a significant decline in global energy prices, but this decline has still not reached pre-war levels. According to Reuters reports, Brent crude oil prices fell by about 15-16 percent to $ 93.73 per barrel after the ceasefire announcement, which was at a high of $ 110-120 in the previous days.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also fell to $94.52, a decline of about $18. Natural gas futures have declined by about 5 percent. Its impact on LPG prices in India is still visible indirectly. Commercial LPG has become a little cheaper, but the subsidized prices of domestic cylinders have not yet reduced, because imports have not yet normalized completely.

Question 2: Then oil and gas will be available cheap and there will be no shortage?
answer: No, gas will neither become completely cheap nor will the shortage completely end. This is only initial relief, not complete relief. Reports from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) make it clear that despite the opening of Hormuz, fuel prices may remain high for several months as it will take time to fully restore the supply chain. The war has caused heavy damage to oil-gas fields, refineries and storage plants in the Persian Gulf, especially Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas hub, which produces 20 percent of the world’s LNG.

Experts say that opening of Hormuz is just the ‘first step’, but the entire Persian Gulf energy system will be normal within months. 60 percent of the demand for LPG in India comes from the Middle East, so the shortage will continue. Black market is running in Delhi and delay in delivery continues. Some ships are now transiting, but cheap and plentiful gas will not be available until full supplies are restored.

Question 3: Why will these problems not end even after the opening of Hormuz?
answer: Even after the opening of Hormuz, the problems will not end because the war has scattered not only the road but the entire energy infrastructure. Oil-gas wells, pipelines, refineries and storage facilities have been damaged. Thousands of tankers are stuck, workers are scattered and repair work is pending.

EIA has clearly stated that ‘full restoration will take months’ as it takes time to restart production, repair damaged plants and clear the backlog. Ras Laffan Hub’s 17 percent capacity is still in loss and may take years to repair. There will be a shortage of LPG in importing countries like India because 90 percent of the supply comes through this route and alternative sources (America, Russia) are not yet ready on that large a scale. The risk premium in prices will remain due to supply disruptions caused by the war, even if the route is opened.

Question 4: When will gas and oil be available normally?
answer: Experts believe that it will take several months to get gas and oil normally. Some production may begin within weeks, but it will take 3-6 months or more for the entire supply chain and production levels to return to pre-war levels.

According to the EIA report, it will take months for the Strait of Hormuz to be completely restored. According to media reports, it may take 6 weeks to transport the 170 million barrels of oil stuck in tankers to the refiners of Asia. It will take even more time to repair some plants in Qatar and UAE. The situation of LPG in India will be completely normal only when these global flows are restored. At present the government is increasing alternative imports and domestic production, but real relief will have to wait.

On the morning of 7 April 2026, Iran broke the backbone of Saudi Arabia i.e. attacked Saudi Arabia’s industrial city Al Jubail. Loud explosions, high rising flames and clouds of smoke were seen in the city. Saudi Arabia’s air defense system destroyed 7 ballistic missiles in the air, whose debris fell near energy facilities. At present, damage assessment is going on, but just as a person is confined to a wheelchair when his spine is broken, something similar can happen to Saudi Arabia. How? Let us understand in the explainer…

Question 1: What is Al Jubail Industrial City and why is it important for Saudi?

answer: Al Jubail is the largest industrial city of Saudi Arabia, located in the Eastern Province. It is spread over an area of ​​more than 1,000 square kilometers and is considered the world’s largest petrochemical hub. There are plants of giants like Saudi Arabian Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), which produce about 7% of the world’s total petrochemical production. Apart from this, Saudi Aramco’s 4.60 lakh barrel per day capacity SATORP Refinery, Amiral Petrochemical Complex, Sadara Chemical, Carbon Capture Hub, Cogeneration Plant and Power-Water Plant are also located here.

The city contributes 7-12% to Saudi GDP and accounts for more than 11% of non-oil GDP. Under Vision 2030, it helps Saudi to reduce its dependence on oil. Bethel Company called it a miracle of engineering. Here things like steel, gasoline, fertilizers and plastics are made which run the supply chain of the entire world.

Question 2: Now the biggest dilemma is why did Iran attack here?

answer: This attack was a retaliation to Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars Petrochemical Plant. Iran had already warned that if its energy infrastructure was attacked, the petrochemical hubs of Gulf countries would be the target. This attack is a new phase of tension between the Strait of Hormuz.

Question 3: What does it mean when an industrial city is destroyed? How big a blow will Saudi face?

answer: Foreign expert and NEHU professor Prosenjit Biswas says, ‘The destruction of Al Jubail does not just mean the loss of one city, but it also means shaking the backbone of the entire Saudi economy. Petrochemicals like polymers, methanol and urea produced from here run industries around the world. If plants like SABIC or SATORP suffer serious damage, production may stop. Damage assessment is currently underway, so there are no exact figures, but if 7% of SABIC’s global output is affected, Saudi will suffer a loss of billions of dollars. Vision 2030 projects will be affected, non-oil GDP will fall and employment will be affected. The supply chain is already disrupted due to the fire.

Question 4: What will be the overall impact on Saudi Arabia?

answer: Prosenjit Biswas believes that Saudi Arabia will be hit in three major ways:

• Economic: Petrochemical exports may decline, which will blow Saudi’s diversification plan.
• Energy Security: This is the second major blow after the Hormuz closure. Earlier Saudi was benefiting from Hormuz because of the East-West Pipeline, but now the domestic industrial hub has been attacked.
• Political: Saudi is silent till now, but increasing regional tension will increase the pressure on its defense system.

No major production halt has been confirmed yet.

Question 5: What effect will this attack have on the entire world?

answer: Prosenjit Biswas says that this attack is a big threat to the world’s petrochemical supply. If SABIC’s production is affected, prices of plastics, fertilizers, medicines and auto parts may increase. Global inflation may increase by 1.5-2%. Oil prices are already high (Brent around $110), this attack could lead to further increases. The economies of Asia, Europe and Africa will be affected because 20% of oil and LNG comes from the Gulf. If the fire spreads, carbon capture projects may also come to a halt, which will affect global climate goals.