By Admin 
NITI Aayog Report on Economy: NITI Aayog’s report shows that India’s trade is certainly growing, but it is not balanced. In the quarter January–March 2026, total trade reached $1.84 trillion and registered a growth of 5.4%, but the thing to note here is that imports (6.5%) are growing faster than exports (4.2%). This means that India’s external dependence is still high and domestic production is not growing as fast in the global market.
Goods trade under pressure, service sector becomes support
Data from the report show that exports of merchandise declined by 2.8% to $112 billion, while imports increased by 11.9% to $195.5 billion. This is a direct indication that the manufacturing sector is still under pressure, but the service sector, especially IT and digital services, has taken over the situation. Service exports increased by 9% to $111 billion and generated a surplus of $60.4 billion. This surplus is keeping India’s overall trade deficit under control.
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Trade deficit under control but risks continue
Overall, if goods and services are included, there was a loss of 23.15 billion dollars, which is the second lowest of the year. The graphs of the report also show that the deficit has reduced somewhat in the second half of the year, but this improvement cannot be considered permanent, because it is largely dependent on the service sector.
What does the export-import pattern say?
According to the report, sectors like electrical machinery, mineral fuels and nuclear reactors are leading in India’s exports. Iron-steel (18.4%) and vehicles (14.2%) showed good growth. At the same time, there was a decline in gems and jewelery which is a sign of weak global demand.
The biggest jump in imports came in the categories related to gold and silver (82%) while there was a decline in mineral fuels (-11%) and iron-steel (-16.8%). This means that the pattern of domestic consumption and investment is also changing.
Trade Partners- Connected to new countries but dependence does not end
This point is important in the report that India is now gradually expanding its business to different countries.
The export share of top 10 countries has decreased to 50%. At the same time, concentration in imports has also reduced, but the ground reality is that imports from China and Russia are still increasing. Dependence on China remains a big risk, especially in the manufacturing and pharma sectors.
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Service sector is continuously gaining strength
- India will become the world’s 8th largest services exporter in 2025.
- Service exports to increase almost 3 times between 2015 and 2025
- Growth rate was 10.3% (more than global 6.6%)
An important indication of the report is that now India’s service exports are no longer dependent only on America.
- North America’s share decreased
- Europe’s share increased
- This diversity gives stability in the long run.
Pharma Sector- Strength in Volume! weakness in value
The main focus of the report is on pharma and this is where the biggest contradiction is visible. India supplies cheap generic medicines to the world.
- Africa – 50%
- America – 40%
- UK – 25% requirement
But India’s share in high-value segments like biologics, vaccines, advanced therapies is very low (about 0.6%). Other than this…
- 65% dependence on China for API
- R&D expenditure only 7% (global 15–20%)
- That means India is big in volume but lags behind in technology and value.
Global trends – prices and policy pressures
The report shows that the prices of crude oil, coal and precious metals continue to fluctuate.
- Gold and silver prices increased
- Energy prices also under pressure
- Also, steps like US-China trade movement, WTO uncertainty and new FTA show that the global trade environment is changing rapidly.
According to experts, if India wants to become strong in trade in the coming times, then increasing exports alone will not suffice. Big bets will have to be made on high-value products, technology and R&D.